What does it mean if a prospect struggles, but in a small sample?

The question to Mike Elias at the Winter Meetings was not about rookie outfielder Colton Cowser specifically. Although it could have applied to him. Elias was basically asked about the impact of a player’s performance in a small sample size. If a top prospect gets a call-up and struggles, what does that mean?

Does the organization get down on the player or does it need more time to evaluate?

Well, it should not surprise us to hear that Elias essentially said they need more time. The small sample size, in many instances, just doesn’t tell us much. While some fans and/or media might surmise a player is not ready or needs more seasoning, sometimes the small sample size just really tells us we don’t have enough at-bats to know yet.

“There comes a point in time where, even if you have been a very successful minor league player, your major league failures start to make people go uh-oh," said Elias. "But it’s a lot longer than a pretty small sample. I don’t know what your definition of that is, but if it’s measured in months rather than a year or more, I would say it’s still pretty small. We have ways of objectively looking at that through our statistical analysis and other things that we do.

“But look, the big leagues are different than Triple-A and in my opinion it’s the biggest jump in the sport. Shohei Ohtani can’t get promoted out of the majors to another league, so it’s the one league where the best players stick around forever. There is a much larger jump from Triple-A to the big leagues and some guys’ success in the minors does not convert.

“But if we are wondering about guys in our organization right now, with where we are at right now, we don’t really have anyone that fits that bill, at least not on the top of my mind.”

Again, he was not talking about Cowser specifically with that last comment, but he could have been. In a way, he was saying we have not seen enough of Cowser yet. The Orioles remain bullish on the player they selected with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2021 draft. 

But as the Orioles promote even more of their top farm talent to the majors, some will struggle during small sample sizes, and fans and the club alike will need the patience to see them through that.

Cowser, 23, for Triple-A Norfolk this year over 87 games hit .300/.417/.520/.937 with 17 homers and 62 RBIs. A player with strong plate discipline, he had a 16.0 walk rate and 26.8 K rate. Cowser is the O’s No. 4 ranked prospect per Baseball America.

Among O’s minor leaguers with 300 or more plate appearances in 2023, he was second in OBP and sixth in batting average, slugging and OPS while fifth in wRC+ at 136.

He made his MLB debut July 5^th and in 77 plate appearances batted just .115/.286/.148/.433. This is where the small sample and struggles came in.

Baseball America likes the tools across the board, giving Cowser 55 grades for hitting, power, running and arm and a 50 grade for fielding.

In the Triple-A national championship game, Cowser’s grand slam led the International League champion Norfolk Tides to a win over the Pacific Coast League champion Oklahoma City Dodgers. He blasted a pitch 455 feet with an exit velocity of 107.6. It showed the big-game and big-swing potential of this top 100 prospect.

Cowser struggled in his go around at the big leagues. But Cal Ripken Jr. did early in his career and so did so many others. It’s what they do after that that truly counts and tells a fuller story. As Elias noted in Nashville, the small sample size is almost always the beginning of an evaluation on a player but not nearly the final one.