Some draft talk, minor league scores and Home Run Derby field

The draft analysts that post mock drafts and try to figure out which players might get selected in which spots on Sunday night have one tough job. Those analysts sometimes look to past behavior to try and predict future actions.

When it comes to the Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias, they look at the past and sometimes speculate what it could mean to his 2020 O's draft.

These predictions sometimes indicate and mostly speculate that he may be reluctant to take a pitcher with a high draft pick. That he prefers college bats. That he prefers players from top conferences like the Southeastern Conference. That he may select a player with the No. 5 pick, sign him to an underslot bonus and use that money later in the draft.

We just have no idea on Elias' strategy for this draft and he is not likely to tip his hand very much publicly.

One common misconception from last year is that the Orioles "went cheap" with their selection of Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad to save money. They insisted after the draft that they liked Kjerstad very much and that the ability to save dollars for later was just a nice bonus.

The money was indeed spent, not pocketed by the club. Kjerstad signed for a bonus of $5.2 million, well under slot for the No. 2 pick, which was nearly $7.8 million. But some of that savings went to high school infielder Coby Mayo in round four. He got a bonus of $1.75 million, which was about $1.2 million over slot. And the Orioles signed their fifth-round pick, pitcher Carter Baumler, for $1.5 million, which was about $1.1 million over. They also signed their third-round pick, shortstop Anthony Servideo, for $950,000 which was $106,000 over slot.

Signing that top pick under slot can be a sound strategy if the player you are going to get is one you already have ranked highly and is high up on your draft board. Scouting directors over the years have insisted that most teams have two things in mind for those high draft picks - don't draft for need and take the best player available when it's your turn.

The O's pick fifth on Sunday night in round one following Pittsburgh, Texas, Detroit and Boston. The slot amount for the No. 5 pick is $6,180,700. The O's will also pick at Nos. 41, 65, 76 and 106 through the first four rounds. The draft will consist of 20 rounds over three days through Tuesday.

The Orioles' overall pool amount is $11,829,300 which is the fifth-highest amount of any team heading into the draft. This is the third time the Orioles have had the No. 5 pick. They drafted catcher Matt Wieters in 2007 and pitcher Matt Hobgood in 2009.

On the farm: Triple-A Norfolk lost 11-2 to Durham as the Tides fall to 23-30. But since a poor start, Norfolk is 8-6 in its last 14 games and 20-16 over its last 36. Knuckleballer Mickey Jannis allowed nine hits and six runs over four innings and gave up two homers. Jahmai Jones hit a solo homer, No. 4, as part of a 2-for-4 night. He's batting .296 with a .925 OPS. Mason McCoy added an RBI double for the Tides, who were held to five hits. One was a double by Rylan Bannon, who has rejoined the team from the injured list.

Kyle Bradish (1-2, 4.30 ERA) gets the start for Norfolk tonight with lefty Kevin Smith (1-1, 3.86 ERA) set to start Friday and lefty Alexander Wells (5-3, 4.86 ERA) on Saturday.

Double-A Bowie lost to Richmond 4-3 in 10 innings. The Baysox were losing 2-0 but went ahead on Robert Neustrom's three-run double in the last of the seventh. But Richmond scored once in the eighth to tie it and went ahead in the top of the 10th. The Baysox stranded the automatic runner at second base in the last of the 10th when three straight hitters struck out.

Neustrom is having a very solid season for the Baysox. In 52 games, he's batting .291/.356/.477/.833 with 13 doubles, three triples, six homers and 47 RBIs. His RBI total matches his season total from 2019. Neustrom was the O's fifth-round pick in 2018 out of the University of Iowa.

Bowie was held to six hits, but Adley Rutschman had a couple of them, going 2-for-3 with two singles and two walks. He's batting .286 with a .922 OPS. Rutschman has 43 walks and 38 strikeouts.

Right-hander Kyle Brnovich threw well allowing four hits and two runs over five innings. Righty Gray Fenter gave up two hits and one run over four innings in relief with six strikeouts. Mike Baumann gets the start for Bowie tonight and John Means will make his next rehab start on Friday for the Baysox at Prince George's Stadium. Grayson Rodriguez will make his next start on Saturday.

High Single-A Aberdeen won 9-1 at Greenville as lefty Drew Rom threw another strong game. Rom allowed three hits in five shutout innings with three walks and six strikeouts. He improved to 6-0 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Rom is tied for the High-A East lead in wins. He ranks fourth in ERA, seventh in WHIP, eighth in strikeouts and ninth in batting average against.

Aberdeen, now 31-24 with six wins its last nine games, got three RBIs from Zach Watson. JD Mundy went 3-for-5 with an RBI double and is batting .287 with a .965 OPS. Jordan Westburg went 2-for-3 with three runs and an RBI and is batting .283/.834. Gunnar Henderson went 1-for-4 with an RBI single.

Low Single-A Delmarva beat Salem, 7-1 to improve to 36-18 and win for the 10th time in the past 12 games. The Shorebirds' win was the 600th in the minor league managing career of skipper Dave Anderson.

Delmarva's Darell Hernaiz had an RBI double, Jean Carmona an RBI single, Cristopher Cespedes a two-run single, Andrew Martinez was hit by a pitch to force in a run, Yorkislandy Alvarez singled in a run and Ramon Rodriguez added a sac fly. Alvarez went 2-for-4 and is batting .294. Hudson Haskin went 3-for-5 with two runs scored and is batting .280 with an .813 OPS.

Starting pitcher Brandon Young allowed one run and hit over four innings. Ignacio Felix was the winning pitcher, throwing four scoreless innings. He is now 3-0 with an ERA of 0.95.

The Shorebirds have certainly been a well-rounded team. Their offense has now scored 90 runs the last 13 games. Shorebirds pitchers lead their league in team ERA at 3.16. In June, Delmarva posted a team ERA of 2.84 with a .203 batting average against.

Derby field is ready: The field has been set for the Home Run Derby on Monday night in Denver at the All-Star Game. The Orioles' Trey Mancini will be part of a field of eight players. The others are:

* Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
* Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
* Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
* Matt Olson, Oakland A's
* Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
* Pete Alonso, New York Mets
* Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

The pairings have been set for the first round and Mancini will face Olson, Ohtani will oppose Soto, it's Gallo against Story and Perez against Alonso.

FINAL | That'll do it as it's win number 600 for our Manager Dave Anderson in his MiLB career! 'Birds 7, Sox 1#Birdland | #FlyTogether pic.twitter.com/08mzsWxj6Q

-- Delmarva Shorebirds (@shorebirds) July 8, 2021