Wondering about the lineup as opening day approaches

The Orioles will work out later today at Camden Yards in their final preparation for Thursday's season opener against the Twins. Unless you count batting practice the following day, of course. But this afternoon marks the last time that the Orioles gather before the games are real.

The roster appears to be set. The Orioles aren't expected to make any late moves to alter it, though no one is issuing promises.

Manager Buck Showalter told the media Monday in Norfolk that he sat with executive vice president Dan Duquette on the team charter and reviewed the various transactions in baseball.

"There are a lot of chairs moving around right now," he said, "but we like where we are."

Added Duquette: "I think we have the people here where we can start our season and hopefully get off to a good start."

I've been asked in multiple interviews to provide my biggest camp surprise. How far back are we going?

I didn't show up to the Ed Smith Stadium complex last month anticipating that Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Colby Rasmus, Danny Valencia and Pedro Álvarez would be on the opening day roster, and Alex Cobb would be throwing at extended spring training. I thought Tillman was the most likely of the group to make it to Baltimore and Cashner always seemed like a fit, but they weren't assured of it.

Keeping two of their Rule 5 pitchers also can be classified as a stunner in some circles, despite the team's early claims that it hoped to hold onto all three of them. One seemed more realistic, but reliever Pedro Araujo didn't just crash the party. He was the first arrival, outperforming Nestor Cortes Jr. and José Mesa Jr.

Four spots are needed on the 40-man roster to accommodate Rasmus, Valencia, Alvarez and Craig Gentry. Pitchers will be peeled off it.

Showalter might wait until Thursday to reveal his opening day lineup. The names seem fairly easy to plug in except for designated hitter. Is it Álvarez against Twins right-hander Jake Odorizzi or does switch-hitter Anthony Santander get the nod?

The outfield figures to set up left to right as Trey Mancini, Adam Jones and Rasmus. Tim Beckham, assuming the groin injury is in the past, makes his sixth major league start at third base. Manny Machado makes his 50th at shortstop, with Jonathan Schoop at second base and Chris Davis at first.

Caleb Joseph is expected to catch starter Dylan Bundy. Chance Sisco is the backup. Backups don't start on opening day. No one in the organization has hinted at a platoon.

Odorizzi is a reverse-splits guy with right-handers batting .250 against him and left-handers hitting .221.

The identity of the leadoff hitter is a mystery and the most intriguing aspect of the lineup. Somebody has to bat first.

Davis was the choice toward the end of spring training after the forearm/elbow soreness subsided, but mainly to recoup the at-bats he lost while idle. Showalter has labeled Davis a candidate based primarily on walk totals.

Davis registered on-base percentages of .370 in 2013 and .361 in 2015. His .332 OBP in 2016 ranked third on the club and second for players appearing in more than 95 games (Sorry, Hyun Soo Kim).

Putting Davis atop the order isn't as crazy as it might appear, but leadoff hitters generally don't strike out 200 times in a season, so the idea will attract its share of critics.

No one on the club is a logical choice. Concessions will have to be made, whether it's strikeouts, low on-base percentage or below-average speed.

Mancini was new to the role last summer, did it twice and now seems like a viable candidate. Or just go back to Beckham and his career .310 OBP. He can run.

Odorizzi, acquired from the Rays on Feb. 17 for minor league infielder Jermaine Palacios, was 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in three spring starts. He's 5-4 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in 18 career games (17 starts) against the Orioles and 3-3 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in nine starts at Camden Yards.

Schoop is 11-for-29 (.379) with four doubles and a home run against Odorizzi. Jones is 14-for-43 (.326) with a double and two home runs. Machado is 12-for-43 (.279) with a double, four home runs and 11 RBIs. Alvarez is 4-for-12 (.333) with a home run. Valencia is 3-for-10 (.300) with two home runs.

Rasmus is 1-for-11 (.091) with a triple and six strikeouts. Davis is 7-for-33 (.212) with two doubles, three home runs, seven walks and 14 strikeouts.