Is it possible, even minus Trey Mancini and Jonathan Villar, that the Orioles offense improves in the 2020 season?
Those are two huge losses. Mancini was the club's Most Valuable Oriole and became the 10th player in club history with 30 doubles, 30 homers and 100 runs. He hit .291 with an .899 OPS. Villar set career highs in hits (176), runs (111), triples (5), home runs (24) and RBIs (73). The 111 runs were the most by an Oriole since Melvin Mora also scored 111 in 2004. According to FanGraphs.com, Villar led the Orioles with 4.0 Wins Above Replacement, which was 18th in the league.
So subtract their two best offensive players before a game is played. And they can be better?
In the second half of the 2019 season, the Orioles produced basically a league-average offense. And, yes, that included Mancini and Villar.
A look at some of the numbers:
American League team average for 2019: .253/.323/.439 with 4.9 runs per game, 1.4 home runs per game, .761 OPS.
O's in 2019 second half: .255/.320/.433 with 4.9 runs/gm, 1.5 HR/gm and .753 OPS.
Here are the O's runs per game and OPS by month:
April: 4.2 and .695
May: 4.1 and .718
June: 4.3 and .704
July: 5.1 and .736
August: 4.6 and .765
September: 4.9 and .743
Here is a take from manager Brandon Hyde.
"Last year, I thought we were a fun offense to watch," said Hyde. "We scored runs, especially the second half. When (Anthony) Santander was a regular in the lineup and Jonny Villar had a really nice second half and Trey there in the middle. Nunie (Renato Núñez) hitting 30-plus homers. You see Sevy (Pedro Severino) was coming into his own and Rio Ruiz was getting better in September. And (Hanser) Alberto was hitting .400 off lefties all year.
"I thought it was a fun team and exciting team. We had our hiccups and made mistakes and we made inexperienced mistakes on the bases, things like that. But our guys never gave up and they did grind. A lot of those guys that are here from last year have continued that and will continue that.
"Trey is an enormous loss. One of the better middle-of-the-order hitters in the American League. That's a huge void. Villar ignited us on offense and won some games for us last year with his bat and his legs. That is tough to replace also. But I think our guys can improve and have improved. When you add in José Iglesias, that's a veteran and he's incredibly steady. A veteran presence that guys can learn from. And our guys are a year older. Now Austin Hays is going to be a regular in our lineup. And not just get September at-bats. I'm looking forward to our guys taking the next step offensively."
To produce as well this year as last year's Orioles did in the second half, they will need year-long production from Hays and Santander. They will need Severino to take another step forward and Alberto to crush lefties again. They'll need Iglesias to produce similar to last season, when he hit .288 with 21 doubles and 11 homers for the Reds. Ruiz showed second-half improvement and that seems to have carried into this year.
A pair of X-factors could be Chris Davis and Ryan Mountcastle. How will Davis fare, and can he carry over his spring training 1.0 success? His frozen-rope double Tuesday off Sean Doolittle was encouraging. Mountcastle seems ready to produce at the major league level, but we just don't know how much of a shot he will get. If he does get an extended look and hits up to his potential, he could be a real nice addition. Or do the Orioles want to give DJ Stewart a big shot in 2020?
Some players will have a hard time repeating some of their 2019 numbers. Núñez hit 31 homers with 90 RBIs and was one of just 20 AL batters with 30 and 90. Alberto hit .305, eighth-best in the AL, and his .398 average against lefties was second-best in the majors.
The Orioles remained an upbeat team with strong chemistry, even as they lost 108 games last season. Hyde said he has a confident group with the new season set to start tomorrow night at Boston. Some players grew up during the ups and downs of last year.
"I think we have a really good group of guys," Hyde said. "I think we have guys that love to play. Think we have guys that have energy. I think we're a little more vocal this year. I think guys are getting a little more comfortable, some guys that were here last year that were kind of just trying to hang on. I feel like they're a little more comfortable in their own skin and they feel like they are big leaguers, so I think that that's a bit easier.
"I think they feel like they have more of a voice now. You know guys like Pedro Severino, who is really stepping up in a lot of ways. Really established himself last year. I think Rio Ruiz is more comfortable. Alberto always brings huge energy. And then playing next to a guy like Iglesias that has played on really good teams and with really good players and has a lot of energy himself, it can be contagious.
"We do have a lot of excitement. Anthony Santander loves to play every day. He was irritated I took him out early in a (exhibition) game after not playing for four months or whatever it is. I just like the personality of our club and I think that is a carryover from last year. From what our clubhouse was like. I do give a lot of credit to our coaching staff. They are really, really positive. It's a great coaches' room. They help me out a ton and they help the players with just being incredibly steady, very honest and very positive. And the players know that they are there for them. It's working out very well."
Roster talk: Taking one last shot at projecting the opening day roster before we find out the 30 later today.
Rotation (5): Tommy Milone, Alex Cobb, Wade LeBlanc, Asher Wojciechowski, Thomas Eshelman.
Bullpen (10): Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, Richard Bleier, Shawn Armstrong, Kohl Stewart, Paul Fry, Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser, César Valdez, Cody Carroll.
Catchers (2): Pedro Severino, Chance Sisco.
Infielders (8): Chris Davis, Hanser Alberto, José Iglesias, Rio Ruiz, Renato Núñez, Pat Valaika, Andrew Velazquez, Dilson Herrera.
Outfielders (5): Austin Hays, DJ Stewart, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, Mason Williams.
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