Draft day arrives: O's pick No. 1 for second time in team history

When you select with the No. 1 pick in the First-Year Player Draft, as the Orioles will do tonight, you could select a future Hall of Famer like Ken Griffey Jr. or Chipper Jones. You could also select Matt Bush, Matt Anderson or Brien Taylor.

Who? Exactly. There are no guarantees, no sure things, no such thing as can't miss. They can all miss.

You aim for the stars and hope you don't just produce wind with a big swing and miss. But the baseball draft is very different from all others. You hope over a draft of 40 rounds that your team can select a few players who will be regulars. Most of those 40 will never see the majors.

But still, it's 1/1 for the Orioles this year, and it's just second the time they've had the top pick. The draft begins at 7 p.m. tonight and will be televised live on MLB Network.

"The vast majority of first-rounders wind up being solid players," said MLBPipeline.com's Jim Callis. "I think most of the 1/1 picks are at least solid regulars for a number of years. Most of the No. 1 picks - you are dreaming on a Hall of Famer, you are hoping for an All-Star and most of them at least give you a pretty solid player for a few years."

Beyond talent, can the player a team selects deal with higher expectations than ever in a social-media age in which every 0-for-10 gets dissed? There is a lot to consider.

The draft has been a three-day event since 2009. Selections through pick No. 78 will be made tonight, and the Orioles will have three of those picks: No. 1, No. 42 and No. 71. The draft resumes Tuesday with rounds three through 10 beginning at 1 p.m., and the Orioles have the first pick that day, No. 79 overall. The draft concludes Wednesday at noon with rounds 4-40.

The Orioles' total pool amount to sign its top 10 round picks is $13,821,300. It is the second-largest amount for any team. The Diamondbacks, with seven of the top 75 picks, has a pool of just over $16 million.

The slot amount available to sign the top pick is $8,415,300. The Orioles may wind up signing that player for an amount under that and using the savings on another player. This is what teams have done in recent drafts.

In 2017, the Twins selected high school shortstop Royce Lewis with that No. 1 pick. The slot amount was $7.77 million, and Lewis signed for $6.725 million, a savings of $1.045 million. Last year, Detroit took Auburn right-hander Casey Mize with the first pick. The slot amount was $8.096 million, and he signed for $7.5 million, so the club saved nearly $600,000. Savings on any pick can be used on others. But if any player picked is not signed, the slot amount for that pick just goes away. Players in rounds 11-40 can sign for up to $125,000. A team can go over that amount, but any overage comes out of its bonus pool. A team can go up to five percent over its total pool amount and pay a penalty. Any team exceeding the pool amount by more than five percent must give up a first-round draft pick, and no team is going to do that.

Here are the listed slot amounts for the O's top picks:
Round 1 (No. 1) - $8,415,300
Round 2 (No. 42) - $1,771,100
Competitive Balance Round B (No. 71) - $884,200
Round 3 (No. 79) - $780,400
Round 4 (No. 108) - $538,200
Round 5 (No. 138) - $402,000
Round 6 (No. 168) - $301,600
Round 7 (No. 198) - $235,100
Round 8 (No. 228) - $186,300
Round 9 (No. 258) - $159,200
Round 10 (No 288) - $147,900

The consensus top three players are Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com have the players rated in that order. ESPN's Keith Law has it Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt.

Tonight will be just the second time the Orioles select No. 1 overall in the draft, which began in 1965. In 1989 they selected LSU right-hander Ben McDonald. Tonight will produce just their third pick No. 3 or higher. The O's took Manny Machado No. 3 in 2010. They have made 10 selections in the draft's top five picks over the years, with the most recent being pitcher Kevin Gausman at No. 4 in 2012.

My take: I haven't seen these players in action, so my opinion is based on what I've read and the opinions I've heard from scouts and writers. One reason I like Rutschman for the No. 1 pick is how well he played this year.

Last year, Rutschman hit .408 with nine homers and 83 RBIs in leading Oregon State to the college World Series title. That team would produce three position players drafted in the top 37 last June with picks at No. 4, No. 20 and No. 37, which was Cadyn Grenier by the Orioles. So this year, with those three players gone from the Beavers' lineup and all the focus on Rutschman, he hit .411/.575/.751 with 17 homers and 58 RBIs. He did better.

Cal first sacker Andrew Vaughn is considered the best hitter in this draft. But Rutschman had better stats this year in the Pac 12 conference. Vaughn hit .347/.508/.622 with six homers and 21 RBIs in conference-only games. Rutschman hit .419/.578/.731 with eight homers and 31 RBIs in Pac 12 play.

The numbers are there along with the defense, leadership and great makeup. Is Rutschman a future star? Again, no guarantees, but he looks like the best player in this draft, and the Orioles should take the best player at 1/1.

All-Star push for Mancini: You've probably noticed the Orioles are hoping Trey Mancini can get your vote to play in the 2019 All-Star game. He's certainly very deserving with the year he's having.

The 2019 All-Star ballot has introduced a new format this season, which will include two phases of fan voting to determine the All-Star starters. Fans can cast their votes exclusively at MLB.com, Orioles.com, the MLB At Bat and MLB Ballpark apps, and on Google search. "The Primary" is running now until Friday, June 21. That evening, the top three vote-getters at each position (and the top nine outfielders) in each league will be revealed on MLB Network, and they will move on to the second phase of voting. "The Starters Election" will begin on Wednesday, June 26, with fans voting among the finalists at each position during a 28-hour window that concludes on Thursday, June 27. The 90th MLB All-Star Game will be held in Cleveland on July 9.

Draft coverage tonight: MLB Network begins pre-draft coverage tonight at 6 p.m. and the draft begins at 7 p.m. MLB.com also has coverage.

MASN All Access is providing special coverage tonight as well. Don't miss our live draft show at 7 p.m. We're bringing you exclusive interviews with the first overall pick and general manager Mike Elias. Don't miss history! Subscribe: facebook.com/masnOrioles