The O's pen from the left side without Danny Coulombe and a few other thoughts

Yep, surprising news indeed. Of the five players the O’s held contract options on for the 2025 season, most would have guessed one they surely would bring back at $4 million for next year is lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. 

He’s been a reliable high-leverage reliever for two years for this team. A 2.12 ERA in 2024 and an ERA of 2.56 and WHIP of 0.951 in 94 games in two seasons for the Orioles.

But while the club picked up contract options yesterday on pitchers Seranthony Domínguez and Cionel Pérez and position player Ryan O’Hearn, they declined Coulombe’s option.

Why do that?

We didn’t get to interview anyone yet on this decision so we can only guess at the club’s thinking. Coulombe missed a big chuck of this past season, from June 11 to Sept. 20 after a left elbow procedure to remove bone chips. Now at 35, is there concern about that – also that this was his second career elbow procedure in addition to his 2022 hip surgery?

The current bullpen from the left side includes Keegan Akin, Gregory Soto, Pérez and added to the 40 yesterday, Luis González from Triple-A.

Akin, projected to get $1.4 million via arbitration, posted a 3.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 78 2/3 innings.

He probably had a better year than you may think. That 0.94 WHIP was the lowest by an Oriole left-hander since Zack Britton (0.84 WHIP) in 2016 (min. 40 G). He finished the season among the MLB leaders in expected ERA (97th percentile, 2.52), expected batting average (97th, .188), strikeout percentage (93rd, 31.0), expected weighted on-base average (97th, .250), and expected slugging percentage (91st, .324), per Statcast.

With the Orioles, Soto held right-handed hitters to a .195 batting average and .535 OPS compared to a .414 average (12-for-29) and 1.190 OPS against lefties. Crazy splits.

But, in his final 19 appearances to finish the year, since Aug. 8, Soto posted a 1.10 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. He is one of 10 pitchers in MLB that has made at least 60 appearances in each of the last four seasons since 2021.

Soto is projected to earn $5.6 million via arbitration. He could be non-tendered by the Nov. 22 deadline to do that, but it seems very unlikely now after the Coulombe move. Did the O’s choose between these two lefties and go with the younger lefty with the much bigger fastball?

None of this means Coulombe could not re-sign with the club but now he has the chance to hear from all 30 clubs. Unless the medicals show something truly concerning, surely someone will give this guy a deal, right? 

So, in the end, was this a risky move by the club or will they be covered enough in the 'pen from the left side?

Potential draft haul: Could the Orioles wind up with four of the top 35 or so picks in the 2025 MLB Draft? Yes, they could, if they get two additional picks for Anthony Santander and Corbin Burnes and one more if Colton Cowser gains them a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick for the club by winning the BBWAA Rookie of the Year award. 

According to MLB.com, the O's currently hold pick No. 19 in round one. They made qualifying offers Monday to Santander and Burnes. If they, as expected, decline those offers and sign elsewhere the O's get picks for them leaving. If they sign for $50 million or more guaranteed (again, this is expected), those picks would be right after the first round. Minnesota got the No. 33 pick this year when Sonny Gray signed with St. Louis for $75 million last offseason. 

So with their own pick, two selections for Santander and Burnes and another if Cowser wins ROY, that would net the Birds four picks in say, the top 35 or so.

Free agent target?: Texas Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi on Monday declined a $20 million dollar player option for next year and became a free agent. He will be 35 next Opening Day but could interest a team like the Orioles who could get him likely on a two-year or three-year deal without having to hand out a megabucks pact to one of the top free agent starters.

Eovaldi went 12-8 with a 3.80 ERA for the Rangers in 29 starts and Texas officials say they want him back. But now he can talk to any team. Eovaldi has had an ERA under 4.00 every year since 2020 with a 3.75 mark in that time along with a low walk-rate per nine (2.1) and a reasonable homer rate (1.1 per nine).

He has been a big-game pitcher. In 17 career playoff games, he has a 3.05 ERA and 1.042 WHIP. In six playoff starts when Texas won the 2023 World Series - including one versus the Orioles - Eovaldi went 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA.

More reading: Check out a couple of stories here from a very busy Monday for the Orioles with the Silver Slugger finalists noted here and all the afternoon roster news and moves noted here.