Zach Wilt: O's need to finish strong for shot at postseason

This morning we turn the page on our calendars, or simply swipe up on our smartphones, as September begins and we near the finish line of the 2016 MLB season. With 29 games remaining, the Baltimore Orioles sit four back of the first place Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East and tied with the Tigers for the second wild card spot. August marked the O's second losing month of the year, as they finished 13-15. They went 12-14 in July.

FanGraphs.com projects that the Birds will go 15-14 in the last month of the season, finishing the year with 87 wins and 75 losses. It would be the Orioles' fifth consecutive season at or above .500, but would it be enough to make the postseason for the first time since 2014? August 15 was the last time the Birds sat in first place in the East and they've seen their division and playoff probabilities dip ever since. Here on September 1, FanGraphs gives the O's a 3.7 percent chance of winning the division and a 27.2 percent chance of hanging on to a wild card spot for a total of 31 percent chance of playing October baseball.

The surging Detroit Tigers, winners of eight of their last 10, have slightly better wild card odds than the Orioles, despite their identical records. Don't count out the Houston Astros either. The Rangers may have the AL West locked up, but Houston just went 16-13 in August and has a 23.7 percent chance of making that play-in game. It's going to be a fun final month of the season.

So, how do the O's hang on? What will it take for them to get back to the type of baseball they were playing in June, when they looked like the best team in the majors? In my opinion, it all starts with the offense.

A remarkable 50.89 percent of the Orioles total runs scored this season have come from the home run. Only the Mets are more dependent on the long ball this season. In June, the Orioles mashed a record-breaking 56 homers and, in the process, scored more runs than any team in baseball (185). The O's have always masked their weaknesses with power and it will have to be a crucial part of their game in September if they plan to make up ground in the standings. The good news for them is that Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo all hit 10 homers in August and seem to be leading the charge going forward. If they can add a healthy Adam Jones to the mix, who hit 11 in June, they can score some serious runs in their remaining 29 games.

When you look back at that historic June for the Birds, everyone talks about the long balls. They're exciting and should be mentioned first. However, perhaps the most important part of the offensive production that month was the team's .357 on-base percentage, the highest in baseball. When the Orioles can turn solo homers into two- or three-run blasts, they can stack up wins a lot easier. In August the O's still led the majors in home runs with 55, but had just a .306 OBP which resulted in 132 runs scored (16th in MLB). They've got to pair the homers with base runners.

Besides the offense, the strength of this Orioles club is in their bullpen. They've got the best closer in baseball in Zach Britton and top tier shutdown relievers handing the ball to him in the ninth. However, in August things seemed to unravel a bit for Buck Showalter's bullpen and they finished the month with the highest ERA in the majors at 6.43. Not having Darren O'Day hurts and the overuse of guys like Brad Brach and Mychal Givens has caused their numbers to decline later in the season. Showalter has done his best to plug these holes with guys like Donnie Hart and the newly acquired Tommy Hunter.

The real solution for the bullpen, however, is simply more innings from their starting rotation. The Birds have gotten just 722.1 innings from their starters this season, ranking 25th in baseball. On the bright side, the bullpen was slightly below league average with 157.2 innings in August thanks to some longer outings by Kevin Gausman and recently Ubaldo Jimenez. The X-factor for the Birds in September has got to be Chris Tillman. If he can return strong and pitch the way he did the first four months of the season, it strengthens the rotation and helps save the bullpen.

It's going to be an exciting final month of baseball for the Orioles again. They should hit a bunch of homers and lock down tight wins with Britton's consistent sinker. With a few more base runners and innings from their rotation, they can make a run for October. Hopefully the fans pack Camden Yards and give the AL's winningest club over the last four years the type of crowd they deserve for their remaining 15 home games.

Zach Wilt blogs about the Orioles at Baltimore Sports Report. Follow him on Twitter: @zach_wilt. His views appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.