We could call it a "two tiered" Orioles rotation

We could call it a “two tiered” Orioles rotation at this point. They have two at the top right now in right-handers Zack Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez and three that follow that in some order.

As of today, Eflin or Rodriguez could get the Opening Day assignment with the other starting second.

Third through fifth in some combo, is expected to be Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. That is how I stack it as of today, Kremer, Sugano and Morton fifth. Others may project Morton at No. 3 or Sugano at No. 3. Lot of options here. No lefties in this rotation, but they are in the depth behind this group currently with pitchers like southpaws Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers. Could one of that duo impact the Opening Day five? Of course, it’s baseball, changes and injuries happen. Always write your plans in January in pencil with a big eraser close by.

The Orioles hopes for Eflin are likely big. In 2023 he pitched to an ERA of 3.50 with 16 wins for Tampa Bay and finished sixth for the AL Cy Young award. Traded to the Orioles on July 26 last summer for three minor leaguers, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA over nine starts.

With a combined 3.54 ERA and 1.054 WHIP the past two seasons producing an ERA+ of 115, he will be expected to pitch to that form for the 2025 Orioles.

In Rodriguez, the O’s could have an emerging ace. While his ERA in 20 starts before he got hurt was 3.86, he has been ace-like for many of his last 33 starts. This dates to mid-year in 2023. In that span, he is 18-6 with a 3.35 ERA over 193 1/3 innings with 18 quality starts, a 45.7 groundball rate, a .664 OPS against and 1.18 WHIP.

In those 33 games, the Orioles went 21-12 (.636). In Eflin’s nine starts they went 7-2 (.778). To win at those percentages this coming season is probably asking too much. But how close can they get with their two pitchers in the top tier?

If there are no pitching additions to impact their potential starting five, the pressure will be on the big two to pitch big.

The O’s second tier of pitching – Kremer, Sugano and Morton – has nice potential but some questions to answer too.

Kremer, who turns 29 tomorrow, pitched to an ERA of 3.23 in 2022. But that went up to 4.12 and 4.10 the past two seasons. We have written here about how he pitches so well to opponents the first time through the order, but the performance falls off big the second and third time through. No doubt the club will work with him to make solid adjustments here.

Sugano is a bit of an unknown coming from Nippon Professional Baseball. Last season, he went 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 156 2/3 innings for the Yomiuri Giants and was named Central League MVP. Impressive. Now we wait to find out how he handles pitching in the majors and the rigors and challenges that go with that. How will those stats translate to MLB?

Morton’s questions center around his being 41. How much is left and how good can he be in 2025? If you take his stats since 2023 the Orioles would probably sign up for that right now and run with it big time. He made 60 starts, going 22-22 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.375 WHIP over 328 2/3 innings. In that span he allowed a .248 batting average and made 24 quality starts.

Whatever we call the O's rotation, a starting five, two-tiered or whatever, it's all part of the bigger pitching staff on the 2025 team. They will start with 13 pitchers there and we'll see several more over the course of the year. Who is the replacement for Burnes? Will there be one?

They could still add to this staff and per a report yesterday are still looking for upgrades. No surprise to me. 

How the staff performs as a whole will really determine how they move on without Burnes. The 2023 Orioles, without Burnes, won 101 games. The 2024 Orioles, with him, won 91. It's about the entire year, all 162, and every pitcher that gets a chance to impact games.

No matter what we call it.