Matt Kremnitzer: O's offense could use Hardy's power

Whether or not the Orioles end up making a major acquisition before the trade deadline, one of the most frustrating parts of this season has been the lack of production from position players who have previously demonstrated the ability to play well. Steve Pearce, Travis Snider, Delmon Young, and Alejandro De Aza are far from stars, but when used correctly, they have been able to contribute. Perhaps the expectations were too high for many of the O's role players.

Despite his timely walk-off home run last night, Matt Wieters has also underwhelmed at the plate. While he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery, Wieters hasn't been able to catch more than once on consecutive days and he's not an everyday presence in the lineup. Still, the O's surely expected more from him, even in limited duty.

But of the players above, only Snider is under contract beyond next season (he has one arbitration-eligible year remaining). J.J. Hardy, however, is in the first year of a three-year, $40 million contract and is having arguably the worst offensive season of his career. His 67 wRC+ would be a career worst, and he's striking out as much as he ever has without getting on base or hitting for much power.

So what's wrong with Hardy? Is he just fighting off some injury woes or is it something more? He turns 33 soon, and he always seems to be dealing with a few nagging ailments. That's not abnormal for someone who finds his name on the lineup card day in and day out. But Hardy battled a shoulder injury when the season started, and he wasn't able to make his 2015 debut until early May. He has been in the lineup regularly since then, and he has still been able to perform well defensively.

According to both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating data, Hardy has been an above-average defender at shortstop. And when factoring in a player's range and ability to make difficult plays, error totals don't necessarily mean a whole lot, though it's still impressive that Hardy's only committed one error and it's almost August. That might mean his range is in decline, which is to be expected over time, but he's not a statue out there, either.

However, Hardy is supposed to be more than just a good glove. The Orioles sometimes use him in the middle of the lineup, and he's supposed to provide more. That just isn't happening.

According to Baseball Heat Maps, Hardy's average fly ball distances have mostly remained steady since 2012:

2011: 289 feet
2012: 280 feet
2013: 283 feet
2014: 278 feet
2015: 280 feet

Unfortunately, Hardy has not only been hitting fewer fly balls:

2011: 43 percent
2012: 40 percent
2013: 38 percent
2014: 38 percent
2015: 31 percent

But he's also pulling the ball much less:

2011: 48 percent
2012: 47 percent
2013: 44 percent
2014: 41 percent
2015: 40 percent

That's obviously important not only because fly balls are, amazingly, hit in the air, but because nearly all of Hardy's home runs are hit to left field. Pulling the ball is hard, so it's not surprising that Hardy's power numbers have dipped without that skill.

Hardy is also not hitting the ball as hard this season. After peaking for a stretch in early June, he's been hitting the ball weaker nearly every week since. Things won't continue on such a downward path, but they are all concerning signs.

Because of his defense at a premium position, Hardy is a good player to have. But if he's not hitting closer to his career average wRC+ of 93, he's a liability at the plate (especially since the average major league shortstop has an average wRC+ of 83 in 2015). Hardy's last contract extension, which ran from 2012-2014, was a considerable bargain for the Orioles. Hardy's offense is a real issue, though, and barring a significant improvement, it doesn't seem like this deal will end up being quite as celebrated.

Matt Kremnitzer blogs about the Orioles at Camden Depot. Follow him on Twitter: @mattkremnitzer. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.