O's game blog: Orioles and Padres play the rubber match game tonight

After a 4-1 win Monday night and a 10-3 loss on Tuesday, the Orioles wrap up their series at San Diego tonight. The winner this evening will take this series.

The Orioles (74-46) ended play Tuesday three games ahead of Tampa Bay for the American League East lead.

The O's are 10-6 in rubber-match games. Should they win this game, they will improve to 24-12-3 in series play in 2023, and to 13-5-2 in road series. 

The Orioles, even after the loss yesterday, have won four of six, eight of 12, 11 of 16, 15 of 23 and 25 of their past 36 games. They are 38-23 on the road, 9-5 in August and 20-11 in the second half.

Heading into Tuesday's game, the Baltimore rotation had allowed three earned runs or fewer 16 times in the previous 17 games. The rotation ERA was 3.56 in that span. And if you took away Kyle Gibson allowing nine runs last Friday, the rotation ERA was 2.88 in the 16 games with three earned runs or fewer.

But right-hander Jack Flaherty struggled early on last night and allowed five runs in the last of the first. Gary Sánchez hit a grand slam after Flaherty walked three straight hitters. The O's were down 7-0 after the second inning and by 10-0 after the fifth.

"His command just wasn't there from the start a little bit," O's manager Brandon Hyde said. "Tough time landing his breaking ball. Seemed like a lot of breaking balls were down and out of the zone, and everything was to the extension side. They got enough of the bat on the ball. A lot of the damage with two outs. A tough time commanding his pitches."

The O's scored on Cedric Mullins' RBI single in the sixth, and they added two in the ninth on Austin Hays' 11th home run and Gunnar Henderson's RBI single to center. 

The Orioles actually out-hit San Diego 11-10 as Ryan O'Hearn, Mullins and Hays had two hits each. 

Left-hander Blake Snell (9-8, 2.63 ERA) gets the start for San Diego tonight and will provide a real challenge for Orioles batters. Despite a strong ERA, San Diego is just 11-13 in his starts. He got off to a slow start, had an ERA of 5.40 through nine games and the Padres were 1-8 in those nine.

But once Snell got it locked in, he was really locked in.

Over his past 15 starts he has allowed no more than one run on 12 occasions, and allowed zero runs seven times. In those games, Snell is 8-2 with a 1.16 ERA over 85 innings, allowing just 11 earned runs. He has walked a lot of batters this year, and in those innings he has 49 walks (5.19 per nine) and 123 strikeouts (13.02 per nine). In that span, opponents have batted .165 versus Snell with a .515 OPS.

For the year, over 130 innings he has allowed 91 hits and 1.285 WHIP, giving up 6.3 hits per nine with a 5.3 walk rate and 11.8 strikeout rate. His walk rate would be a career high.

Snell won the 2018 American League Cy Young Award, going 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA for Tampa Bay over 31 starts.

Against lefty batters he allows a .215 average and .695 OPS. Against right-handers those numbers are .192/.615.

In seven career starts against the Orioles, he is 2-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.047 WHIP.

Right-hander Dean Kremer (11-4, 4.50 ERA) will make his 10^th interleague start and 25^th overall start this year. The Orioles are 18-6 in his 2023 outings, winning the last seven in a row.

Kremer, who allowed two runs in seven innings last time out against Houston, has given up two earned runs or fewer five times in his past seven games. In that span, he is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA with 17 walks and 38 strikeouts over 41 innings. In those seven starts, opponents have hit .189 with a .620 OPS against Kremer.

He has been solid in interleague play this year, going 5-1 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.084 WHIP. Kremer has interleague wins versus Washington, Atlanta, San Francisco, the Chicago Cubs and Miami. In 12 career interleague games, he is 7-2 with a 3.74 ERA and .687 OPS.