Another look at Connor Norby's strong year as he makes another top 100

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The Orioles minor league home run leaders for 2022 were Connor Norby with 29 and Jordan Westburg with 27. No one else on the Baltimore farm hit more than 19.

Norby and Westburg battled down to the last game for that season homer honor. But during the year they showed similar approaches with a strong ability to drive the ball to right-center to produce a lot of their homers.

Now both are showing up on top 100 prospects list. In the latest one out yesterday, Norby got his third top 100 recognition. After coming in earlier at No. 82 via Baseball Prospectus and No. 93 via Baseball America, Norby was ranked No. 92 by ESPN.

A second baseman, Norby played at three levels last year, with 48 games at High-A Aberdeen, before playing 64 with Double-A Bowie and ending the year with nine games at Triple-A Norfolk, where he both homered on the first pitch he saw at that level and also hit two in his last two Tides games. He homered nine times in his last 25 games.

For the year, he batted .279/.360/.526/.886 over 121 games, adding 23 doubles, four triples, 92 runs and 16 steals to his home run total. Not bad for the Birds’ second-round pick (No. 41 overall) out of East Carolina in 2021. Among O’s on the farm with 250 or more plate appearances last year, Norby ranked second in OPS, behind only Gunnar Henderson’s .946. Pretty strong numbers for a player listed at 5-foot-10 and 187 pounds.

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Can Nomar Mazara earn a roster spot this spring with the Orioles?

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It could be a tough year for spring training non-roster players looking to break north with the Orioles for opening day 2023. And while the non-roster invitees list has not been announced yet, maybe a reserve lefty-hitter at first base has the best chance to make it among several NRI candidates.

But among those signed to minor league deals to try and make the club in the outfield, one interesting candidate is 27-year-old lefty hitter Nomar Mazara.

Interesting because he has a bit of a resume, even though the Orioles are his fifth team in five years following Texas, the Chicago White Sox, Detroit and San Diego. Once a top 100 rated prospect, Mazara has been a reserve corner outfielder the last two seasons for the Tigers and Padres.

Mazara was once a bonus baby, signed for a then record $4.95 million for an international amateur by the Texas Rangers in 2011 out of the Dominican Republic. He first made the majors at age 20 in April of 2016 and went on to finish fifth that year for the AL Rookie of the Year honor with a .739 OPS and 20 home runs.

On his way to the big leagues, Mazara was a Texas Rangers' top 30 prospect every year from 2012 through 2016. He was ranked in the top 100 at No. 87 by Baseball America in 2015. In 2016 he was No. 9 via ESPN and No. 21 by Baseball America when he was the Rangers' third-ranked prospect.

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Notes on another prospects list, O'Day hangs it up, and O's equipment and jerseys head south

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Now another outlet has been heard from. Keith Law released his top 100 prospects list on Monday via The Athletic and six Orioles populate his list. Where once that would have been a haul for the Orioles, six is actually the fewest number they have on any major list out thus far.

Gunnar Henderson, the No. 1 ranked prospect per Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com and Baseball Prospectus, is No. 2 via The Athletic. Arizona outfield prospect Corbin Carroll is ranked No. 1. Henderson was No. 73 on The Athletic top 100 before the 2022 season.

Click here to check out the list (subscription may be required).

Here is the rundown for the Orioles, who have had 10 players get mentioned on at least one of the four lists. I will list going left to right how players have been ranked by Baseball America/Baseball Prospectus/MLBPipeline.com/The Athletic.

* Gunnar Henderson ranked 1/1/1/2

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The next No. 1 prospect?: Shortstop Jackson Holliday is ready for first full pro year

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It doesn’t take long when interviewing young O’s shortstop prospect Jackson Holliday to realize this young man is mature beyond his years. He turned 19 on Dec. 4. He may look younger than 19 but he handles himself as an older, more experienced player might.

And to say the least the player the Orioles selected No. 1 overall in the 2022 draft is trending up. And trending up big.

The son of seven-time big league All-Star Matt Holliday, Jackson became the third No. 1 overall O’s MLB Draft pick joining Ben McDonald in 1989 and Adley Rutschman in 2019 last July.

Then he went out and in yes, a small sample of 20 pro games, lived up to the hype.

He hit .297/.489/.422/.911 with five doubles, a homer and nine RBIs. And a stunning walk rate which was 30.3 in the rookie-level Florida Complex League and 26.3 with low-A Delmarva. For the 20 games, he walked 25 times with just 12 strikeouts. He played his first FCL game on Aug. 10 and first for the Shorebirds on Aug. 25.

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History shows a strong farm often leads to MLB success

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When some fans around Birdland see the Orioles doing well on top 100 prospects lists, the obvious follow-up question is whether getting such big numbers will lead to major league wins.

If history is an indicator, not only could it lead to wins, but it could lead to a World Series championship.

There are no guarantees in sports, of course, but there is a history of a team reaching the No. 1 farm system ranking in the Baseball America listing and going on to big things.

The first year that the publication rated farm systems was 1984, and the New York Mets - with Dwight Gooden, Lenny Dykstra and Ron Darling - were No. 1. Two years later the Mets were World Series champions.

We could go back to when Toronto was the No. 1 farm in 1987 and 1988. Then in 1992 and 1993, the Blue Jays won two straight World Series titles.

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Cole Irvin addition another step to better overall pitch efficiency for the Orioles

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As the Orioles pitching staff made vast improvement last season – a team ERA of 3.97 after the club had ranked last the year before at 5.84 – there was an area of improvement that may have flown under the radar.

The staff as a whole was much more pitch-efficient in 2022. The O’s staff averaged 16.2 pitches per inning. That was tied for eighth fewest in the major leagues. They ranked last the year before, throwing 17.5 pitches per inning. The Los Angeles Dodgers (15.6) and Cleveland Guardians (15.7) topped the majors in this stat in 2022.

In adding southpaw Cole Irvin via a trade with Oakland, the Orioles get a pitcher who is among the best in the majors in this stat. He averaged 15.0 pitches per inning in 2021 and was even better last season at 14.4. That was second fewest in the American League last season. A pitcher with that average would need just 86 or 87 pitches to clear six innings.

And by the way, while Jordan Lyles led the club with 13 quality starts last year (and the team went 9-4 in those games), Kyle Gibson and Irvin each recorded 15 quality starts. They eat up some innings and provide some quality along the way.

During his Zoom interview with O’s media Friday morning, Irvin talked about how being so efficient with his pitches is a real plus.

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Lefty Cole Irvin talks about joining the Orioles

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New Orioles lefty pitcher Cole Irvin has quickly adjusted to the fact that he woke up yesterday an Oakland Athletic and ended the day a Baltimore Oriole. He said he enjoyed conversations Friday with manager Brandon Hyde and pitching coach Chris Holt. He’s excited to see what the O’s coaches can offer him.

And when Oakland played in Baltimore last September, he took note of the talent in the other dugout that was on its way to 83 wins.

“I’m excited,” Irvin said during a Zoom call with Baltimore media this morning. “The first thing that came to my mind when I got the call, when we faced Baltimore at the end of the season, is how many plays Gunnar Henderson made that series. That kid’s jersey was dirty by the end of the first inning, top to bottom.

“I’m excited. It’s a young group. It’s going to be a lot of fun, there is so much talent. Just the difference from ’21 to ’22 was a visible difference. Excited to kind of get involved with the organization a little more, get to know the fans. There is a lot to be excited about.”

The Orioles acquired Irvin and Single-A right-hander Kyle Virbitsky Friday for minor league shortstop Darell Hernaiz.

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O's add lefty starter, plus another top 100 prospects haul on Thursday

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The Orioles have the best farm system right now in Major League Baseball. This according to several outlets ranking them that way. And if one big standard in determining that is most prospects on a top 100 list, the Orioles last night matched their Baseball America performance by getting eight ranked on the latest MLBPipeline.com list.

Gunnar Henderson, still prospect-eligible and eligible for the American League Rookie of the Year award this season, was ranked No. 1 by both outlets, and by Baseball Prospectus as well recently.

MLBPipeline.com places three O’s in the top 12, four in the top 40 and eight among the top 99.

Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez is No. 7, Jackson Holliday No. 12 and Colton Cowser No. 40. Jordan Westburg comes in at No. 74, Heston Kjerstad at No. 80, DL Hall at No. 97 and Joey Ortiz at No. 99.

The list doesn’t even include Kyle Stowers, Coby Mayo or Connor Norby, who might well have merited consideration. The Orioles ended the 2022 season with six on the MLBPipeline.com top 100, and Henderson was No. 2 to end the season.

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A few notes on new O's lefty Cole Irvin (updated with new top 100 list)

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The Orioles had a surplus of quality minor league infield prospects and they were still seeking a pitcher to slot into their 2023 big league rotation, especially a lefty. Today those two added up to a deal where the Orioles acquired lefty starter Cole Irvin and Single-A right-hander Kyle Virbitsky from the Athletics in exchange for minor league shortstop Darell Hernaiz.

In the deal, the O’s gave up a top 30 prospect – Hernaiz was No. 16 via MLBPipeline.com – but they also acquired a pitcher that has averaged 180 innings the last two years with an ERA of 4.11. He has made 62 starts the last two seasons, but still has four years of team control remaining and will not even be arbitration eligible until after the coming 2023 season.

Here are a few more notes on the new O’s lefty after the deal was officially announced by the Orioles this afternoon:

* Irvin went 9-13 with a 3.93 ERA last year over 181 innings. He recorded strong numbers in WHIP (1.160) and walk rate (1.8) while making 15 quality starts. He produced 1.4 fWAR to rank second among A’s pitchers.

* An A’s beat writer tweeted today that Irvin was likely going to be Oakland’s opening day starting pitcher this year.

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A look at what Adam Frazier could add for the Orioles

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As infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier joins the Orioles this year after signing a one-year deal for $8 million in December, which player on offense will the club be getting? The player that was above average in 2021 when he was a National League All-Star, or the player that was below average last season?

Or maybe the stats meet somewhere in the middle.

In 2021, over 639 plate appearances between Pittsburgh and San Diego, Frazier hit .305/.368/.411/.779 with 36 doubles, five triples, five homers, 43 RBIs, 10 steals and 83 runs scored.

But over 602 plate appearances for Seattle, which made the postseason in 2022, the 31-year-old lefty hitter batted .238/.301/.311/.612 with 22 doubles, four triples, three homers, 42 RBIs, 11 steals and 61 runs.

Big difference in that Frazier’s OPS+ was 114 in 2021 and just 80, or 20 percent below league average, last season. Frazier has a career .728 OPS, which produces an OPS+ of 99, or just about at league average for his career.

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On O's hopes for Grayson Rodriguez to move from top prospect to top-of-rotation hurler

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Even for a pitcher who looked to be on the cusp of his major league debut, it was stunning stretch of pitching. During a season when top O’s pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez went 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA, he pitched even better in six starts leading up to when he got hurt.

When the 23-year-old right-hander took the mound at Triple-A Norfolk’s Harbor Park on June 1 versus Jacksonville, a call to Baltimore seemed almost at hand. I was writing at the time that, in my humble opinion, Rodriguez was very ready to debut with the Orioles.

That night he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings but then walked off the mound and didn’t return. We would later learn he had suffered a Grade 2 right lat strain. He would not pitch again on the farm for three months. On Sept. 1 he returned with a rehab outing for High-A Aberdeen.

In those last six outings at Triple-A, counting the night he got hurt, his ERA was 0.79. Over 34 1/3 innings he gave up three earned runs on 16 hits with nine walks and 47 strikeouts. In four of the games he threw scoreless outings.

It was a stunning stretch of pitching, even for one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Rodriguez is No. 6 on Baseball America’s new listing of the top 100 prospects. When he talked with reporters ahead of his game return in that Aberdeen outing, he noted that his pitching and stats were eye-popping in May for Norfolk.

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Will a unit that was a real strength in 2022 be that again for Birds?

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It was a real strength of the much-improved 2022 Orioles – the Baltimore bullpen. Will it be a team strength again this year? It will likely need to be for the Orioles to keeping trending upward toward an American League playoff berth.

In 2021, the O’s bullpen ERA of 5.70 ranked last in the majors. The final season bullpen ERA of 3.49 from last year ranked as seventh-best in the American League and ninth-best in MLB.

On Aug. 16, the Baltimore bullpen ERA of 3.05 was among the best in the majors. That would not hold up and there was some falloff late in the season. But the final mark was over two runs better than the previous season.  

That can help a team improve from 110 losses to 79.

Bullpen pitchers can be volatile in performance with much variation from year-to-year. Lefty Cionel Pérez, who pitched to an ERA of 1.40 averaging 3.3 walks per game with the Orioles, had an ERA of 6.04 and allowed 6.2 walks per nine innings over 50 2/3 innings in parts of season between 2018 and 2021.

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A look at how Joey Ortiz rose from struggling at Double-A to the top 100 list

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How does a player batting .206 with an OPS of .596 at the end of June last year at Double-A end up several months later ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 national prospects?

For Orioles shortstop prospect Joey Ortiz, it took a lot of hard work, a few swing adjustments and belief in self.

He went from a player that had left labrum surgery end his 2021 season in June to one struggling a year later on the farm. And then to one that was tearing up the sport in the last half of last year. His second half tear meant he would rise from No. 28 on Baseball America's O’s top 30 preseason last year to their No. 8 prospect at the end of the year, and now he’s top 100 at No. 95 on the list released last week.

When I talked to a pair of O’s minor league skippers about the club getting eight prospects ranked in Baseball America's top 100, it was clear that Ortiz’s rise may have meant the most to a few people in the Baltimore organization.

“I love this kid and can’t say enough good things about him,” said Double-A Bowie manager Kyle Moore. “He overcame the injury. That could have been it for him. He went through surgery and rehab just to get back to the field and have a chance in ’22 and he worked so hard and put himself in such a position to play with guys like Westy (Jordan Westburg) and Gunnar (Henderson). And then he breaks out. It almost makes you emotional. He was behind the eight ball a few times.”

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A good week for the farm and player development

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For a team looking to build an elite pipeline and support and grow its organization with quality home-grown talent, the last week or so have been good days for the Orioles.

It began a week ago today, when the club announced an international signing class of 27 players, headed up by 16-year-old shortstop Luis Ayden Almeyda. He got a $2.3 million signing bonus, the largest ever handed out by the Orioles to an international amateur. 

The O's class featured 13 players signing for $100,000 or more, and Koby Perez, the club's senior director of international scouting, told reporters the club has about $500,000 remaining from its pool allotment of $5,825,500. They could sign more players through Dec. 15. 

MLBPipeline.com, which ranked Almeyda as its No. 20 international prospect, gave him tool grades of 50 for hitting, running and fielding and 55 grades for power and arm. 

“I’m very excited and blessed,” Almeyda told MASNsports.com in his first one-on-one interview as an Oriole prospect. “I am ecstatic to start out with this organization and develop as a ballplayer and a man as well.

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Will O's hurlers smoothly adapt to the pitch clock?

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The 2023 Major League Baseball season will be unique in a few ways with some new rules coming to the majors for the first time. Such as the use of the pitch clock.

Will Orioles pitchers have any issues adjusting to the clock? We can’t know this answer yet, obviously, but I am going to guess any issues will be minimal.

Under the new rules, pitchers will have 15 seconds to pitch with no one on base and 20 seconds with a runner or runners on. The timer starts when the pitcher catches the return throw from the catcher, and to beat the clock the pitcher must start his motion before the clock runs out. The ball doesn't need to touch the plate before the clock expires, but the pitcher's motion must have started. Pitchers can step off the rubber and reset the clock, but this year can do that just twice per plate appearance.

MLB is trying, it seems, both to improve pace of play and improve time of game. In the minor league games using the clock last season, the average time of game was about 26 minutes shorter. Major league games moved past the three-hour mark on average in 2014. In 2021 big league games took an average of three hours, 10 minutes. The average last year was three hours and four minutes.

On Statcast they actually have a “pitch tempo” leaderboard. It tracks the amount of time from one pitch to the next for hurlers. Among the Orioles, when no one was on base, lefty Keegan Akin was the fastest worker with an average of 14.4 seconds between delivering pitches.

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O's minor league skippers talk about building the farm into a powerhouse

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The 2016 season was a good year for the Orioles. They won 89 games and they made the playoffs before one swing in the American League wild-card game ended their season in Toronto. But the calendar year began with the Baseball America release of its top 100 prospects list. There were no Orioles among the top 100. Zero.

The year before, only two were ranked, with Dylan Bundy at No. 48 and Hunter Harvey at No. 68. The year after, 2017, the O’s had just Chance Sisco on the list at No. 57.

So maybe now, looking back, that was insight into the mounting losses that were ahead for the club. But now things are vastly different on the Baltimore farm. The Orioles led all clubs, with eight players on the new Baseball America top 100 prospects list this week. Evaluators see others who could be on the list.

Three players in three years and eight in one year. The Orioles never before had more than five on this offseason Baseball America listing of the best young talent in the sport. Now they show the way.

What happened to make this so?

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Eight is enough: O's lead the way on the Baseball America top 100

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Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias has said the current O’s top 10 prospects list is about as deep as he’s ever seen. And this is a man that worked for talent-rich organizations in St. Louis and Houston. 

That is quite a statement and it was pretty much proven sound when eight of those 10 were ranked among the Baseball America top 100 prospects list released Wednesday. The magazine has been producing top 100 lists early every year since 1990, and until yesterday the Orioles had never had more than five players ranked in the initial list of the year.

It was great news for an organization that stated a clear intention of building an elite talent pipeline and one that is going to have to thrive using a lot of its homegrown talent. Right now the Orioles have the deepest prospect pool in baseball, and that was not news before yesterday. Numerous outlets have ranked their farm No. 1, even before yesterday.

But a haul of eight is indeed a haul. Cleveland had the second-most with seven, while the Dodgers, Mets and Rays had six each. The Orioles never had more than five on this initial list until now. 

The O’s began the 2022 season with five and ended it with six on the Baseball America ranking of their players this way: Gunnar Henderson (No. 1), Grayson Rodriguez (No. 4), Jackson Holliday (No. 38), DL Hall (No. 55), Colton Cowser (No. 88) and Jordan Westburg (No. 89).

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Orioles top all of MLB with eight ranked in the new Baseball America top 100

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It was a record-setting day for the Orioles with the release of the new Baseball America national top 100 prospects list today. Not only does Gunnar Henderson continue as the publication’s No. 1-ranked prospect, but the Orioles topped all of Major League Baseball with eight players ranked in the top 100, one more than Cleveland's seven and two more than the Dodgers, Mets and Rays, who had six each. 

This is the second year in a row in which Baseball America has ranked an Oriole as the top prospect in the sport. Adley Rutschman was No. 1 in the poll released last year. The publication has been producing top 100 lists since 1990, and the only other time the same organization had two different players at No. 1 in consecutive years was when the St. Louis Cardinals' J.D. Drew and Rick Ankiel topped the ratings in 1999 and 2000, respectively.

Also, no team had two players from the same draft ranked No. 1 in back-to-back years until today. The O’s selected Rutschman No. 1 overall in 2019 and Henderson was their second pick in that draft, at No. 42.

So Henderson, who was the 2022 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year also, is still No. 1. Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez is now No. 6 and the second-highest rated pitcher behind the Phillies' Andrew Painter at No. 5. Baseball America now ranks Jackson Holliday, the overall No. 1 pick by the Orioles in the 2022 draft, at No. 15. The Orioles also have Colton Cowser at No. 41, pitcher DL Hall No. 75, Jordan Westburg No. 76, Connor Norby No. 93 and Joey Ortiz at No. 95. Norby and Ortiz crack Baseball America's top 100 rankings for the first time this year.

With eight players ranked, the Orioles blew away their previous best in this initial pool release by Baseball America. We say initial as the last several years the publication has tweaked its poll throughout the season. In 2022, the Orioles ended the season with six in the top 100. But in the initial poll release of each year, the Orioles' best previous showings were five players ranked in 2008, 2021 and 2022.

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From minor league top 100s to O's rotation: Could happen for two this year

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We didn’t really need a reminder this week but we got one. The Orioles' Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall are two of the best pitching prospects in baseball. And during the 2023 season there could be times they pitch in the same Orioles rotation for the first time.

Rodriguez, the club’s top draft pick in 2018, is ranked as the club’s No. 2 prospect behind Gunnar Henderson, and No. 4 nationally in top 100s by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com. Hall, the club’s top pick in 2017, is ranked as the O’s No. 5 prospect by Baseball America and No. 55 in their latest top 100. Via MLBPipeline.com he is No. 6 on the team's top 30 and was No. 87 in the site's last top 100. Both outlets should be releasing new top 100 lists soon.

The reminder this week that Hall and Rodriguez are among the best pitching prospects in the sport came when MLBPipeline.com released its listing of the current 10 best right-handed and left-handed pitching prospects in the sport. Rodriguez got knocked off the top perch by the Phillies' Andrew Painter and is now the No. 2 right-hander. Hall came in at No. 4 among the lefties.

The drafting of Hall as their top pick in 2017 and Rodriguez as their top selection a year later represents the only time the Orioles have ever taken high school pitchers in back-to-back years with their highest pick. Some over the years question taking high school pitchers so high in the draft, so if the O’s get both in the same rotation, and if they have any success, they will be beating some odds in one sense.

Both Hall and Rodriguez reached 100 mph with their fastballs during the 2022 season. But beyond the sheer velocity, both also show plus offerings with sliders and changeups, and Rodriguez added a cutter last year. Right now they both have plus stuff in abundance and their potential is high.

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If the ABS system comes to Triple-A, could MLB be far behind?

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The automated balls and strikes system, known as ABS, is reportedly coming to all of Triple-A Baseball for the 2023 season. It is fair to assume this means the next stop could be the Major Leagues for the ABS system.

This is not necessarily a “robo-ump” system as some have called it and there will still be an umpire behind the plate on every pitch. But on pitches where a batter doesn’t swing, the ABS system and not the plate ump will determine whether the pitch was a ball or strike. My understand is the umpire wears an earpiece and gets the call. If it’s a strike he raises his arm as plate umpires have always done and a strike is called, although it would be the ABS system that determined that and not the ump.

The home plate umpire is still there to make those ABS calls known and also for checked swing calls and plays at the plate, etc.

According to this Jan. 12 story reported by ESPN (subscription may be required), the electronic strikezone will be used in all 30 Triple-A parks this season to include, of course Norfolk’s Harbor Park, the home of the Orioles’ Triple-A Norfolk Tides club. The report indicated half the Triple-A games will use the full ABS system for every pitch and half will use a challenge system that MLB also could implement one day. Under that system teams get three challenges a game, for pitchers and hitters. They can challenge a called pitch and ABS will determine ball or strike. If the challenging team is correct, they retain that challenge. If not, they lose it and are down to two remaining.

A twitter question I got raised an interesting point – will Harbor Park use the ABS system or the challenge system? Well, my understanding is it is likely all parks will use both, so all 30 Triple-A teams at home play about half the games with full ABS and half using the challenge system.

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