The decision to trade prospects is always challenging

The mood around Birdland – at least on this blog – got a bit tense Sunday in discussions about a possible trade for Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease. It is clear that some fans are very, very nervous about trading prospects. They are waiting and watching to see what executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias will do.

Would he really deal some prospects for a pitcher?

Well, first, keep in mind, he already has.

On Jan. 26, 2023 he acquired lefty Cole Irvin and righty Kyle Virbitsky from Oakland for infielder Darrel Hernaiz, the club’s fifth-round pick in the 2019 draft. At the time of the deal, he was ranked as the Orioles’ No. 16 prospect via MLBPipeline.com and is now No. 9 on Oakland’s top 30. Between Double-A and Triple-A for the Athletics he hit .321 with an .842 OPS, nine homers and 71 RBIs. His MLB debut could be close.

On Aug. 1 last summer, on the final day to make a trade before the MLB deadline, Elias acquired righty Jack Flaherty from St. Louis for infielder César Prieto and pitchers Drew Rom and Zack Showalter. At the time of that deal, Prieto was the O’s No. 16 prospect and Rom No. 18 via MLBPipeline. Showalter was unranked but was the club’s 11^th round pick in 2022 and had done well pitching at lower levels on the farm.

Rom went on to make eight starts for St. Louis in the big leagues, pitching to an ERA of 8.02. He saved his best for the Orioles, throwing 5 1/3 scoreless at the Birds on Sept. 13 at Camden Yards. In three games after that outing, he gave up 15 earned runs in 11 innings.

Prieto, now No. 14 on the St. Louis top 30, didn’t hit as well on the Cardinals watch, batting .270 with a .701 OPS in 38 Triple-A games. Showalter is now rated as No. 19 on the Cards top 30. He pitched just one inning, and it was scoreless, after the trade.

But Elias has never dealt a top 100 prospect, and this is the matter at hand here. It would take a lot to get Cease and the Orioles would likely part with a player or players that fans don’t want to lose, and some think they should not. When to trade prospects and which ones to deal is always one of the toughest decisions any organization can make. There is always the fear that the prospect will come back to haunt you by having a great career.

If you are the team acquiring such players, there must be that concern that if the team truly is willing to deal a key prospect, then there might be some flaw the club knows about, but others do not. Why would they trade player A but not player B?

If you are the trading team, will this player you add be a true difference maker? What is the right price for one year of control and what about two years?

Teams can’t be afraid to trade prospects - in fact it is a normal part of doing business. Teams acquire young talent for two basic reasons – to bring that talent to the majors to help the big league club and to trade that talent for players to help the big league club.

The rebuilding Orioles were once trading established players like Trey Mancini, Dylan Bundy and Jorge Lopez for younger talent. The winning Orioles have young talent to deal for established players. You build an elite talent pipeline to have players to trade.

New and updated top 100 lists will be out soon, possibly later this month, via Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com. On MLBPipeline currently the Orioles have six top 100 players and in fact they are all top 50. Jackson Holliday is No. 1, Colton Cowser No. 14. Heston Kjerstad No. 24, Coby Mayo No. 27, Samuel Basallo No. 46 and Joey Ortiz at No. 50.

Holliday obviously is virtually an untouchable. But how about the rest?

Will the O's deal a big name prospect soon? Would it be part of a bold move that could be a difference-maker for the 2024 season?