MLB free-agent pitchers are chasing the dollars and getting more than most projections

Baseball America recently wrote about the findings of Major League Baseball’s study on pitching injuries and what it meant for amateur youth pitchers.

The study found – to no real surprise – that youth pitchers are throwing too much, too hard, and too often. This is leading to long-term injuries. Again, no one should be surprised.

They are chasing the dollars of MLB and before that the scholarships from top Div. I schools that lead them to get drafted that lead them to pro ball and possibly one day to the big dollars of the majors.

How big?

Price tags are going up.

Andy MacPhail was sure right. The former Orioles general manager once said free-agent pitching was expensive and fragile. The dollars are big but the injury list can be long. Any long-term signing is taking on risk. With pitchers, the risk can feel bigger.

Those young kids and even those that later do make the pro ranks, are chasing velocity and spin rates. It leads to more outs and more money.

Along the way there are many young pitchers we’ll never hear about or see pitch in the bigs as they chase the dream and the dollars. But come up short and/or get hurt.

But man, those dollars are sure there.

Here is a look at the MLBTradeRumors.com projections before free agency started and what the pitchers actually signed for. Spoiler alert – the nine pitchers I am about to list all got more than projections.

No. 4 ranked free agent Blake Snell was projected to get five years and $160 million. He signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for five years and $182 million with some money deferred.

No. 6 rated Max Fried was projected to get six years and $156 million. The Yankees signed him for eight years and $218 million. I guess New York figured we lost out on Juan Soto, but we are not losing this one.

No. 10 hurler Sean Manaea was projected for three years and $60 and got three years and $75 million to re-sign with the Mets. If you want to root against a team next year just based on payroll, the Mets are clearly that team.

No. 12 ranked Yusei Kikuchi was predicted to get three years and $60 million. The Angels signed him for three years and $63 million.

No. 15 rated Luis Severino, projected for three years and $51 million, got three years and $67 million. From Oakland. Yep.

No. 17 Nathan Eovaldi, predicted for two years and $44 million got three years and $75 million to re-sign with Texas.

No. 21 Clay Holmes, expected to sign for about two years and $30 million, got three years and $38 million from the Mets. Of course, he did as they got another Yankee.

No. 23 Matthew Boyd was projected for two years and $25 million. He signed with the Cubs for two years and $29 million.

No. 27 Frankie Montas, projected for two years and $22 million, got two years and $34 million. Yes from the Mets.

No truth to the rumor that the Mets will no longer field a farm system or take part in the MLB Draft. Just a rumor.

Where does this leave 2024 Oriole Corbin Burnes?

He is still unsigned. The projection from MLBTR was seven years and $200 million. Both could be low now. ESPN actually had Burnes for seven years and $225 million while The Athletic put it at seven years and $245 million.

We are getting very little insight on Burnes. Is he waiting until after Jan. 1 to sign? Are the Orioles still in it? Is he now looking to beat Fried’s deal?

At a time when bullpen usage is vast and starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings, the elite and front-end starter is still valued. Still expensive sometimes even though they are fragile.

The dream of the big outs and big bucks begins early for some.