Notes on defensive metrics, Mark Trumbo and Jason Castro

The defensive metrics don't paint a pretty picture. They scream that the Orioles need to improve their outfield defense. We know they need to improve because some of the metrics rank the Orioles last of all 30 major league teams.

In this ranking from FanGraphs.com of outfield Defensive Runs Saved, the Orioles are at -51 DRS. Orioles outfielders also ranked last in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) at -36.7. Kansas City led all American League outfields in DRS at 45, with Boston at 42 and Houston at 33.

So there is work to do here and executive vice president Dan Duquette agrees.

"When you look at our outfield last year, we didn't improve our defense and we're going to need to do that to compete against the best clubs in the league. So that's something that we need to take a look at: How are we going to improve our overall outfield defense?" Duquette said Friday in this interview with MASNSports.com's Roch Kubatko.

"Our interior defense, our infield, was really solid, but the one area we could improve on as a club is our outfield defense. And of course, if you improve your outfield defense, you're also improving your pitching as long as you keep it in the ballpark."

Explanation of defensive runs saved:

"DRS quantifies a player's entire defensive performance by attempting to measure how many runs a defender saved. It takes into account errors, range, outfield arm and double-play ability. It differs only slightly from UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in its formula, but the concept is the same.

DRS uses Baseball Info Solutions data to chart where each ball is hit. Say, for instance, a center fielder sprints to make a nice catch on a fly ball. Then, say data from BIS tells us that similar fly balls get caught 60 percent of the time. That center fielder gains, essentially, 0.4 bonus points for difficulty. If he can't make the play, he loses 0.6 points. At the end of the day, that player's overall score gets adjusted to the league average -- and then that score gets adjusted for how many runs the once-adjusted score is worth."

When it comes to the DRS stat, the Orioles ranked 10th at catcher, tied for third at first base, tied for 14th at second base, seventh at shortstop and fourth at third base.

jones-fielding-ball-white-sidebar.jpgThe Orioles rated a tie for 24th in center field as the metrics did not rate Adam Jones favorably in addition to what we saw as some shaky defense in the outfield corners.

How much importance should the Orioles put on outfield defense? Should they look to acquire a plus defender for left and/or right field, possibly sacrificing some offense at the position?

Signing Trumbo: So if the Orioles are looking to re-sign Mark Trumbo, it would seem the plan would be for him to get lot of time as the designated hitter and not in the outfield in 2017. Last year, Trumbo got 62 percent of his at-bats in the field, mostly in right field. He got 38 percent as the DH.

Trumbo's struggles in the outfield on defense, along with him getting the qualifying offer tag, could work against him in terms of free agent negotiations this winter. Could that reduce his price, further leading him back to Baltimore?

We didn't get to see much of it here, but Trumbo's defense at first base is ahead of his outfield play and a team looking for a first baseman could have him on its radar.

But at a time when teams value defense more than ever and adding in the qualifying offer impact, Trumbo could have a much better chance to remain an Oriole than we may have thought when the 2016 season ended. And for what it's worth, he said many times this year how much he would like to remain an Oriole. Now we wait to see what kind of offers he gets if he turns down the qualifying offer as expected.

Castro gets offers: Yahoo Sports reported Friday that free agent catcher Jason Castro has offers from three American League teams. If the Orioles lose Matt Wieters, they may be in the market for a catcher. The teams that are said to have made offers were not identified.

A lefty-hitter with solid pitch-framing skills, would the Orioles consider a Castro-Caleb Joseph platoon while at the same time providing Chance Sisco more time to develop on the farm?

Castro, who turns 30 next June, hit .210/.307/.377 last year for Houston. He hit better against right-handed pitchers, batting .231/.331/.426 with an OPS of .757, while he hit just .149 againt southpaws. One issue here is that Joseph, who failed to drive in a run last year, hit just .083 (3-for-36) in 2016 versus lefty pitchers. But the year before, Joseph batted .250/.296/.417 against left-handed pitchers.

MLBTradeRumors.com ranks Castro No. 29 on its list of the top 50 available free agents. The projection is that he will get a two-year deal for $15 million from the Chicago White Sox.

If the Orioles are without Wieters next season, which direction should they go in at the catcher position?




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