Sizing up the O's at No. 5 with Baseball America's JJ Cooper

Baseball America recently did a mock draft with their staff picking for the teams. High school shortstop Jordan Lawler went first to Pittsburgh, followed by Vanderbilt pitcher Jack Leiter to Texas, high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer to Detroit and high school shortstop Kahlil Watson to Boston.

That left the Orioles, selecting No. 5 overall, with Vandy pitcher Kumar Rocker still out there in this exercise, along with highly rated high school shortstop Brady House, high school pitcher Jackson Jobe and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. There would be other candidates, of course, but many consider this group of eight to be the top eight for the draft.

Selecting representing the Orioles, writer/reporter Ben Badler picked Davis, the Louisville catcher who hit .370/.482/.663 with 15 homers and 48 RBIs in 50 games during the college season. Badler said his rationale was that he took the best player available and that he would let where Davis would eventually land on defense - not necessarily at catcher - sort itself out later..

Yesterday, during a Zoom interview with Baseball America executive editor JJ Cooper, I asked what he would do given the same available players at No. 5. Here is a portion of our interview, ahead of the first round on Sunday night, presenting my questions and his answers. Not every quote is included here, but you can watch the entire Zoom interview at the end of this entry.

If at No. 5 the Orioles do have those players available to include Rocker, Davis, Jobe and House, which direction should they go?

Cooper: "Should or will? Because they could be very different. Should? I would say about should, if you really like Henry Davis, you take Henry Davis. You don't worry about the fact that you already have (a catcher in) Adley Rutschman. I'm not saying take Davis, but you don't worry about doubling up on a position. That is not something you do in the MLB draft. If you ended up getting two All-Stars at the top of the draft that play the same position, you can always figure that out down the road.

"If Kahlil Watson, Marcelo Mayer or Jordan Lawler was available, I would love to take one of those if I'm the Orioles. Add another high-ceiling, high-impact high school shortstop to a rapidly improving farm system. I like that pick.

"Will (they do that)? Everyone I talk to and everyone that we're talking to seems to think you are going to see something much more like what the Orioles did last year. I can confidently say most teams didn't have (Arkansas outfielder) Heston Kjerstad No. 2 on their boards last year.

"That said, why did they take him at two? He got a lower bonus than the guy that went, seven, six, five, four and three. They took Kjerstad at two to save money to use later in the draft. It's not about the Orioles being cheap, that's not how it works with this draft. It's not about saving money to put in your pocket, it's about redistributing money later on in the draft. They spent that money later, and I like some of the guys they got. Everyone seems to think there is a good chance the Orioles will do that again this year.

"I can probably even make a better argument for them doing it this year, because this is a year with less consensus at the top. They obviously draft later than last year, but on top of that, there is less consensus. If you said they took a Sal Frelick or a Ty Madden or someone from that second tier - and we are talking about guys ranked at the back of the top 10, not the back of the top 20 - if they did that and signed that player well under the slot, picking again with money later could mean you pick some additional premium talent later in the draft."

Is that a good strategy if you have a bunch of players you have ranked closely together on your board? Then take the one that can allow you most to do more later?

Cooper: "Teams boards vary dramatically. So, if you're taking someone that you view as, let's say, the fourth- or fifth-best player in the class even if the consensus, you believe, views him 11th, 12th or 13th in the class, absolutely I see the logic for doing that. At the same time, if you said, 'We really think this is the 10th-best player, but he'll come at a lower price,' I'm not as enamored with doing that. The draft is hard enough."

Are you convinced that Leiter will go first among the two Vandy pitchers?

Cooper: "I do think Leiter will go first of the two. Kumar Rocker came into 2021 with a much longer track record of success. But, that said, it's one where you look at the 2021 season and weigh that most heavily. Right now Jack Leiter has a better fastball. It plays better up in the zone, which is what teams seem to like right now and gets more swings and misses. It also had more consistent velocity.

"The thing that is interesting about Rocker's season - he had a very good season - but his velocity was up and down. There were outings where it was premium, top-of-the-draft stuff and other outings where it was lower, as far as what he was sitting with any potential first-round arm. Teams are going to have to figure out, what do they think about that? The slider, the breaking ball was always really good, he was generally quite effective. But when you are trying to separate the guys at the top of the draft you probably feel better about the guy that was more consistently showing you that plus-plus stuff rather than the guy that showed it some games and some games was really more battling, succeeding and surviving with more of average to a little bit above-average stuff."

Does that mean, then, that Rocker could possibly be considered a reach at five?

Cooper: "I wouldn't say he's a reach. At the same time, it wouldn't shock anyone if he is still on the board at six or seven. We keep mocking him to the Royals at seven - not that it's definitely going to happen that way, but it wouldn't surprise anybody if he was still on the board there."

If the Orioles do take Henry Davis and he has to move off catcher, will that downgrade his defense where it greatly impacts his overall value?

"No. Actually, the funny thing is if you talk about his assets, his biggest question mark is his defensive ability and receiving behind the plate. It doesn't mean he can't stay at catcher, but he is a hitter first at this point. There is hit and power more so than defense. This isn't Adley Rutschman, where you thought you were talking about that hitting with Gold Glove defense.

"Davis has probably the best arm of any catcher in the class. You could put him in right field and he'd have a cannon out there. You would be fine there. The bat should be able to do that. But if say robo umps happen (in the future), the biggest weaknesses in his game right now, like pitch presentation and framing, could disappear from the game. If that happened, then he is almost an ideal catcher. He's fine at blocking, and if you are talking about shutting down running games, it's a seven arm, maybe an eight. As good an arm as any catching arm in this class.

"If the Orioles take him, I think what you do, you would still send him out as a catcher. He would probably start out multiple levels below Adley Rutschman and you develop him there for a couple years. You can always figure that out. You let him start at a position he is most comfortable at, and if you have to you can eventually move him and the bat at that point should allow him to have multiple options. He's not a bad athlete, either. And we have a story up at Baseball America about just how driven he is. He used to have a below-average arm at the start of his high school career. He wanted to fix that. So, he long-tossed, long-tossed, long-tossed and here he is with one of the best arms in the class."

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