Trying to answer a few Adley Rutschman questions

By Steve Melewski

Orioles

June 24, 2019, 7:15pm

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It was a banner Monday for Orioles' draft pick signings as they officially announced the signing of Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, who they took with the first pick in the first round. We also learned that they've agreed to terms with second-round pick, high school shortstop Gunnar Henderson from Selma, Ala.

All along the confidence level from the organization was high that they'd get these picks. The process played out and the job got done.

MLBPipeline.com's Jim Callis reported that Rutschman's agreement is for a record $8.1 million and that Henderson will get $2.3 million.

How did the money work out?: For the Orioles, very well, with room to spare. The club has an allotment of $13.82 million to sign the 11 players selected in the top 10 rounds. Also any player signed in rounds 11-40 can get a bonus up to $125,000. The O's could sign a player taken in those rounds for more, but the overage would come out of the draft pool.

According to figures on MLBPipeline.com, the Orioles still could spend $341,700 over slot on their last remaining unsigned top 10 rounds pick (if we count Henderson), center fielder Zach Watson taken in round three from LSU. The slot amount for his pick at No. 79 overall is $780,400.

So the O's could go over slot on Watson and/or still have dollars to make a run at perhaps a high school player they selected that may demand over slot later in the draft. When Henderson's signing becomes official, the Orioles will have signed both high school players taken in the top 10 rounds, the other being fifth-round pick, shortstop Darell Hernaiz.

They drafted just eight high school players among 41 picks, and the remaining six were taken with six of their final seven picks between rounds 34-40.

Why did Rutschman sign for under slot?: Easy answer is, that is basically how the current system is set up to work. Having pick 1/1 is a dual bonus for a club. They'll get the best player available and they also should save a few dollars to use elsewhere.

There have now been three drafts since the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement was put in place in December of 2016. In the 2017 draft Minnesota took prep shortstop Royce Lewis with the overall No. 1 pick. The slot amount was $7.770 million and he signed for $6.725 million which was $1.045 million under. In 2018, Detroit took college pitcher Casey Mize and saved $596,000. The slot was $8.096 million and he got $7.5.

Rutschman's reported bonus of $8.1 million is under the slot amount of $8,415,300 for that pick. It is under slot by $315,300.

So that trend of under-slot signings at 1/1 continued with Rutschman, who at least can say he did set a draft bonus record and he also signed for less under slot than the players taken in 2017 and 2018.

In short, having the 1/1 pick this year allowed the O's to take another player that would cost them big over slot. That player was Henderson. He's expected to get nearly $529,000 over slot, agreeing to $2.3 million, over the slot amount for pick No. 42 of $1,771,100.

So where will Rutschman play?: That question could be answered later today when the Orioles officially introduce Rutschman at a press conference. I've written before that Rutschman's team assignment and even his performance and stats are not critical this summer in his first pro season. He's already played many high-intensity games during his college year. He'll need probably a couple of weeks in Florida to build back up and ramp back up to get into minor league games.

One thought I had was to send Rutschman to short season Single-A Aberdeen to start as they do with most college draft picks. Sure he could likely start higher, but what's the rush here? Let the IronBirds fans (and Cal and Bill Ripken's team) see him for a few weeks where he might also catch some of the pitchers in this draft class. And then, perhaps late in the year Rutschman could be moved to Single-A Delmarva. The Shorebirds will be in the South Atlantic League playoffs in September and it would be exciting to see Rutschman try to help that club win a championship.

Will Adley save this franchise? No one player can do that for this or any team. Hopefuly no one puts such expectations on this kid, although obviously the expectations will be high. He went 1/1 both for his glove and bat - both were special at Oregon State.

In 2018, Rutschman led Oregon State to the College World Series and was named CWS Most Outstanding Player as a sophomore. Three players from that lineup were among the top 37 picks in the 2018 draft. Oregon State lost those players and Rutschman went out and hit better this year without them. He walked twice as much as he struck out and he won numerous college Player of the Year awards.

With his resume and now a record signing bonus, fans will expect greatness. Eventually the Orioles hope they get exactly that on the major league level. But it may take some time. And in the draft there is no "sure thing" or "can't miss." They all can miss. But it seems Adley checks every box and then some.

Can the kid deal with what could be out of control expectations?

Bowie's All-Stars: The Double-A Bowie Baysox will send four players to the Eastern League All-Star game in Richmond on July 10. Pitchers Zac Lowther and Alex Wells and infielders Rylan Bannon and Mason McCoy will play for the Western Division team.

Lowther is 7-4 with an ERA of 1.95 in 13 starts. He had a 21 2/3 innings scoreless stretch in May. Well is 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA over 11 starts. Bannon is batting .277/.366/.399 in 72 games with 17 doubles, one triple, four homers and 27 RBIs. McCoy is batting .333/.392/.435 in 43 games. He began the year with Single-A Frederick and before his promotion hit .379 in 27 games.