Coby Mayo on getting to start the spring training opener

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SARASOTA, Fla. – For young Orioles infield prospect Coby Mayo, it was not just another spring training game. It was his first chance to be in the starting lineup wearing an Orioles jersey.

In an interview before yesterday’s spring training opener with the Twins, Mayo recalled he had gotten one previous spring at-bat against the Yankees and had played one inning in the field versus the Phillies last spring. But Saturday he got the start, batting eighth for the Orioles and playing at third base.

He is a non-roster player at O’s spring camp and his day to make this team is not quite yet at hand, but for now Mayo, 21, is soaking up all he can in a clubhouse with big leaguers.

“Just being in this environment has been great,” he said in the Baltimore clubhouse. “Really cool to watch these guys last year do what they did and have a lot of success during the season. Coming in and being a part of this environment this spring – it’s been really good. It’s a fun group to be around and cool to see how everyone acts with each other. This (a playoff chase) is hopefully the next big thing for this team.”

On a day the Orioles beat the Twins 10-5, Mayo had a somewhat uneventful day. He went 0-for-1 with a walk and played five innings at third base, but no balls were hit his way. 

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Drew Rom and a host of non-roster pitchers scheduled to take the mound for spring opener

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SARASOTA, Fla. – The Orioles' 2023 spring training schedule begins today at Ed Smith Stadium. They host the Minnesota Twins at 1:05 this afternoon to begin a Grapefruit League schedule that runs through March 27 in advance of the club’s March 30th regular-season opener at Boston.

So the battle for rotation spots and pitching staff jobs takes another step today with the start of spring games. While veterans like Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson – barring injury – almost certainly have a starting-five spot secure, there are a host of others battling for only three other spots.

There are more strong candidates than just three for those jobs, including Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and DL Hall. And then there are Spenser Watkins, who made 20 O’s starts last year, Austin Voth, who made 17, and Bruce Zimmermann, who took the mound as a starter 13 times.

On Thursday night I hosted the "Orioles Hot Stove" radio show on WBAL and one of the guests was assistant pitching coach Darren Holmes, who is beginning his fourth season with the club and third in his current role.

Holmes said the entire pitching staff seemed to report in pretty good shape, and all did good work on their games and pitches over the winter.

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Rotation candidate: Irvin looks to bring command, pitch efficiency to O's

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It’s been less than a month since he was traded to the Orioles. But over the next month we’ll see lefty Cole Irvin pitch in spring training games for his new team as he hopes to make a mark in the Orioles rotation this year.

On Jan. 26 the Orioles traded minor league infielder Darell Hernaiz, their No. 16 prospect at the time via MLBPipeline.com, to the Oakland Athletics for Irvin and A-ball right-hander Kyle Virbitsky.

Irvin went 9-13 with a career-best 3.98 ERA and 15 quality starts for the A’s in 2022. He threw 181 innings – the 12th-most in the American League – and recorded a 1.16 WHIP with a low 1.8 walk rate and low 6.4 strikeout rate. His ERA was 17th-best in the AL among qualifying pitchers.

Irvin’s command and control are very good and his walk rate was the sixth-best among AL qualifying pitchers. And among pitchers that threw 100 innings or more last season, his walk rate was 18th-best. In 2022 he walked two batters or fewer in 29 of 30 starts, and eight times he didn’t walk a single batter.

And his 14.4 pitches per inning, which would be 86 for six innings and 101 pitches over seven frames, ranked second-best in the AL last season and third in the major leagues. He needed just 15.0 pitches per inning during the 2021 season. He's the model of pitch efficiency.

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Another top 100 list as prospect rankings season winds down

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We have about come to the end of “prospects ranking season” in baseball with the release on Wednesday of the FanGraphs.com top 100 prospects list. It actually goes 112 players deep.

The Orioles placed six players on this list, all among the first 66 ranked players. Infielder Gunnar Henderson got another No. 1 ranking and is the consensus top prospect in baseball, and he still holds rookie eligibility as 2023 begins. He is among the favorites to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award this November.

On the FanGraphs list, he also got just one of two 65 FV player rankings, meaning their Future Value number. FanGraphs calls Henderson “a well-rounded star and franchise cornerstone.”

Young Jackson Holliday, an O’s non-roster spring invitee about to enter his first full pro season, is ranked No. 9 and is one of 12 players on the FanGraphs list getting 60 FV grades.

Here is recap of where six major outlets ranked 11 different Orioles who got a top 100 listing from at least one outlet. I abbreviate BA for Baseball America, BP for Baseball Prospectus, MLBP for MLBPipeline.com and Athl for The Athletic. The rest are self-explanatory.

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During first full-team workout, O's skipper reminds team they haven't done it yet

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It is pretty clear that the Orioles are excited to be taking part in spring training and fired up for a season in which expectations are raised after the team went 83-79 last year. They had the best record of any American League non-postseason team.

Now they take aim at their first playoff berth since the 2016 AL wild card game.

“Guys are really excited. Really love the talent here. It’s a great character group,” manager Brandon Hyde told reporters Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium.

He was asked about his message to the team, which wants to show it can be a contender after the Orioles gained 31 wins from 2021 to 2022.

“Honestly, just want us to build off last year,” Hyde said. “We have a (large) core group of guys, they got a lot of confidence from last year. It’s pretty much just building off a season where nobody expected us to do anything.

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Rotation candidate: A closer look at Kyle Gibson's mostly solid two-year run

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He is not only the oldest player on the Orioles’ 40-man roster, but he is also the only one born before 1990. He is right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson, signed to a one-year contract in December.

After a year where his ERA was 5.05 over 31 starts, many may consider him a back-end of the rotation talent, even if he slots higher than that in the Orioles' Opening Day rotation.

But I can present some stats that might surprise you – they did surprise me.

It starts with this: Yes, Gibson’s ERA was 5.05 for all of last year. But it was 4.08 entering September. The average MLB ERA for 2022 was 3.96, so at that point he was not too far off. But in six starts to end his season – from that point on – Gibson allowed an ERA of 9.73. That meant his ERA ballooned up to end his year. It also meant his first-half ERA of 4.35 looked much better than the second-half number of 6.01.

Gibson, 35, is a former first-round pick in the 2009 draft out of the University of Missouri who has registered a 4.52 career ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 10 MLB seasons. He spent the first seven with the Twins, parts of the next two with the Rangers and parts of the last two with the Phillies.

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As spring games get set to start, we find out if there will be roster surprises

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If the question is can someone surprise us and make the Orioles’ Opening Day roster, no doubt that answer is yes. Nothing is completely set and we haven’t seen one pitch thrown in a spring game yet. Jobs can be won, even by non-roster players and we can and may well see surprises.

This leads to another question – how important will spring training stats and performances be?

In the past my impression has been that the O’s front office doesn’t put much stock in spring stats. No one is likely to win a job based for the most part on spring numbers. But as always in spring, the numbers mean more to fringe players and that those out to win jobs. If Anthony Santander bats .150 this spring or Ryan Mountcastle goes without a homer or is not driving the ball as Opening Day approaches, their spot in the Game 1 lineup is likely pretty secure at that point.

Even newcomers like Adam Frazier and James McCann have track records the team already likes to have acquired them in the first place. They seem to have, in my humble opinion, little to prove or show in spring games.

The other aspect that is always tricky about spring training is who were the stats acquired against. Did a pitcher roll through the Rays B team for three innings or did he roll through a couple of innings against mostly starters in a road game? Some veteran players may be working on certain pitches or certain hitting approaches that could lead to poor stats but lead them to learn about tweaks or adjustments they will need when the season starts.

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It's a game of inches for basestealers this season

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It is reasonable to wonder how many more stolen bases we will see in the majors this coming season with the new rules in place. Those who can run may get more chances than in previous seasons. It’s fair to wonder what that could mean for the team with the two top basestealers in the American League last year: the Orioles.

Shortstop Jorge Mateo stole 35 bases on 44 attempts to lead the AL in 2022, and his teammate Cedric Mullins was second, just one base behind, getting 34-of-44. Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena stole 32 bases, and then came Bobby Witt Jr. of Kansas City with 30.

By leading the AL, Mateo became the third Oriole (fourth occurrence) to lead the league in steals, joining Brian Roberts (2007) and Luis Aparicio (1963 and 1964). He is the sixth O's player (eighth time) since 2000 with at least 35 stolen bases.

As a team, the Orioles stole 95 bases (with Mateo and Mullins producing nearly 73 percent of that) to rank tied for fifth in the AL and tied for 11th in the majors. It was a big jump from Baltimore’s 54 steals in 2021, which was tied for 12th-most in the AL.

So they return two of the top basestealers at a time when stealing bases could become easier. Or it sure appears they could.

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Rotation candidate: Dean Kremer posted 3.23 ERA last season for O's

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Right-hander Dean Kremer, who had an ERA of 7.55 in 13 starts in the 2021 season, reduced that by over four runs per game last year. It provides hope that he could again this season be a key member of the Baltimore rotation.

No one has won a job yet and a lot can happen over the next few weeks under the Florida sun, but Kremer had a strong season over 22 games and 125 1/3 innings in 2022, going 8-7 with a 3.23 ERA. His 124 ERA+ was 24 percent better than league average.

Kremer did that while posting below-average strikeout rates, but he was above average in walk rate and homer rate, and used solid spin rates to create effective pitches that provided him with a strong season.

His ERA, had he enough innings to qualify for league leaders at 162, would have ranked 11th last year in the American League. Among pitchers throwing 120 or more innings as a baseline, his ERA was tied for 17th. Among the 18 pitchers on that list, he ranked last in K rate at 6.2 and his strikeout percentage was 17.0 while major league average was 22.9. His walk rate, though, was 2.4 and his walk percentage of 6.6 topped the major league average of 8.5.

Kremer was particularly good when pitching on exactly four day’s rest, going 3-2 with a 1.77 ERA and .656 OPS against.

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Bullpen injury news from the first day and a few other notes

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The first day of spring training for the Orioles produced the first news of a player that will miss opening day. And it comes from the O’s bullpen. We can always count on the start of spring to produce information on which players will be “slow-played” or be on a list of no play, not playing yet at all.

Bullpen righty Dillon Tate will begin the season on the injured list. He strained his right flexor/forearm in November. That will also keep him from pitching for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.

We also learned yesterday that closer Félix Bautista is questionable for opening day as he’s been rehabbing his left knee this winter and is on a strengthening program for his shoulder. Missing one or both of these pitchers for any length of time would be a huge loss.

Also, lefty DL Hall will be slow-played due to lower lumbar discomfort, which first showed up about three weeks ago.

O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias told reporters they expect Tate back in late April or early May. Tate’s situation makes the addition of right-hander Mychal Givens maybe more important now.

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New season, new rules for MLB

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The Orioles take the field today in Sarasota, Fla., for the first official workout of the new season. Yes, baseball is back. The first spring training game is set for a week from Saturday at Ed Smith Stadium against the Minnesota Twins.

With the new year comes new rules in Major League Baseball. We will see a pitch clock, restrictions on infield shifts and larger bases.

The pitch clock has at least one intended goal: reducing time of games. The average MLB game lasted three hours and seven minutes last season, and officials think there is a chance we see that time trimmed as much as 25 minutes per contest.

Requiring that two infielders be positioned on either side of second base should allow for more action in the game. More balls should get through to the outfield, leading to more hits, but infielders also will have more ground to cover, putting a premium again on range and possibly bringing more great defense back to the game. Think more diving plays and off-balance throws.

Last year teams shifted a combined 60,765 times on the infield, with more shifts coming versus lefty batters on the right side of the infield. Now there can only be two infielders on each side of second base, and they must be on the infield dirt. The MLB batting average for 2022 of .243 should go up a bit. That was the lowest in the game since 1968. On the other hand, minor league teams last year saw just a two-point gain in batting average – from .247 to .249 - with the shift-limiting rules in place.

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At least one projection is not quite bullish on the Orioles right now

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While the Orioles' stated goal for this year is to take their 83 wins from last year, build on that and make the playoffs, not everyone believes that will happen. Or at least their predictions and projections lead you to believe they are skeptical.

The Orioles gained 31 wins last year to get to 83, and that was the second-biggest win gain from one year to the next in team history. The 1989 Orioles won 87 games, a year after the club won just 54 in 1988, for a plus-33.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2022 Orioles were the first team since 1900 to win at least 77 games in a season after losing 110 or more games the previous year. And they were also the first team in major league history to win more than 70 games after finishing each of the previous three full seasons (150+ G) with 100+ losses.

But while Birdland is excited to see if their club can get back to the playoffs in 2023, others being heard from are trying to throw some cold water on the whole thing.

We can always count on the PECOTA projections for this.

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Oriole Park to host Bruce Springsteen concert in September

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Oriole Park at Camden Yards will host another major concert in September. Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band have announced additional North American dates for their 2023 international tour in 18 cities.

“As a lifelong fan of Bruce Springsteen and of my hometown, it’s an honor to announce that on Sept. 9, 2023, Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band will play their first ever outdoor stadium show in Baltimore at Oriole Park at Camden Yards,” said Orioles Chairman and CEO, John Angelos. 

The newly added shows will begin at Chicago's Wrigley Field on Aug. 9 and running through Dec. 8 at San Francisco's Chase Center. Multiple nights have been scheduled for Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park (Aug. 16 and 18), New Jersey's MetLife Stadium (Aug. 30 and Sept. 1), Toronto's Scotiabank Arena (Nov. 14 and 16) and Los Angeles' Kia Forum (Dec. 4 and 6). Tickets for the 22 added North American shows will go on sale over the course of the next two weeks.

For many cities, the tour will be using Verified Fan via Ticketmaster. Verified Fan requires pre-registration at verifiedfan.ticketmaster.com/springsteen and is open through Sunday Feb. 19 at 11:59 p.m. ET. Verified Fan is intended to make it easier for fans to get tickets, and harder for resellers and bots.

For more information about Verified Fan visit blog.ticketmaster.com/bruce-springsteen-e-street-band2023/.

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Rotation candidate: Kyle Bradish had strong finish in 2022

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He is one of a host of Orioles' rotation candidates that number about 10 to 12 as spring training is set to begin, but right-hander Kyle Bradish may have a leg up on some of his competition. His strong finish to the 2022 season is one big reason for that.

On the year, over 23 games and 117 2/3 innings, he went 4-7 with a 4.90 ERA, allowing 119 hits with 46 walks and 111 strikeouts. He recorded a 1.402 WHIP with a 3.5 walk rate, 8.5 K rate and 1.3 homer rate. He had a 45.3 groundball rate and his Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.39 was an improvement on his overall ERA.

But late in the year he was throwing quite well. Over his last 13 games, after returning in late July from right shoulder inflammation, he went 3-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. In those games he allowed a batting average of .212 and .607 OPS.

But in his last eight games he really had a strong finishing kick, going 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA and he allowed just two homers over 45 2/3 innings. In those eight games, he recorded four quality starts, posted a 1.01 WHIP, allowing a .169 batting average and OPS of .500. All just about dominant numbers.

And those eight games were against in order Houston, Cleveland, Toronto, Boston, Toronto, Houston, Boston and the New York Yankees. In the two starts versus the eventual World Series winning Astros, he pitched a combined 16 2/3 scoreless innings allowing just four hits with two walks and 16 strikeouts.

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A look at how the 2023 Orioles could get off to a fast start

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The 2022 season may have seen the Orioles produce their first winning record since 2016. And it saw them lose fewer than 100 games in a full-season for the first time since 2017.

In the end there were 83 wins for the Orioles, and a winning percentage of .512. But it didn’t start all that well.

They were 0-3 after being swept to start the year in St. Petersburg, Fla. and 1-5 after two series. They were 3-8 after 11 games and 7-14 at the end of April. They were 21-30 when May ended and did not reach the .500 mark until getting to 44-44 on July 12.

But the group of Orioles heading to spring training this week has designs on playing well right from the jump this year and the schedule could play into those hopes.

The Orioles officially begin their 14th spring training in Sarasota, Fla. this week. Pitchers and catchers are due to report by Wednesday, but no doubt the camp is bustling already with players reporting early and the small group of prospects taking part in an early hitting camp.

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A few notes on the WBC that starts next month

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We are now a little over three weeks away from the start of the fifth World Baseball Classic. The now expanded to 20-nation tourney begins with four pools of five teams each playing games in Taiwan, Tokyo, Phoenix and Miami.

Team USA will play in Pool C at Chase Field in Phoenix along with Canada, Colombia, Mexico and Great Britain. The two top teams in each of the four pools advance to the quarterfinals and play is then single-elimination, one and done, from that point on. The semi-finals are March 19-20 in Miami with the championship game set for March 21.

Here are past winners:

2006 – Japan

2009 – Japan

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From farm to the majors, O's are making gains in plate discipline stats

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When it comes to scoring runs, the Orioles were slightly below American League average in 2022 – due in large part to a scoring drought late in the year.

The AL average for runs per game last season was 4.22 and the Orioles were at 4.16. They ranked 10th in the league in runs scored, up from 2021, when the Orioles were 14th.

And for much of last season they were about league average in runs, or just above. They were scoring 4.20 runs per game at the All-Star break and were at 4.24 per game at the end of August. But when they scored just 3.97 per game in the last month that brought the final season average down.

So there is progress to make here.

And yes, some of it, maybe much of it, can come from full seasons of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. They combined for 559 plate appearances last year and they could double that this coming season.

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After AFL MVP honor, Heston Kjerstad is ready for big league spring training shot

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Outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad is trending up, and he’s soaking in all of it. After all, he had to wait 27 months between his last game for the University of Arkansas and his first pro game, which he played June 10 for the Delmarva Shorebirds, the Orioles' Single-A affiliate.

In between the two, a pandemic ended his 2020 Arkansas season early. Then myocarditis kept him out of the 2021 season and a hamstring issue kept him off an opening day roster last year. Talk about a long wait to play. But the 23-year-old lefty hitter started to look like his old self late last year. He had a strong finish for High-A Aberdeen, carried that into the league playoffs and then was named MVP of the Arizona Fall League.

So it was easy to understand his emphatic answer when he was asked if he is limited at all physically as spring training is about to begin.

“No chance. I’m feeling good, feeling great,” Kjerstad said during last Saturday’s happy hour Birdland Caravan stop in Baltimore. “Luckily, got everything else behind me and just ready to focus on this season. Play a lot of baseball and, hopefully, work my way up.”

And for him it will start at major league spring training. He was one of the non-roster invitees to big league camp.

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Can a couple returning vets elevate their offense for the O's?

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When it comes to how much a team may be improved from one year to the next we often look at what offseason additions they made. Did they get better there? We seldom look at improvements players already on the roster could make.

During a media session with reporters last Friday at the Warehouse, O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias discussed two important, and still young, players on his roster and their abilities to take a step forward in 2023. He was talking specifically about Ryan Mountcastle, whose .729 OPS last season was five percent over the American League average, and outfielder Austin Hays, whose .719 OPS was three percent above league average.

Both players got off to good starts that didn’t hold up in 2022. Mountcastle had an OPS of .786 in the first half and .659 in the second half. He hit just five homers total in July and August. Hays posted an OPS of .779 in the first half and .626 in the second half.

In Mountcastle’s case, his homer total dropped from 33 in 2021 – which was an Orioles rookie record – to 22 a season ago. His homer percentage dipped from 5.6 percent to 3.6.

But when it came to expected stats, a formula that uses a combination of exit velocity and launch angle, Mountcastle looked strong on the stat sheet.

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DL Hall excited to make his pitch for a rotation spot

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He is the pride of Valdosta, Ga., and now has his own Orioles-produced short film to prove that. He was the 21st overall player selected in the 2017 MLB Draft. He can throw a fastball 100 miles per hour and his name has been consistently on top 100 lists, most of them, since his draft day.

But Dayton Layne Hall, known better as DL, still has some doubters. It seems sometimes he actually prefers it that way. This kid is out to prove people wrong. It’s been that way for a long time.

If you feel he is a longshot to make the Orioles' opening day rotation, what with 12 or so candidates competing for those jobs, this kid, with his quiet confidence and intensity, is out to prove you wrong.

“Just to go out there and compete and earn a spot in the rotation,” he said of his approach to spring training this year. O’s reporters interviewed the 24-year-old lefty during Saturday’s Birdland Caravan. “Just (want to) continue to build off what I learned and did last year in the big leagues.

“I mean, the focus for me is to be a starter. I think I can be a big league starter. That’s what I am focused on and that’s what I’m going to do.”

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