Trying to guard against regression in the rotation in 2024

The Orioles rotation – whether they add to it this offseason or not – just might be good enough now to take another run at an American League East championship. Currently, I expect that four members of that rotation look firm: Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means and Dean Kremer.

A fifth or even someone that could bump someone else out of that four could be in a group that includes Tyler Wells, DL Hall and Cole Irvin.

Surely, the Orioles could call on five of that group of seven and feel pretty good about their rotation right now. And again, they may add to that list of pitchers and maybe add someone who is pretty good. At least that was part of the plan when this offseason began.

The O’s rotation ERA of 4.14 for the 2023 year was just seventh-best in the AL for the full season. But it was much better in the second half at 3.74. An ERA of 3.74 for the year would have ranked first in the AL as Minnesota at 3.82 led the AL in rotation ERA for the season.

Kremer and Bradish got off to slow starts this year and Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA at the end of May. The Orioles were 35-21 at the end of May and four games out of first place. So they were doing just fine, but things would get better in the second half when their pitching – especially among their starters - really got going.

Baltimore's second-half team ERA of 3.58 ranked first in the AL and third in the major leagues. Some did not notice those numbers, but the O's pitching was among the best in the game in the second half. 

Still, there are reasons to add another starter. Among them would be to create even more depth among the starting pitchers. But also because there could be some regression among some of the current starters, and perhaps adding a decent pitcher would offset some of that.

Maybe there will be just small regression and it won’t be much of a factor next year, but there is always a chance a team will have to deal with some of it.

Bradish had a 4.13 ERA over his first 10 starts. But, over his last 20 starts, he went 10-5 with a 2.31 ERA, a .191 batting average against, a .548 OPS allowed and 0.92 WHIP.

For the year he went 12-7 with a 2.83 ERA over 168 2/3 innings, allowed just 14 homers, had a 2.3 walk rate, 9.0 strikeout rate and 1.043 WHIP. He finished fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting.

Bradish became the first qualified O's pitcher - qualifying requires a pitcher to have gone at least one inning for every game in his team's season, so 162 innings minimum - with a sub-3.00 ERA since Mike Mussina posted a 2.54 ERA in 1992.

Bradish ended 2023 third in the AL in ERA and fourth in the majors, behind only Blake Snell of San Diego (2.25), Gerrit Cole of the Yankees (2.63) and Sonny Gray of Minnesota (2.79).

He is a regression candidate after such a big year. But even some falloff could still leave him as a pretty formidable pitcher. And if he has truly turned a corner and the ’23 version is who he is now, well, that is a great result for the team.

Rodriguez, after he returned from a stint in the minors, was real, real good. Whatever they did there, it worked.

In his last 12 starts beginning July 22, he went 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA and .569 OPS against. Over his last six starts, his ERA was 1.80. This guy was rolling, and even after blowing past his 2022 innings total of 75 2/3 to get to 163 1/3. That is a gain of 87 2/3 innings, and it was a bit surprising Rodriguez could take on such an innings load and keep pitching well. But he did.

After he threw so well in the final months, he too could be a regression candidate. You don’t want to think negative thoughts like that, but they are realistic thoughts. The O’s are big believers in Bradish and Rodriguez, and last year they gave the team reasons to feel that way. The Orioles plan on them doing it again.

But if they don’t – or even if they falloff, but not in a big way – adding another starter could be insurance against that for the 2024 Orioles.