Potential O's free-agent target: Lefty Blake Snell

If the Orioles do not re-sign right-hander Corbin Burnes and are not in the final hunt for lefty Max Fried and find that Roki Sasaki gets posted but signs with another team, there is still another stud pitcher out there to potentially sign.

He is a two-time Cy Young Award winner with huge strikeout numbers and was the best pitcher in the majors last season starting July 9. Did we mention he does not have a qualifying offer attached to him and no draft picks would be lost for signing him?

He is lefty Blake Snell, who in, what could be his one year with San Francisco, went 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA over 20 starts and 104 innings.

A Scott Boras client, Snell had designs on a $200 million dollar or more deal last winter via free agency. But he did not get that and signed very late, during training, with the Giants for a two-year deal and $62 million. It included an opt out after this past season and he has taken that.

Snell got off to a terrible start after signing late. He had a 9.51 ERA after his first six starts and made injured list stints with a left adductor strain and left groin strain. 

And then, starting July 9, he got locked in and was spectacular.

In his last 14 starts, he went 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA. In seven of those starts he allowed no runs, in 13 of 14 he gave up two or less and he allowed three runs in the other one. Over 80 1/3 he allowed just 33 hits and only two homers with a .123 batting average against and .382 OPS allowed. Hard to do better than that.

On Aug. 2 at Cincinnati, he threw a 114-pitch no-hitter with 11 strikeouts – the first for the Giants since right-hander Chris Heston on June 9, 2015.

The potential questions here are that he will 32 Dec. 4 and his command is not great. He averaged 3.8 walks (with 12.5 strikeouts) last season and has averaged 4.1 for his career.

He has topped 30 starts just twice in his career – but each time he won a Cy Young Award - with Tampa Bay in 2018 and San Diego in 2023.

The age and walks totals could bring down Snell’s price a bit. MLBTradeRumors.com ranks him the No. 4 free agent and projects a five-year deal for $160 million. FanGraphs.com lists him at No. 6 free agent, predicting a three-year deal for $105 million. ESPN ranks him No. 8 and projects four years and $124 million.

The guy puts up big strikeout numbers, averaging 12.0 strikeouts per nine in 2022, 11.7 in 2023 and 12.5 this past season.

Here are the MLB leaders, K per 9 since 2018:

11.79 – Blake Snell

11.65 – Gerrit Cole

11.54 – Max Scherzer

11.44 – Robbie Ray

Here is now he gets such big strikeout numbers. It starts with a fastball he throws 46 percent of the time at 95.9 mph. Then he produces a 47.8 whiff rate on his curveball, 47.6 on his changeup and 44.6 with his slider. Several plus weapons.

The average exit velocity against him ranks in the top eight percent of the majors and he is top one percent in hard-hit percentage allowed. So he fans a lot of batters and gives up weak contact when they do put the ball in play.

Since the 2022 season, Burnes has an ERA of 3.08 and Snell is at 2.82. Now Burnes has thrown many more innings and is younger and that is why he projects to get a longer-term deal.

I don’t see Snell lasting until a March signing this winter. And if teams can get this guy on a three or four-year deal, the interest level should be quite high. Put him alongside Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez and the O’s could have as formidable a front three as any club.