Potential O's free agent target: Teoscar Hernandez

It is the time of year where free agency in baseball takes center stage in the sport. Free agents can now sign with any club and it may not be long before some players do sign with new clubs.

It can be an exciting time of the year for fans – they track which players will the O's pursue, which players can they actually add and which players will they actually add?

Over the next few weeks and months, we’ll present information on this blog about some free agents. Not because we feel the team should sign them or will, but because they make sense as an O’s target. None of this means they will end up here as all 30 teams have a shot at these players.

Right now, money talks and other things, I hear, walk.

If the Orioles do lose free agent Anthony Santander to another club, they could replace him with another free agent corner outfielder in righty-hitter Teoscar Hernández.

Mike Elias this week told MLB Network: "We need some help in the outfield, particularly a lot of our at-bats from the right-side of the plate are what we are prioritizing in the outfield."

An MLB Network report yesterday said the Orioles and Boston are already showing interest in Hernandez. His 2024 club, the Los Angeles Dodgers, would like to re-sign him per reports. 

The two outfielders are similar and are ranked as similar players by several outlets. Projections indicate Santander could get more money and mostly that seems based on the fact he is 30 and Hernández is 32.

Coming off a 2023 season with Seattle where he posted a .741 OPS – the second-lowest of his career – Hernández sought a three-year deal last year in free agency. He never got offered more than two years and wound up signing with the Dodgers for a one-year contract at $23.5 million.

Then he posted very solid numbers for the Dodgers and hit third or fourth in every World Series game. In July he made the All-Star team and also won the All-Star Home Run Derby competition.

In 154 regular-season games for Los Angeles, Hernández hit .272/.339/.501/.840 with 32 doubles, two triples, a career-high 33 homers and 99 RBIs.

In the National League stats, he ranked fifth in slugging and total bases, tied for sixth in homers, seventh in RBIs, tied for eighth in extra-base hits and 10^th in OPS.

Per Statcast, Hernández ranked in the six percent of the majors in barrel percentage and top nine percent in expected slugging. His OPS was .808 versus right-handed pitching and .931 versus lefties. For his career his OPS is .778 versus right and .894 against lefties. 

Hernández did receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and almost certainly will reject it. If the Orioles sign a player that was made a QO and rejects it, they would forfeit their third-highest draft pick as a revenue-sharing team.

Hernández had had a very solid career, and in the Dodgers’ star-studded lineup, some described him as an overlooked, yet crucial player.

Since 2020 and over the past five seasons, his batting line is .274/.328/.493/.821 producing an OPS+ of 127.  By comparison Santander’s OPS+ for 2024 was 134. Santander's OPS+ since 2020 is 120.

Hernández does strikeout too much with a 28.8 K percentage last year while league average was 22.4. His walk percentage was 8.1. The last four years his RBI totals are 116, 77, 93 and 99. His career OPS is .808 which produces a 124 OPS+. He is a two-time Silver Slugger award winner.

On defense he is average-ish, maybe a tick below. In 2024, his Defensive Runs Saved was -8 in left field but +5 in right field. While some fielding metrics are not a fan, his arm strength was tracked as top 30 percent of the majors by Statcast. He threw out the Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton at the plate in Game 3 of the World Series in a big play of the WS.

I have seen outlets rank Santander as anywhere from the No. 8 to No. 12 available free agent. I see a few rankings of Hernández from No. 11 to No. 13. MLBTradeRumors.com projects Hernández getting $60 million over three years. ESPN has it three years at $66 million and FanGraphs.com projects three years and $72 million.

Maybe he would not hit 33 homers playing half of his games in Baltimore, but he would provide some right-handed hitting balance to a roster that already includes lefty outfield bats in Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins and Heston Kjerstad.