There are an alarming number of pitching injuries and Tommy John surgeries in pro baseball. As he gets set tonight to oversee his fourth draft as Orioles scouting director, Gary Rajsich, along with his staff, must factor injury risk into the equation when ranking and/or selecting any pitcher.
Scouting directors and scouts always have to do that, but maybe more now than ever. There is a school of thought that some injuries we see after a player has been in pro ball for a year or two may have had their roots on the amateur level.
I asked Rajsich about the injury factor for pitchers he is considering drafting.
"It is alarming the number of Tommy John surgeries that are going on in professional baseball these days," he said. "It has become an issue with us, and we are paying a lot of attention to pitching history. Whether there has been abuse. Number of innings pitched, when they pitched and have they had enough time off. It is a renewed focus for us this year. Most kids get hurt when they are tired or overused."
But can scouts get all the information they need to get when a pitcher has an injury history?
"I think for the most part kids have been pretty honest with us as far as their usage," Rajsich said. "Plus our scouts, if they have a history of two or three years with them, they've seen them and know the background. They know which tournaments and showcases they've pitched in. It is something you can find out and is not something kids try and hide."
So how does that impact how the Orioles rank pitchers on their draft board? Do they drop them down a bit if there is an injury history?
"It just goes into the risk factors that we weigh. There are certain risk factors and medical history we pay attention to. All of that goes into the big overall picture. I think we rank them according to their natural talent and ability, and we weigh the risk factors after that," Rajsich said.
As the draft starts tonight, the Orioles will have three selections, making picks at No. 25 and No. 36, along with No. 68 in the second round.
Among players drafted No. 25 overall that had noteworthy big league careers are infielder Chuck Knoblauch, pitchers Matt Garza and Matt Cain, and one young man named Mike Trout. Yep, he was not selected until the 25th pick of 2009. Can that happen again? The odds are probably astronomical.
Click here to see the listing of players drafted No. 25 over the years courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
Five players from the Maryland Terrapins team that reached the NCAA's Super Regionals are ranked among Baseball America's top 500 prospects. They are left-handed pitcher Alex Robinson (No. 74), second baseman Brandon Lowe (No. 98), outfielder LaMonte Wade (No. 264), left-handed pitcher Zach Morris (No. 338) and right-handed pitcher Kevin Mooney (No. 445).
Right-handed pitcher Cody Morris out of Resevoir High School in Fulton, Md. is ranked No. 266.
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