Duquette on predictions, projections, defending farm system

Speculation is building that the Orioles will reach agreement with free agent catcher Welington Castillo on a multi-year deal. It may not be imminent, but it seems inevitable.

The club's interest in indisputable and well-documented. He's been the primary target since the Diamondbacks non-tendered him. In that regard, nothing has changed since the start of the Winter Meetings.

With the holidays approaching, players tend to want closure for themselves and their families. It doesn't always work out that way, of course, but you could see a flurry of activity now that the Winter Meetings are over and discussions carry over to the next few weeks.

"I think we're going to be able to do some good and help our team," said executive vice president Dan Duquette. "Hopefully, we'll have a catcher, we might have another outfielder and some more pitching depth."

If not this month, maybe before the first exhibition game. It's an ongoing process.

The early reviews on the Winter Meetings aren't kind to the Orioles, but what else is new? Coming away only with selections in the Rule 5 draft won't get you a passing grade.

The online betting site Bovada changed the club's odds of winning the World Series from 22/1 last month to 28/1. FanGraphs already is picking the Orioles to finish in last place with a 76-86 record, the only team in the American League East below .500. The Red Sox are projected to finish first with a 93-69 record, followed by the Yankees at 83-79 and the Rays and Blue Jays at 82-80.

"I see these winners and losers of the Winter Meetings and I see the prediction for the Orioles and people don't really like us in the offseason," Duquette said Thursday night on the "Hot Stove Show" on 105.7 The Fan. "They don't predict us to do well, but we always have a pretty good ballclub and we try to put together our team not just in December, but in January, February, March, and we want to be good at the end of the season. So we try to steadily build our ballclub every step of the way, and we have a pretty good ballclub already returning.

"You've got the whole infield back. It's a very good infield. They're all good everyday ballplayers, and you've got a couple of All-Stars there and some real superstars in (Manny) Machado and (Chris) Davis. We need a catcher, we're looking for outfielders. I'm confident we have a good catcher in the system in Chance Sisco and we're going to get a chance to see him in the spring and he's going to continue to develop. And we've got Caleb Joseph and Francisco Pena there and some other catchers in the minors, so we have pretty good depth at catcher, but we'd like a little bit more experience and I think we'll be able to add that.

"And I like our pitching staff. We've got six starters, they're all returning. It's a more established pitching staff than we've had in the past. We have a terrific bullpen. A lot of clubs are trying to build a bullpen like the Orioles' bullpen this past season that is returning, by the way."

If you think Duquette is passionate about early December rankings, it's nothing compared to his reaction to criticism of the farm system. The lower the grades, the higher the blood pressure readings.

"I know it's deeper based on the trade discussions we had and the way clubs value some of the young players that have come up on our roster," Duquette said. "If you take a look at the number of players that came up from our farm system that contributed to this team last year, there's like 17 players on the team came or played in the farm system before they got here. So that, to me, is a sign that, one, the farm system's healthy, and then, two, we have a competitive team on the field every year, so the organization is healthy.

"These national publications that rank these farm systems and make the preseason predictions, they're not very good, OK? Their record isn't very good. And frankly, I'm sick of hearing about it, OK? Because every year we have a pretty good ballclub here and we put together our team throughout the course of the season and we use players who came up through our farm system like Zach Britton, like Manny Machado, like Jon Schoop that are everyday players. Like Dylan Bundy, like Kevin Gausman and like Mychal Givens and Donnie Hart. They come up and they play here."

Duquette also could have included catchers Matt Wieters and Joseph. Or how Trey Mancini hit three home runs in five games and may be the regular designated hitter next season.

"I don't really understand what this is about, because we have a good farm system," he said. "It's heathy, it's producing players for the major league club and we traded about seven or eight or nine pitchers for players to help us in the pennant race when we've been making the playoffs three of the last five years. Frankly, I don't get it and I'm sick of hearing it because there's no basis for it in the performance of the team and the players on the field.

"You want to look at our farm system? Go out and watch our major league team play, because we've got 17 guys from the farm system who are playing in the big leagues and they're winning more games than they're losing. Our guys are in the big leagues. They're playing and we're winning games."

Duquette said teams are inquiring about pitchers Cody Sedlock and Keegan Akin, the Orioles' first two picks in this year's draft. They'll probably begin next season at low Single-A Delmarva.

"Other clubs are asking for them already and they've only played half a season," Duquette said. "These are too good-looking young pitchers. I'd like to see them get their feet on the ground next year. I don't think they're that far away from helping us because of their major college experience and they pitched in the Cape Cod League.

"They're getting the hang of things. They throw their secondary pitches over the plate, they've got good stuff. Sedlock's a sinkerballer and Akin has three good pitches, including a changeup."