A look at how the 2023 Orioles could get off to a fast start

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The 2022 season may have seen the Orioles produce their first winning record since 2016. And it saw them lose fewer than 100 games in a full-season for the first time since 2017.

In the end there were 83 wins for the Orioles, and a winning percentage of .512. But it didn’t start all that well.

They were 0-3 after being swept to start the year in St. Petersburg, Fla. and 1-5 after two series. They were 3-8 after 11 games and 7-14 at the end of April. They were 21-30 when May ended and did not reach the .500 mark until getting to 44-44 on July 12.

But the group of Orioles heading to spring training this week has designs on playing well right from the jump this year and the schedule could play into those hopes.

The Orioles officially begin their 14th spring training in Sarasota, Fla. this week. Pitchers and catchers are due to report by Wednesday, but no doubt the camp is bustling already with players reporting early and the small group of prospects taking part in an early hitting camp.

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A few notes on the WBC that starts next month

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We are now a little over three weeks away from the start of the fifth World Baseball Classic. The now expanded to 20-nation tourney begins with four pools of five teams each playing games in Taiwan, Tokyo, Phoenix and Miami.

Team USA will play in Pool C at Chase Field in Phoenix along with Canada, Colombia, Mexico and Great Britain. The two top teams in each of the four pools advance to the quarterfinals and play is then single-elimination, one and done, from that point on. The semi-finals are March 19-20 in Miami with the championship game set for March 21.

Here are past winners:

2006 – Japan

2009 – Japan

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From farm to the majors, O's are making gains in plate discipline stats

Adley Rutschman Orange Holding bat

When it comes to scoring runs, the Orioles were slightly below American League average in 2022 – due in large part to a scoring drought late in the year.

The AL average for runs per game last season was 4.22 and the Orioles were at 4.16. They ranked 10th in the league in runs scored, up from 2021, when the Orioles were 14th.

And for much of last season they were about league average in runs, or just above. They were scoring 4.20 runs per game at the All-Star break and were at 4.24 per game at the end of August. But when they scored just 3.97 per game in the last month that brought the final season average down.

So there is progress to make here.

And yes, some of it, maybe much of it, can come from full seasons of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. They combined for 559 plate appearances last year and they could double that this coming season.

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After AFL MVP honor, Heston Kjerstad is ready for big league spring training shot

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Outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad is trending up, and he’s soaking in all of it. After all, he had to wait 27 months between his last game for the University of Arkansas and his first pro game, which he played June 10 for the Delmarva Shorebirds, the Orioles' Single-A affiliate.

In between the two, a pandemic ended his 2020 Arkansas season early. Then myocarditis kept him out of the 2021 season and a hamstring issue kept him off an opening day roster last year. Talk about a long wait to play. But the 23-year-old lefty hitter started to look like his old self late last year. He had a strong finish for High-A Aberdeen, carried that into the league playoffs and then was named MVP of the Arizona Fall League.

So it was easy to understand his emphatic answer when he was asked if he is limited at all physically as spring training is about to begin.

“No chance. I’m feeling good, feeling great,” Kjerstad said during last Saturday’s happy hour Birdland Caravan stop in Baltimore. “Luckily, got everything else behind me and just ready to focus on this season. Play a lot of baseball and, hopefully, work my way up.”

And for him it will start at major league spring training. He was one of the non-roster invitees to big league camp.

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Can a couple returning vets elevate their offense for the O's?

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When it comes to how much a team may be improved from one year to the next we often look at what offseason additions they made. Did they get better there? We seldom look at improvements players already on the roster could make.

During a media session with reporters last Friday at the Warehouse, O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias discussed two important, and still young, players on his roster and their abilities to take a step forward in 2023. He was talking specifically about Ryan Mountcastle, whose .729 OPS last season was five percent over the American League average, and outfielder Austin Hays, whose .719 OPS was three percent above league average.

Both players got off to good starts that didn’t hold up in 2022. Mountcastle had an OPS of .786 in the first half and .659 in the second half. He hit just five homers total in July and August. Hays posted an OPS of .779 in the first half and .626 in the second half.

In Mountcastle’s case, his homer total dropped from 33 in 2021 – which was an Orioles rookie record – to 22 a season ago. His homer percentage dipped from 5.6 percent to 3.6.

But when it came to expected stats, a formula that uses a combination of exit velocity and launch angle, Mountcastle looked strong on the stat sheet.

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DL Hall excited to make his pitch for a rotation spot

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He is the pride of Valdosta, Ga., and now has his own Orioles-produced short film to prove that. He was the 21st overall player selected in the 2017 MLB Draft. He can throw a fastball 100 miles per hour and his name has been consistently on top 100 lists, most of them, since his draft day.

But Dayton Layne Hall, known better as DL, still has some doubters. It seems sometimes he actually prefers it that way. This kid is out to prove people wrong. It’s been that way for a long time.

If you feel he is a longshot to make the Orioles' opening day rotation, what with 12 or so candidates competing for those jobs, this kid, with his quiet confidence and intensity, is out to prove you wrong.

“Just to go out there and compete and earn a spot in the rotation,” he said of his approach to spring training this year. O’s reporters interviewed the 24-year-old lefty during Saturday’s Birdland Caravan. “Just (want to) continue to build off what I learned and did last year in the big leagues.

“I mean, the focus for me is to be a starter. I think I can be a big league starter. That’s what I am focused on and that’s what I’m going to do.”

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Jackson Holliday heads to early camp to continue winter work with coaches

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It began yesterday and will run right up until the start of the Orioles major league spring training. Five of their top hitting prospects, none that have seen the majors just yet, will take part in an early hitting camp at Ed Smith Stadium.

It will run through Feb. 14 in Sarasota. It will allow the young talent to be seen by manager Brandon Hyde and some of the big league coaches and other instructors before the official report date for pitchers and catchers on Feb. 15.

The camp is not open to the public or media.

The players participating in the camp are outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad and infielders Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby. All five recently were ranked by at least one publication as a top 100 player and all five are also among the Orioles non-roster spring training invitees.

Among all O’s minor league batters in 2022 this group ranked well up there in final OPS numbers for the year, including players with a minimum of 200 plate appearances. Gunnar Henderson was first at .946 with Norby, who led the organization with 29 homers, next at .886. Cowser was fourth at .874 with Kjerstad seventh at .851 and Mayo 13th at .782.

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Adley Rutschman on trying to follow up his strong rookie year, plus other O's notes

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O’s catcher Adley Rutschman said the fans at Birdland Caravan this weekend brought “an energy and a buzz” that was great for the players to see. The fans might say the same about their catcher.

Rutschman’s 2022 season began with him on the injured list but ended with him on American League MVP lists. He finished 12th in voting for the MVP after finishing second for AL Rookie of Year.

It was a debut season where his 5.3 fWAR ranked third-best among rookie catchers in MLB history. Mike Piazza was first at 7.4 in 1993 and Carlton Fisk was at 6.6 in 1972. And then Adley. Keeping not good, but great company.

“I mean, it really worked out well,” he said of getting past the strained right triceps that kept him out of the majors until May 21. “I think I was put there for a reason and I went through what I went through for a reason. To be able to have the season I did and be able to see the team progress, the coaches and everyone come together, it was a special, special year.

“My goal is always to be the best version of myself – the best baseball player, the best human. There is always going to be room to improve. That’s the thing about baseball and life, you are always going to have things to improve on. So, in that offseason, work as hard as you can, and we’ll see how this year goes.”

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Rutschman on fans, Rodriguez on chasing roster spot during O's Birdland Caravan event

Adley Rutschman orange catching gear

It seemed that Birdland Caravan may have hit another gear on Saturday afternoon in downtown Baltimore. A packed crowd, some braving long lines in the frigid cold, greeted the Orioles at their happy hour event at Checkerspot Brewing Company.

It is not far from that spot, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, that those fans hope some of those players will lead the Orioles back to the playoffs as the countdown is on for the 2023 season.

Adley Rutschman, fresh off his second-place finish for American League Rookie of the Year and 12th-place finish for AL MVP, appreciated the passion he saw from the fans.

“Absolutely, the players feel that," he said. “It’s just a buzz. You know, and energy that you feel coming to events like this. You see the people are excited, and when you feel that kind of encouragement and support, it only helps everyone come together and continue to try and do great things.”

After a season when he batted .254/.362/.445 with 35 doubles and 13 homers, Rutschman produced 5.3 Wins Above Replacement, according to FanGraphs.com. That led the Orioles and tied for ninth among all AL hitters. And Rutschman played just 113 big league games. But he spent his offseason still looking for ways to improve his play.

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Chasing a playoff spot means dealing with much higher expectations for the Orioles

Brandon Hyde warmup

When asked yesterday about his Orioles having higher expectations for this season, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said his own words are one reason for that.

The Orioles take on the season ahead is not one to temper, but rather take on the expectations of a fan base expecting their team to make a run at the playoffs. After all, winning and playing in October is the obvious goal. And this team is ready to take on the challenge of both higher expectations and the fact that no one considers them a pushover anymore.

“Part of that is based on stuff I’ve been saying,” Elias said. “Because I’m excited about the future of the team and the fact that I believe that our rebuild is behind us and we’ve got an incredible chance now to be a very, very competitive team for years. I think we are all excited about that.

“So, the front office and the manager, when we talk to media, we feed those expectations. But we also live in the reality of our business. We approach things very carefully. We have a lot of smart and experienced people in our front office working on our plan. And that includes growing the team over the next few years, managing our payroll, trying to get into contracts that make sense for the long haul.

“So, we have to navigate all those factors too. And a team like the Orioles in particular has to be careful about. A lot goes into it. The bottom line is we want to win, and everything we’ve done since, going back to 2018, has been about getting us to that point. And we’re going to continue applying our know-how to take the next step.”

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Trying to sort out upcoming rotation battles in camp

Kyle Bradish throws gray

One thing the Orioles did in adding right-hander Kyle Gibson and lefty Cole Irvin this offseason is replace one innings-eater starting pitcher - Jordan Lyles - with two of them. We’ll see how they fare with the Orioles, but we can say it’s pretty clear the club would love to see those two take the ball about a total of 60 times combined in 2023.

If they do, and if they provide some quality innings and outings along the way, the Orioles will be well on their way to getting more starter innings this coming season. Their starting pitchers averaged 5.0 innings per start last year, ranking ahead of only three other American League clubs. Houston led the way, averaging 5.9 innings.

So there is room for improvement in that area.

With Lyles and his 32 starts and 4.42 ERA out of the rotation, the Orioles head to spring training in less than two weeks with six pitchers that made 20 or more big league starts in 2022. Here are the six, ranked by ERA:

3.23 – Dean Kremer (21 starts)

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Hyde and Elias take fan questions as Birdland Caravan kicks off at Bel Air High School

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BEL AIR, Md. – The 2023 Birdland Caravan is underway. Tonight, Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde answered fan questions and took part in some other fun activities with fans at Bel Air High School in Harford County.

Tomorrow, Birdland Caravan continues as O's players, coaches and staff meet and greet fans from around the state and region. It continues through Sunday.

A fan at Bel Air tonight asked Elias how the team will handle its strong prospect group now that the club has the playoffs in mind.

“We are in a mode now where we are really, really focused on winning and trying to increase our chances to get into the playoffs as much as possible," Elias said. "And it is going to start coming more at the expense of the player development side in the minor leagues. We just traded a prospect (Darrell Hernaiz) that we really liked for (A’s pitcher) Cole Irvin. So we’re starting to make those tradeoffs a lot more.”

The Orioles won 83 games last year, the most by any non-playoff American League club.

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The Orioles announce their spring training non-roster invitee list (updated)

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When the Orioles begin spring training workouts later this month in Florida, their initial spring training roster will number 70 players, and that could get larger with any additional signings or acquisitions.

The club today announced that they have invited 30 non-roster players to big league spring training in Sarasota at Ed Smith Stadium. The list includes one left-handed pitcher, 10 right-handed pitchers, four catchers, 10 infielders and five outfielders.

The list includes numerous players who were signed to minor league contracts. It also includes 2022 No. 1 overall draft pick Jackson Holliday and all 11 players recently named to at least one top 100 prospects list by a major outlet. Some of those players were already scheduled to go as part of the 40-man roster. 

PITCHERS (11)

RHP Eduard Bazardo
RHP Wandisson Charles
RHP Kyle Dowdy
RHP Reed Garrett
RHP Ofreidy Gómez
RHP Morgan McSweeney
LHP Cade Povich
RHP Kade Strowd
RHP Cole Uvila
RHP Chris Vallimont
RHP Ryan Watson

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Another look at Connor Norby's strong year as he makes another top 100

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The Orioles minor league home run leaders for 2022 were Connor Norby with 29 and Jordan Westburg with 27. No one else on the Baltimore farm hit more than 19.

Norby and Westburg battled down to the last game for that season homer honor. But during the year they showed similar approaches with a strong ability to drive the ball to right-center to produce a lot of their homers.

Now both are showing up on top 100 prospects list. In the latest one out yesterday, Norby got his third top 100 recognition. After coming in earlier at No. 82 via Baseball Prospectus and No. 93 via Baseball America, Norby was ranked No. 92 by ESPN.

A second baseman, Norby played at three levels last year, with 48 games at High-A Aberdeen, before playing 64 with Double-A Bowie and ending the year with nine games at Triple-A Norfolk, where he both homered on the first pitch he saw at that level and also hit two in his last two Tides games. He homered nine times in his last 25 games.

For the year, he batted .279/.360/.526/.886 over 121 games, adding 23 doubles, four triples, 92 runs and 16 steals to his home run total. Not bad for the Birds’ second-round pick (No. 41 overall) out of East Carolina in 2021. Among O’s on the farm with 250 or more plate appearances last year, Norby ranked second in OPS, behind only Gunnar Henderson’s .946. Pretty strong numbers for a player listed at 5-foot-10 and 187 pounds.

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Can Nomar Mazara earn a roster spot this spring with the Orioles?

Nomar Mazara Padres swing white

It could be a tough year for spring training non-roster players looking to break north with the Orioles for opening day 2023. And while the non-roster invitees list has not been announced yet, maybe a reserve lefty-hitter at first base has the best chance to make it among several NRI candidates.

But among those signed to minor league deals to try and make the club in the outfield, one interesting candidate is 27-year-old lefty hitter Nomar Mazara.

Interesting because he has a bit of a resume, even though the Orioles are his fifth team in five years following Texas, the Chicago White Sox, Detroit and San Diego. Once a top 100 rated prospect, Mazara has been a reserve corner outfielder the last two seasons for the Tigers and Padres.

Mazara was once a bonus baby, signed for a then record $4.95 million for an international amateur by the Texas Rangers in 2011 out of the Dominican Republic. He first made the majors at age 20 in April of 2016 and went on to finish fifth that year for the AL Rookie of the Year honor with a .739 OPS and 20 home runs.

On his way to the big leagues, Mazara was a Texas Rangers' top 30 prospect every year from 2012 through 2016. He was ranked in the top 100 at No. 87 by Baseball America in 2015. In 2016 he was No. 9 via ESPN and No. 21 by Baseball America when he was the Rangers' third-ranked prospect.

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Notes on another prospects list, O'Day hangs it up, and O's equipment and jerseys head south

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Now another outlet has been heard from. Keith Law released his top 100 prospects list on Monday via The Athletic and six Orioles populate his list. Where once that would have been a haul for the Orioles, six is actually the fewest number they have on any major list out thus far.

Gunnar Henderson, the No. 1 ranked prospect per Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com and Baseball Prospectus, is No. 2 via The Athletic. Arizona outfield prospect Corbin Carroll is ranked No. 1. Henderson was No. 73 on The Athletic top 100 before the 2022 season.

Click here to check out the list (subscription may be required).

Here is the rundown for the Orioles, who have had 10 players get mentioned on at least one of the four lists. I will list going left to right how players have been ranked by Baseball America/Baseball Prospectus/MLBPipeline.com/The Athletic.

* Gunnar Henderson ranked 1/1/1/2

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The next No. 1 prospect?: Shortstop Jackson Holliday is ready for first full pro year

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It doesn’t take long when interviewing young O’s shortstop prospect Jackson Holliday to realize this young man is mature beyond his years. He turned 19 on Dec. 4. He may look younger than 19 but he handles himself as an older, more experienced player might.

And to say the least the player the Orioles selected No. 1 overall in the 2022 draft is trending up. And trending up big.

The son of seven-time big league All-Star Matt Holliday, Jackson became the third No. 1 overall O’s MLB Draft pick joining Ben McDonald in 1989 and Adley Rutschman in 2019 last July.

Then he went out and in yes, a small sample of 20 pro games, lived up to the hype.

He hit .297/.489/.422/.911 with five doubles, a homer and nine RBIs. And a stunning walk rate which was 30.3 in the rookie-level Florida Complex League and 26.3 with low-A Delmarva. For the 20 games, he walked 25 times with just 12 strikeouts. He played his first FCL game on Aug. 10 and first for the Shorebirds on Aug. 25.

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History shows a strong farm often leads to MLB success

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When some fans around Birdland see the Orioles doing well on top 100 prospects lists, the obvious follow-up question is whether getting such big numbers will lead to major league wins.

If history is an indicator, not only could it lead to wins, but it could lead to a World Series championship.

There are no guarantees in sports, of course, but there is a history of a team reaching the No. 1 farm system ranking in the Baseball America listing and going on to big things.

The first year that the publication rated farm systems was 1984, and the New York Mets - with Dwight Gooden, Lenny Dykstra and Ron Darling - were No. 1. Two years later the Mets were World Series champions.

We could go back to when Toronto was the No. 1 farm in 1987 and 1988. Then in 1992 and 1993, the Blue Jays won two straight World Series titles.

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Cole Irvin addition another step to better overall pitch efficiency for the Orioles

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As the Orioles pitching staff made vast improvement last season – a team ERA of 3.97 after the club had ranked last the year before at 5.84 – there was an area of improvement that may have flown under the radar.

The staff as a whole was much more pitch-efficient in 2022. The O’s staff averaged 16.2 pitches per inning. That was tied for eighth fewest in the major leagues. They ranked last the year before, throwing 17.5 pitches per inning. The Los Angeles Dodgers (15.6) and Cleveland Guardians (15.7) topped the majors in this stat in 2022.

In adding southpaw Cole Irvin via a trade with Oakland, the Orioles get a pitcher who is among the best in the majors in this stat. He averaged 15.0 pitches per inning in 2021 and was even better last season at 14.4. That was second fewest in the American League last season. A pitcher with that average would need just 86 or 87 pitches to clear six innings.

And by the way, while Jordan Lyles led the club with 13 quality starts last year (and the team went 9-4 in those games), Kyle Gibson and Irvin each recorded 15 quality starts. They eat up some innings and provide some quality along the way.

During his Zoom interview with O’s media Friday morning, Irvin talked about how being so efficient with his pitches is a real plus.

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Lefty Cole Irvin talks about joining the Orioles

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New Orioles lefty pitcher Cole Irvin has quickly adjusted to the fact that he woke up yesterday an Oakland Athletic and ended the day a Baltimore Oriole. He said he enjoyed conversations Friday with manager Brandon Hyde and pitching coach Chris Holt. He’s excited to see what the O’s coaches can offer him.

And when Oakland played in Baltimore last September, he took note of the talent in the other dugout that was on its way to 83 wins.

“I’m excited,” Irvin said during a Zoom call with Baltimore media this morning. “The first thing that came to my mind when I got the call, when we faced Baltimore at the end of the season, is how many plays Gunnar Henderson made that series. That kid’s jersey was dirty by the end of the first inning, top to bottom.

“I’m excited. It’s a young group. It’s going to be a lot of fun, there is so much talent. Just the difference from ’21 to ’22 was a visible difference. Excited to kind of get involved with the organization a little more, get to know the fans. There is a lot to be excited about.”

The Orioles acquired Irvin and Single-A right-hander Kyle Virbitsky Friday for minor league shortstop Darell Hernaiz.

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