The Orioles have only played 21 percent of their season. In an NFL season, we would be in week four. But they have fallen so far, so fast, they seem to have left team management little choice.
At some point - and maybe it will be very soon - they are probably left with one clear move: Rebuild, and begin the process of trying to put together the next great Orioles team. Maybe that effort will eventually come up short, but the current effort to contend is failing big.
The Orioles were mostly a success story in recent seasons. They won more games from 2012 to 2016 than any other American League team and made the playoffs three times. They even were in contention late last season and were three games over .500 as late as Sept. 5. But they went 4-19 to end last year and 8-26 to start this one. That is 12-45 (.211) over 57 games. That is very bad baseball, and fans see few reasons for hope.
But a rebuild would provide hope and I think most fans would be on board with it. Fans on message boards like this one and call-in shows seem to be very on board with the prospect of rebuilding. They certainly don't speak for all fans, but that seems to be the pulse of Birdland at this point.
A rebuild would likely have to be jump-started with a Manny Machado trade. If he is dealt soon he would be much more than a two-month, trade-deadline rental. Perhaps that provides a better trade return. His bat is hot and we've seen him make some great plays at shortstop. He could be a difference-maker for any team. An acquiring team would be the only one that could negotiate with Machado on a long-term contract for the rest of this season. The Orioles would lose on a compensatory draft pick for Machado, but they would be able to exceed that return via a trade.
The Orioles went 12-45 the last 57 games with him. At this point he is worth more to the future of the Orioles than their present. If the Orioles deal Machado, that should be only a beginning. The words "fire sale" come to mind.
Team management should explain to the fans this is their decision (if it turns out to be such) and be honest enough to say the team might not contend for a while. Ask fans to be patient. What they tried for 2018 is not working. The Orioles already do a great job with fan promotions, and maybe some can be based around the younger players that would find their way onto the roster.
At some point, when they are deemed ready or near ready, the club should bring up, in some order, the likes of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Tanner Scott, David Hess and Hunter Harvey. Others that play their way into major league readiness, come on down. They should not be seen as players here to save the day, but rather those the club needs to look at to see if they can be part of a winning future.
The Orioles futures of both Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter are uncertain. That has been true for a whille, though. Both have contracts that expire after the 2018 season. A record of 8-26 has put everyone under the microscope, including the top two decision-makers.
Even before this season began we knew that the 2019 Orioles would likely look very different than the 2018 version, and we knew that Duquette and Showalter had expiring contracts.
But this start has been so bad it has speeded a few things up. It's pretty much time to act. No one could have expected any decision to begin to look toward the future happening in early May. But here we are. The on-field performance has left little choice at this point.
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