O's fans take to Twitter to analyze every aspect of Yovani Gallardo's pitching

Sometimes we just overanalyze baseball players. That might be what it truly comes down to.

When I wrote an article yesterday with the headline of "As Yovani Gallardo's strikeout rate decreased, so did his ERA," that was a headline but also an indisputable fact.

But some fans were coming at me fast and furiously yesterday on Twitter. A good ERA is fine with some, but not with all. What about his FIP, his strikeout rate, his velocity, his second half?

Heck, I was surprised his choice for lunch was not scrutinized. Or his choice of car or pitch selection or glove.

If you are a fan that loves FIP (fielding independent pitching) and swears by it as a predictor of future performance, I greatly respect that. I just don't agree with it, and that doesn't make me a bad guy or someone that doesn't know a thing about baseball.

Here is Chris Tillman's ERA and FIP the last four years:

*2012: 2.93 ERA, 4.25 FIP
*2013: 3.71 ERA, 4.42 FIP
*2014: 3.34 ERA, 4.01 FIP
*2015: 4.99 ERA, 4.45 FIP

The term that is used by some is that he "outperformed" his peripheral stats for three seasons. Some even invoke the word that he got "lucky." Since that covers 80 starts (2012-14), Tillman must be among the luckiest players around.

If you want to get fans to debate you 24/7 and come up with every argument ever to come your way, go to Twitter. I respect my readers and followers there, even if I don't agree with every opinion they send my way. I do respond to almost all of them.

Here are some tweets I got yesterday about Gallardo:

* There is no connection between ERA and future performance.

* FIP, K & BB related stats, & BABIP all better indicators of future performance. I guarantee he won't pitch to a 3.4 ERA next yr.

* He was getting bombed in the 2nd half, all his peripherals are bad and doesn't even eat innings. No thanks.

* Do you agree pitchers don't usually age well? He's thrown a ton of innings by age 29. 3 year deal has major risk.

* I'm a fan, I want the team to be successful. There's just nothing here. Can you point to anything other than ERA?

Exhausting I know. I respect every fan and I listen to seemingly thousands of opinions over the course of just a few days. But good grief, are we overanalyzing here? Is there nothing to like about Gallardo other than ERA? Really?

OK, but first of all, why discount ERA? It uses, you know, actual results. Would you rather have a pitcher with a great strikeout rate but a 4.50 ERA? Not me. It seems some fans I encountered on Twitter yesterday would however. Gotta have those impressive peripheral stats.

Well, what about Gallardo's groundball rate, his left-on-base percentage, his career win percentage, his first half ERA of 2.62 last year, his averaging 194 innings pitched the past five years? He's not all bad.

Here are some ERAs since 2012:

3.69 - Gallardo
3.72 - Wei-Yin Chen
3.82 - Miguel Gonzalez
3.83 - Chris Tillman

I guess for those that discount ERA, this will mean little. But it does encompass 761 innings Gallardo pitched since 2012. That is 54 more innings than Chen in that time, 88 more than Tillman and 181 more than Gonzalez.

None of this is to say he is an ace pitcher or the answer to every Oriole pitching problem. But he is a solid starting pitcher who ranked 11th among all American League starters in ERA in 2015. He is a pitcher who will give the Orioles a better chance at a decent rotation next year. He will do so in a division that looks to be wide open for the taking and one where the eventual winner may struggle to win 90 games.

It is OK by me that some fans emphasize FIP over ERA or strikeout rate or any other number over other stats. Or use terms like "overperform" and "luck." But sometimes we can't see the forest from the trees, or something like that.

When it comes to the potential acquisition of Gallardo, the passion of fans is impressive. But we also may have reached the territory of paralysis by analysis.

Baseball America shuts out Orioles: Baseball America has ranked a list of the sport's top 100 prospects every year since 1990. When its latest list was released last night, the Orioles were shut out. Not one O's prospect on the list. It was just the second time ever that has happened. The first time was in 2003.

Dylan Bundy has been in the Baseball America top 100 four times previously - he was No. 10 before the 2012 season, No. 2 before 2013 and then No. 15 and No. 48 the past two years. Hunter Harvey was the other Oriole ranked on this list last year when he was No. 68.