Pondering a contract extension for pitcher Chris Tillman

Heading into the 2016 season, there was some concern about right-hander Chris Tillman, a pitcher who has been the club's opening day starter the last three years and who was a 2013 American League All-Star.

In the three seasons from 2012-2014, Tillman went a combined 38-16 with an ERA of 3.42. In those years, he ranked tied for 11th in the AL in wins and was 15th in ERA. From 2012-14, the Orioles went 55-27 (.671) in Tillman's 82 starts.

But the concern about Tillman heading into last year was a result of his pitching during the 2015 season. Tillman went 11-11 with a 4.99 ERA. It was very different from what he had done in those three previous seasons.

Tillman then had a 4.71 ERA at home and went 4-8 with a 6.83 ERA in 16 starts against AL East opponents. That included an 0-4 record and 11.72 ERA in six starts against Toronto.

In 2014, when the Orioles won 96 games and the AL East championship, Tillman went 13-6 with a 3.34 ERA and pitched 207 1/3 innings. He went 6-1 with a 2.33 ERA after the All-Star break and had a 20-start stretch where he allowed three earned runs or less in each outing.

Some felt Tillman regressed to the mean in 2015 and that he would also struggle in 2016. But Tillman didn't regress, and as it turned out, the outlier was his 2015 season.

He pitched well from 2012-2014 and again last year when he was 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA. Over 172 innings, he allowed 155 hits with 66 walks, 140 strikeouts and a .244 batting average against.

Tillman completely reversed his results against AL East opponents from the year before. Last season, in 14 starts against division rivals, Tillman went 7-1 with a 3.49 ERA and the Orioles were 12-2 in those starts. Yeah, pretty darn good.

After the Orioles went 15-16 in Tillman's starts in 2015, last season they went 22-8. A team that had a winning percentage of .549 for the 2016 season had a win percentage of .733 when Tillman was on the mound.

All this leads us to this question: Should the Orioles sign Tillman to a contract extension? The answer seems easy. Yes, they should, pending the dollar amount, as always. Of all the stats we could evaluate, the Orioles' win percentage of .671 in Tillman's starts from 2012-14 and .733 last year should be among the most considered. He leads them to wins, plenty of them. His starts outperform the team's results when he doesn't start.

Tillman is entering his last year of arbitration eligibility and can be a free agent at the end of the 2017 season. He earned $6.225 million in 2016 and the projection for this year is $10.6 million.

At that amount, per today's salaries, Tillman still comes in as a solid value. With one shaky season and four solid ones over the last five years, it is pretty clear that the Orioles should be pursuing Tillman on a long-term deal, and they seem to be doing just that. They've had at least preliminary talks about a new deal.

Would a four-year deal worth $60-65 million get it done?