Free agent predictions begin with whopper deals projected for Burnes and Santander

Five days after the end of the World Series, which began last night, teams can sign free agents. It could be an active winter for the Orioles, who have two key free agents of their own hitting the market.

They are right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes and right fielder Anthony Santander. Both are almost certain to get qualifying offers from the Orioles, which would net the team a draft pick if they leave and sign elsewhere.

The consensus opinions seem to be that Burnes is almost certain to leave while the O’s may have at least an outside shot at retaining Santander.

But if that were to come at the price from one prediction this week, I can’t see that happening.

Former big league general manager Jim Bowden predicted who top 45 free agents will be, where they end up and at what price in The Athletic this week (subscription may be required).

Bowden ranks, to no one’s surprise, Juan Soto as the top free agent and projects he will get a deal for 15 years worth $622 million for an average annual value of $41.5 million.

Yeah, wowser if he gets that much. The Yankees, Mets and Blue Jays are listed as the best fits for Soto.

Burnes, per the story, is the top free agent pitcher available and No. 2 on this list of 45 players. Burnes is projected to get seven years and $247 million for an AAV of $35.3 million.

Over 32 O's starts, Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA over 194 1/3 innings. He recorded 22 quality starts and had a 1.096 WHIP while averaging 2.2 walks per nine innings and 8.4 strikeouts per nine.

Burnes struggled in August, but in September he recorded a 1.20 ERA and .512 OPS against. Over his last three regular season starts, he gave up seven hits and one run in 19 innings. He pitched eight scoreless innings in the playoffs.

Burnes this year became the second qualified O's pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA since Mike Mussina posted a 2.54 ERA in 1992, joining Kyle Bradish (at 2.83) in 2023.

The Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Orioles are listed as best team fits for Burnes.

Bowden ranks Santander as the No. 10 free agent and the fourth-highest-rated among position players after Soto, Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman. He projects for Santander a seven-year deal worth $150.5 million for an AAV of $21.5 million.

I don’t see Santander getting seven years or that large a deal, but I surely could see a shorter deal with a better AAV.

Santander, who just turned 30, hit .235/.308/.506/.814 this season with 25 doubles, two triples, 44 homers, 91 runs and 102 RBIs.

He became the eighth Oriole to hit 40 or more home runs in a season, and the first since Mark Trumbo in 2016. He became the first Oriole with 100 or more RBIs since Jonathan Schoop drove in 105 in 2017.

Santander finished second in the American League and third in the majors in homers. He ranked ninth in the AL in RBIs, 11^th in slugging and 13^th in OPS.

Santander might get criticism from some for his low OBP and defensive metrics, but here is something all teams want when handing over the big bucks: durability.

He has played 152, 153 and 155 games the last three seasons. He stays on the field.

Bowden lists the Orioles, Nationals, Reds, Blue Jays, and Mariners are listed as fits.

Soto odds: By the way, those at BetOnline.ag suggest there is about an 82 percent chance that Soto re-signs as a Yankee. But if he does not, they list these odds for his next team. Note that the Orioles are on this list.

Phillies at 5-1
Mets at 6-1
Cubs at 7-1
Blue Jays at 8-1
Red Sox at 9-1
Giant and Mariners at 10-1
Orioles and Dodgers at 12-1
Braves at 14-1
Royals at 18-1

The Angels and White Sox have the longest odds at 75-1.

An epic Game 1: Freddie Freeman hit the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history in the last of the 10th Friday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the New York Yankees 6-3 to open the World Series. A fantastic start to what could be a great series.

Dave McNally, O's pitcher, once hit a World Series slam and now Freeman has one.

"Gibby meet Freddie," said Fox broadcaster Joe Davis in a fantastic play-by-play call. It was a reference to the Dodgers' Kirk Gibson for his WS walk-off homer in 1988. Freeman and Gibson have now hit the only two, two-out, walk-off homers while trailing in WS history.

Some wonderful calls and tweets are here, here and here.