Will the O's look toward the Astros in the Rule 5 draft?

LAS VEGAS - The Orioles have the No. 1 pick in the Rule 5 draft, which is the last event of the Winter Meetings. It takes place 9 a.m. Pacific time on Thursday at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino.

Baseball America executive editor J.J. Cooper is as knowledgeable of that draft as anyone and has written on it and studied it for years. Here is his latest story previewing this year's draft.

The Houston connection with the Orioles' Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal could come into play on Thursday.

"The Orioles have the No. 1 pick and they also have a new GM, who came from a very deep farm system that had to leave some players unprotected," Cooper said today during an interview for "MASN All Access." "So, you look at it, we know they are going to take somebody and you look at their roster right now and shortstop makes a lot of sense.

"Richie Martin is among the top players available. First-round pick of the A's in 2015 from Florida. Had a productive season in Double-A. His athleticism slipped a little bit. But that's a guy that makes some sense. But then you talk about him (Elias) being with the Astros and there are a number of Astros prospects available that might fit for the Orioles as well."

Cooper noted three Houston prospects that could be of interest to the Orioles.

"Riley Ferrell (a right-handed pitcher) definitely stands out. Mike Elias drafted Ferrell for the Astros. This was a guy that we thought would be a fast-moving closer but what ended up happening was, he had an aneurysm. So he had shoulder surgery that slowed him down a bit. But he has back-of-the-bullpen type stuff if he throws enough strikes.

"But if they want to go in a different direction, and I have heard some rumblings that they might want to go pitching with that No. 1 pick, there is also (right-hander) Cy Sneed, who is more of guy that could go more innings, a more pitchability type guy from the Houston organization.

"If they wanted a shortstop - and I think this might be a stretch - but there is Jonathan Arauz. He was added in the Ken Giles trade a few years ago. Really good defensive shortstop, didn't really hit in High-A. He's another guy where you could construct a plausible case for him."

We should note that Elias said yesterday that Jonathan Villar is his "primary" shortstop right now. So if the O's need a second baseman, the shortstops they look at could move over there. There is also a second sacker they could target, too.

"Kean Wong with the Rays is a second baseman with two years of Triple-A experience," Cooper said. "Was the MVP at the Triple-A national championship game two years ago. Younger brother of Kolten Wong, the Cardinals second baseman. He's a solid player, gets on base, hits for average and has been very productive. The arm is a little weak and that is kind of a limiting factor for him at second. But he has extensive upper level experience. Kind of surprised he didn't get a call-up last September."

It seems rather unlikely that the Orioles would trade the No. 1 pick; teams that deal picks in the Rule 5 draft usually acquire cash considerations and not other players. The team with the pick actually makes the pick and the trade is announced after the draft is over.

Cooper said, at last check, seven of the 30 major league teams have full 40-man rosters and cannot pick. He said he's been told several other teams will not make a Rule 5 pick. Last year, 18 players were taken in the major league phase, three by the Orioles. Two years ago, 18 players were taken, two by Baltimore. Of those 36 players, 26 were pitchers.

Often, what turns out to be a good Rule 5 pick was not a player taken No. 1.

"Generally, that has not been the case," said Cooper. "If you look at the great Rule 5 picks, Josh Hamilton was a great selection and not the No. 1 pick. Johan Santana, not the No. 1 pick. The guys that have been the home runs of the Rule 5 have usually not been taken at No. 1."

While Orioles fans were sometimes frustrated that an O's team bent on contending took a Rule 5 pick in recent years, certainly the rebuilding Orioles should make a selection. Especially when they have the top pick.

"Absolutely," said Cooper. "But I've always said: Don't draft a Rule 5 player with the thought that you will keep him that year and then send him back to the minors the next year. That usually doesn't work. But you can find guys that can help out and be productive role players. And again, when you are talking about a team with a lot of needs, that can fill a need here and there."