NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. - Despite losing out to the Red Sox in the Chris Sale sweepstakes, the Nationals are still bargaining from a position of strength as far as minor league starting pitching prospects go here at the Winter Meetings.
One big question after last season: Had the Nationals' top pitching prospect, right-hander Lucas Giolito, lost some of his luster because of some lukewarm starts in the majors?
MLBPipeline.com writer Jim Callis believes that Giolito is still an extremely coveted commodity that would need more than just a handful of starts in the big leagues before the book is closed on his long-term sustainability.
"I think with Lucas, the major league performance was choppy, but at the same time, it wasn't ever like, 'Hey you've got three weeks of starts to get yourself going,' " Callis noted. "I still believe in him. He's up there with any pitching prospect in baseball. If you didn't have the Tommy John history in the past, I don't really know what red flags you would be looking at. I know people quibble he didn't throw a lot of strikes in the big leagues.
"A lot of guys try to be fine when the get to the big leagues. I think especially when you are trying to prove you belong and that you are going to stay. I wouldn't say the Nationals jerked him around, but just don't think you saw the best Lucas Giolito with the way he was brought up and down last year.
"If I was talking trade with Nationals, he'd definitely be one of the guys I would want. He's as good as just about any pitching prospect in baseball."
But Giolito is not the only starting pitching prospect of high value in the Nats system that might be requested.
One name that hasn't been mentioned in the rumor mill is right-hander Austin Voth, who has certainly helped his stock.
Voth won his last three starts in the Arizona Fall League without allowing a run in 15 consecutive innings.
"He's kind of a little different than Lucas. Lucas wows you with the stuff," Callis said. "You can't not love the fastball, curveball. With Austin, I don't know if he truly has a plus pitch that you'd say that's a 60 on the 20-80 scout scale, but he's always missed bats. He usually throws a lot of strikes. With Lucas, you are looking at a frontline starting pitcher, that guy is a potential No. 1 starter. With Austin, he's probably more, if you're conservative, more of a No. 4 guy - maybe he is a No. 3 - he's more of that middle-of-the-rotation guy. But he'd be another target, too."
Callis said Lopez, Voth and others in the Nats system might be offered up if the Nationals believe the price is too high to let Giolito go. And they are legitimate valuable trading pieces.
"If you are talking trade with the Nationals, and let's say they were reluctant to give up Lucas Giolito," Callis said. "OK, I'll come after you, give me Reynaldo Lopez, maybe, or let's talk about Voth. Voth would be down a level, but they have depth to where they could afford to trade some of those guys because they have others, as well."
And then there is right-hander Erick Fedde. The former UNLV pitcher pitched a full season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Fedde finished went 3-2 in his last 10 starts between high Single-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, sporting a 2.10 ERA with 62 strikeouts and 14 walks.
"He's a guy that gets overshadowed, too," Callis said. "This guy would have been probably be borderline top 10 if hadn't of had the Tommy John surgery. Still went in the first round. He's come back pretty quickly from it. I think he gets overshadowed because of Giolito and because of Lopez. This guys is a top 100 prospect. Fastball, slider combination is very good. He throws a lot of strikes. He doesn't necessarily have Giolito or Lopez's ceiling, but I think he's got better strike throwing ability than either one of them.
"He's got really good stuff to go with it, too. If you were trying to place him in the rotation, realistically you'd say No. 3, but he might be No. 2. Again, if I'm talking to the Nationals and maybe they don't want to give me Giolito, OK give me Fedde and Lopez. They have options to trade there on the mound."
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