Orioles have lost draft picks before, but should they do it again?

Here is a question worth pondering: If the Orioles lose Mark Trumbo, thereby adding a draft pick, are they then more likely to give up a pick for signing a player that turned down a qualifying offer?

In other words, will they give up a pick but have one on hand already to replace it.

Trumbo, as expected, turned down the qualifying offer from the Orioles on Monday. If Trumbo signs with another team, the Orioles get a pick after the first round but before the second next June. Right now, that pick is No. 32. The Orioles also currently hold the No. 23 pick in the first round.

These numbers could change. While the first 10 picks of the draft are protected and cannot be lost by the teams that hold them, picks Nos. 11-22 ahead of the Orioles would be lost if any team holding one of those selections signs a free agent that turned down a qualifying offer.

Those picks are held by these teams:

11. Rockies
12. White Sox
13. Pirates
14. Marlins
15. Royals
16. Astros
17. Yankees
18. Mariners
19. Cardinals
20. Tigers
21. Giants
22. Mets

A team signing a player that turned down a qualifying offer loses a pick and that pick just goes away, thereby reducing the first round. The O's hold the No. 23 pick, but move up if any team holding picks from Nos. 11-22 sign a player, costing them a pick.

The eight free agents that turned down qualifying offers are Trumbo, Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler. If you sign one of these eight, you lose a draft pick. If they are signed by a team with a protected top 10 pick, the signing team then loses its next-highest pick.

Of that group of eight are two that are potential fits for the Orioles in Desmond and Fowler. Let's say Trumbo leaves and the O's use some of the money intended for him to pursue Desmond and/or Fowler. By signing one of them, they'd lose the No. 23 pick, but still have No. 32, which could move up. Does holding the 32nd pick make the Orioles more likely to give up No. 23?

Fans in favor of hanging onto picks (which seems to be a large majority) want to see the Orioles gain, not lose, draft picks. They feel a farm system that has been ranked near the bottom of the major leagues in organizational rankings should be adding to that and not subtracting.

In February 2014, the Orioles signed two players that cost them draft picks. They lost the No. 17 pick for adding Ubaldo Jimenez and No. 55 for signing Nelson Cruz. Last winter, they lost the No. 14 pick for signing Yovani Gallardo and were prepared to lose pick No. 28 for Fowler had he agreed to terms.

That pick for Trumbo (if the Orioles don't re-sign him) could produce a good player. When Cruz left the Orioles after one season, Baltimore got the No. 36 pick in the 2015 draft. That turned out to be Ryan Mountcastle, now ranked as the club's No. 3 prospect according to Baseball America.

Of course, when you lose a draft pick, you also lose the money slotted for that spot in the draft pool. Last year, the No. 23 pick was slotted for $2.22 million. The Orioles would part with just under $2.1 million a few picks later when they selected pitcher Cody Sedlock 27th overall.

So there are a few numbers and dollars involved here. It can get a little complicated. The Orioles have lost draft picks three times to sign players in recent years. Should they do it for a fourth time