Matthew Taylor: History shows August is a do-or-die month for Birds

They used to speak of August swoons in Baltimore. During the dark decade (and a half) for the local nine, the only thing more oppressive than the late-summer heat was the late-season treatment our beloved Birds received at the hands of opposing big league rosters. August was, after all, the month of 30-3. Things have gotten better in recent years, to say the least. Nevertheless, August baseball still creates anxiety in Charm City.

I've written before that the August swoon, as originally conceived, was largely a myth. July was the month that truly bedeviled the O's throughout the 2000s, though August was not much better. The Orioles were typically bad in July and August, so their play in the calendar's eighth month was not quite the factor it was made out to be. It was akin to wearing an ugly pocket square in order to match an ugly tie. Things simply went from bad to worse.

Now that the Orioles are not bad - in fact, they're the winningest American League team since 2012 - August swoons are an actual concern. In recent playoff years, August has been the month when the O's heat up; in non-playoff years, August has been the month when the O's have faded. So which will it be in 2016?

The 2013 and 2015 seasons followed the patterns of the August swoons of lore in that they were actually a continuation of bad baseball that started in July. The Orioles went 12-14 in August 2013. It was the worst record of any month that season, but the team's struggles truly began in July, when they went 12-13. July and August were the only losing months the O's endured in 2013.

The Orioles went 11-14 in July during the 2015 season and followed it up with a woeful 11-18 mark in August. The team's recent offensive woes feel very much like late August of last season. The O's bats inexplicably went dormant following an inspiring walk-off win versus the Mets on Aug. 19 that left the O's a half-game off the second Wild Card. The team then dropped 12 of their next 13 to end any playoff talk.

Compare the late-summer struggles of 2013 and 2015 to the Orioles' recent playoff seasons. In 2012, the O's 18-9 August record represented their best month of the season until they topped it with a 19-9 September. In 2014, the O's 19-9 August was their top monthly record overall. So in both recent playoff seasons the O's best record for any month was 19-9, and it came late in the season.

There were no 19-win months in 2013 or in 2015. The good news for Orioles fans is that the 2016 team does have a 19-9 month to its credit. It's yet to be seen whether the fact that it came in June qualifies as bad news. That early success has helped them withstand their current lull; however, they cannot afford for this August to become like the Augusts of recent, non-playoff seasons past.

The guess here is that the Orioles do enough to make the postseason thanks in large part to their early success. A 2011 Wall Street Journal article, written one year prior to the introduction of the second Wild Card, spoke to the correlation between a team's winning percentage on June 1 and its final winning percentage. Despite the "marathon, not a sprint" baseball adage, the research in question spoke to the reality that early season games do matter. There's every reason to believe the O's can survive their struggles thanks to the cushion they provided themselves, but I'd still prefer less anxiety than the O's have produced in me so far this month.

Matthew Taylor blogs about the Orioles at Roar from 34. Follow him on Twitter: @RoarFrom34. His ruminations about the Birds appear as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our site. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.