Will baseball legislate on defensive shifting in 2019?

At a time when there is some talk in Major League Baseball about limiting or even eliminating defensive shifting, the Orioles now have a general manager that came from the team that shifted the most in the sport last year.

In 2018, the Houston Astros shifted their defense on 37.3 percent of plate appearances. Tampa Bay was second at 30.0, followed by Minnesota at 28.4 and the New York Yankees at 28.2 percent.

The Orioles were among the teams heavily using defensive shifts, ranking seventh at 23.1 percent of plate appearances. A shift is essentially defined as a play in which three infield defenders are on one side of second base.

All the shifts in the game now are simply a result of precise data that teams now have available. O's GM Mike Elias talked about this recently.

Hyde-Presser-w-Elias-Seated-sidebar.jpg"We get information on where the players are likely to hit the ball, and it only makes sense to put your fielders where they are," Elias said. "So, if there is some kind of regulatory change, we'll obviously react to that. The whole league will have to react to that. But, we're going to look to put our fielders in the spots where the balls are most likely to be hit, and that is what everyone is doing right now. It's standard operating procedure across the league right now."

Earlier this month, Jayson Stark of The Athletic wrote an excellent article examining this topic.

"At last month's owners meetings, baseball's competition committee gave the commissioner 'strong' backing to try to 'put something in place' to limit shifts, according to sources who spoke directly with members of the committee," Stark wrote. "So next up, it's time to run this - and more - past the players' union."

Elias was asked how he would feel about any changes made to defensive shifts.

"Personally, I don't have strong opinions on that," he said. "I think the game is great the way it is right now. And one of the cool things about the sport is, throughout its history, the adjustments that are made as the style of play evolves. So, this is just part of that, to me. It's the era that we're in. Obviously, if the league collectively makes some kind of decision, we'll proceed along those lines. But I'm not interested in advocating for any changes, just me personally.

"Look, coaches have always - even before this batted-ball data was available with such precision and volume - coaches have always done their best to try and chart where hitters' tendencies were. They did it with their eyeballs, with scouting staffs, with pen and paper. Now we have these machines that collect every batted ball and tell you exactly where they went and how fast the ball was traveling. It's really just an extension of something that was always done. We're just doing it with a lot more precision now, so it's made it a more powerful tool."

Defensive shifts have led to a decrease in batting averages and scoring. And there is not just the effect of limiting run-scoring, but shifting could be cutting down on great plays made by infielders. With more balls hit right at them, there are fewer chances to have to range to make acrobatic and athletic plays that are exciting and fun to watch. At a time with so many strikeouts in the game, there are just fewer balls in play that challenge fielders. That creates less action and affects pace of play.

Here is something interesting in defensive stats from last season: While Houston shifted the most, the Chicago Cubs shifted third-least, at just 5.1 percent. New O's skipper Brandon Hyde comes from the Cubs, and Elias from the Astros.

The Orioles' Chris Davis might be watching these developments closely. Opponents shifted on him in 91.9 percent of his plate appearances last year, more than for any other player. It might not be quite this simple, but as Davis has been shifted for more and more, his average has dropped. From .262 in 2015 to .221, then .215 and to .168 last year.

Should MLB consider limiting or eliminating shifts? Would it be good for the game? Or would it just be rewarding hitters who can't take advantage of them?




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