Picking a dark horse in Sarasota

I could attempt to cheat and wait until I get to spring training, watch a few workouts and talk to the manager before choosing my dark horse for 2011. Or I could do the honorable thing and make my decision today, without benefit of bullpen sessions and batting practice, without the opinions of the people who will construct the 25-man roster, without first having my palm read. As if it matters. I selected pitcher Brad Hennessey before arriving in Fort Lauderdale, blinked and missed his entire Orioles career. I chose Kam Mickolio last spring after manager Dave Trembley sat in his office and heaped enough praise on the reliever to cover the entire Mickolio family. I can be wrong using a variety of strategies. I'm posting the camp roster again, and I'm tagging pitcher Justin Duchscherer and designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero at the bottom. Duchscherer hadn't passed his physical when I ran the list last week. Guerrero still hasn't taken his physical, but I'm assuming that it goes off without a hitch. 1 Roberts, Brian INF 2 Hardy, J.J. INF 3 Izturis, Cesar INF 6 Green, Nick INF 9 Fox, Jake CA 10 Jones, Adam OF 11 Andino, Robert INF 12 Reynolds, Mark INF 14 Reimold, Nolan OF 15 Tatum, Craig CA 17 Matusz, Brian LHP 18 Pie, Felix OF 19 Uehara, Koji RHP 21 Markakis, Nick OF 24 Tillman, Chris RHP 25 Lee, Derrek INF 28 Harris, Brendan INF 29 Snyder, Brandon INF 30 Scott, Luke OF 32 Wieters, Matt CA 34 Arrieta, Jake RHP 35 Bergesen, Brad RHP 37 Bell, Josh INF 38 Angle, Matt OF 40 Patton, Troy LHP 43 Johnson, Jim RHP 45 Drese, Ryan RHP 46 Guthrie, Jeremy RHP 47 Viola, Pedro LHP 49 Berken, Jason RHP 50 Accardo, Jeremy RHP 51 Gonzalez, Michael LHP 53 Britton, Zach LHP 54 VandenHurk, Rick RHP 55 Simon, Alfredo RHP 57 Rapada, Clay LHP 58 Mahoney, Joe INF 59 Rupe, Josh RHP 60 Erbe, Brandon RHP 61 Gabino, Armando RHP 62 Spoone, Chorye RHP 63 Gregg, Kevin RHP 64 Lebron, Luis RHP 65 Rivero, Raul RHP 66 Pelzer, Wynn RHP 68 Rosario, Adrian RHP 69 Florimon, Pedro INF 70 Atkins, Mitch RHP 71 Hernandez, Michel CA 72 Adams, Ryan INF 74 Henson, Tyler OF 79 Donachie, Adam CA Hendrickson, Mark LHP Winn, Randy OF Riske, David RHP Duchscherer, Justin RHP Guerrero, Vladimir DH Many of you already made your predictions. I've seen Andino's name come up. The Sun's Jeff Zrebiec suggests that we keep an eye on non-roster pitcher Drese, a 14-game winner with the Rangers in 2004 under manager Buck Showalter. A few injuries and a shocking demotion or two might have to occur for Drese to make the rotation, but I like how Zrebiec stepped up to the challenge. And he didn't wait until after his flight landed and his bags were unpacked. Not only do I still need to pack my bags, I've still got to do laundry. I'm making my selection right now, and I'm going with Riske. Yes, it's a Riske pick. I get it. Riske was once good enough to receive a three-year contract from the Brewers, who released him in August. He's posted a 3.67 ERA in 462 major league games. And I can't come up with anyone else. At first glance, the bullpen appears to be set with Gregg, Uehara, Johnson, Gonzalez, Accardo, Berken and Hendrickson (or another lefty such as Rapada or Viola). But there could be an injury, or Riske could beat out Accardo. The Orioles signed Riske late, most likely making him their final roster addition before pitchers and catchers report on Sunday. They also were interested in reliever Elmer Dressens, according to Fernando Ballesteros at Puro Beísbol, before reaching agreement with Riske. My guess is they'll be very happy with their choice.