Steve Melewski
Steve Melewski

A look at the debate over qualifying offers

A look at the debate over qualifying offers
The qualifying offer is sure to come up during labor negotiations this year as the players and owners work on a new collective bargaining agreement. Some believe the system is broken, but I do not agree. This year, teams extended 20 players qualifying offers, which meant those players could re-sign with their club and take the one year offer for $15.8 million or go on to test the free agent market. The catch for players that turn down a qualifying offer is that a team signing them now loses a...
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Steve Melewski

More predictions of a poor season for the Orioles, plus other notes

More predictions of a poor season for the Orioles, plus other notes
We should certainly not be surprised anymore. But when some analysts released their lists of Major League Baseball power rankings for the 2016 season, they don't see the Orioles as very powerful. The latest publication to predict a poor season for the Orioles is Sports Illustrated. In his first MLB power ranking of the 2016 season for SI.com, Jonah Keri has the Orioles rated No. 23 out of 30 teams. As for the rest of the American League East, the prediction is No. 8 for Boston, No. 9 for...
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Steve Melewski

This is not your father's American League East

This is not your father's American League East
As any fan of the Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays or Tampa Bay Rays could tell you, and perhaps even say with some level of pride, the American League East is no longer a two-team race. Once the domain of the big spending Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, the AL East has produced four different division champions the past four seasons. Over the last six seasons - since 2010 - all five AL East teams have won the division title. If you look at the composite AL East standings since 2012, New York is...
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Steve Melewski

Trey Mancini on a career turning point, his power increase and more

Trey Mancini on a career turning point, his power increase and more
Trey Mancini, the Orioles' 2015 minor league Player of the Year, has been a solid hitter since the day the Orioles drafted him in round eight of the 2013 draft. Mancini hit .328 that first pro season in 2013, earning team MVP honors for short-season Single-A Aberdeen. Since then, he has also hit .300 or better at Single-A Delmarva, Single-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. But it was when his power increased, joining his solid bat for average, that he took his game to another level last year. A...
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Steve Melewski

A take on the statement from Casey Close and a possible in-house right field candidate

A take on the statement from Casey Close and a possible in-house right field candidate
We probably won't get any answers from outfielder Dexter Fowler or agent Casey Close of Excel Sports Management on these questions, but we can still wonder about some of them. * If Fowler and Close sought an opt-out clause, why were they negotiating with one team that has said it will not provide one? In his statement last night, Close said, "Both the Orioles front office and members of the media were so busy recklessly spreading rumors that they forgot or simply chose not to concern...
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Steve Melewski

A take on the Orioles' restructured deal with pitcher Yovani Gallardo

A take on the Orioles' restructured deal with pitcher Yovani Gallardo
While the deals are not officially completed, it sure looks like this time we can safely say the Orioles have indeed added a starting pitcher and outfielder. For the second night in a row, MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko was the first to report an agreement. This time he reported it is a two-year deal with a team option for a third season with pitcher Yovani Gallardo after last night's three-year agreement with outfielder Dexter Fowler. Whatever the Orioles' concerns were or are about...
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Steve Melewski

Trying to build a good team and then keep it together

Trying to build a good team and then keep it together
At a time when players come and go - and major league rosters change, sometimes almost daily - the Orioles may now be developing a situation where their roster will feature stability. At least for a few years. Let's look at the eight players that could be on the field with the pitcher on opening day and include outfielder Dexter Fowler. Except for catcher Matt Wieters, who can be a free agent after 2016, the other seven all will be under team control for at least two more years. Five of those...
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Steve Melewski

Another look at Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler

Another look at Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler
Maybe today we find out if Yovani Gallardo will be in the Orioles rotation or not. Just when fans were getting used to the thought of the right-hander being about to join the team came the news of additional medical tests taking place. The physical is not complete, the signing is not final. The Orioles did get one of the two players they have been pursuing last night when they agreed to a three-year deal with outfielder Dexter Fowler. Meanwhile, over the last few days, several fans have...
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Steve Melewski

A look at the Orioles' addition of Dexter Fowler

A look at the Orioles' addition of Dexter Fowler
As one deal potentially may be falling apart, another came together. Tonight, for what look to be the same terms offered to free agent pitcher Yovani Gallardo, the Orioles added free agent outfielder Dexter Fowler. They've agreed to terms with Fowler on a three-year deal worth $35 million, according to reports first from MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko and then from ESPN. Last year for the Chicago Cubs, Fowler hit .250/.346/.411 with 29 doubles, eight triples, 17 homers (a career high), 46...
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Steve Melewski

Catching up with Joe Mahoney (plus a look at free agent spending)

Catching up with Joe Mahoney (plus a look at free agent spending)
Before Trey Mancini and Christian Walker were Orioles first base prospects, there was another young lefty-hitting slugger working his way toward Baltimore. Drafted in round six in 2007, his path to the bigs included a 2010 season that ended with his winning the Brooks Robinson Award as the O's minor league Player of the Year. Joe Mahoney did make it to the major leagues - with both the Orioles and Marlins - but his big league career consisted of just 33 at-bats. His last season was 2013 and...
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Steve Melewski

None left: O's rotation will be without a southpaw

None left: O's rotation will be without a southpaw
Will having an all right-handed rotation be a problem for the Orioles? Last year, right-handers made 131 of 162 O's starts. Wei-Yin Chen's 31 starts were the only by any left-hander. Will they go 162-for-162 this year? When the Orioles officially add Yovani Gallardo, he will join holdovers Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman and Ubaldo Jimenez. No lefty anywhere. But there are some reasons to think it will not be an issue. For one, the other four American League East teams last year...
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Steve Melewski

The Gallardo agreement: Its impact on draft picks and other notes

The Gallardo agreement: Its impact on draft picks and other notes
If the Orioles wind up losing their top two draft picks for the second time in three years, they could wind up in better shape this time. The O's will lose their No. 14 pick when the team's agreement with pitcher Yovani Gallardo becomes official. They could lose a second pick if they sign outfielder Dexter Fowler, who they are pursuing. They parted with two picks to sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz before the 2014 season. In the following draft that June, the Orioles' first selection was...
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Steve Melewski

A few notes on the Orioles' agreement with pitcher Yovani Gallardo

A few notes on the Orioles' agreement with pitcher Yovani Gallardo
So it is done and this time it seems pretty final, if not yet official. The Orioles have agreed to sign free agent pitcher Yovani Gallardo to a three-year deal worth $35 million with an option for a fourth year. A $35 million deal will bring the Orioles' free agent spending this offseason to a total of $249.8 million. They previously re-signed Chris Davis to a seven-year deal worth $161 million. They re-signed Darren O'Day to a four-year deal worth $31 million. They re-signed Matt Wieters to...
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Steve Melewski

When it comes to starting pitchers, do some teams prefer quantity over quality?

When it comes to starting pitchers, do some teams prefer quantity over quality?
When it comes to starting pitchers, is more now better? Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci wrote about this recently in a season preview column. He sees a trend developing in the sport where there seem to be fewer workhorse pitchers. With fewer pitchers that can give you a lot of innings, teams are using more starting pitchers to cover those innings than ever before. "Teams now want to divide the work among more and more arms," Verducci writes. "Only 78 pitchers last season worked enough to...
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Steve Melewski

A look at the Orioles' minor league early camp roster

A look at the Orioles' minor league early camp roster
About nine days before Orioles minor league pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to spring training, a group of 37 players will report for an early camp in Sarasota, Fla. The list includes 18 pitchers, four catchers, nine infielders and six outfielders. They'll report to the O's Twin Lakes complex starting next Tuesday, Feb. 23. This will give this group of players an earlier start to their season and some of these players could be used by the Orioles in early exhibition games that...
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Steve Melewski

MLB Network analysts debate the Chris Davis contract; Brian Graham talks Bundy, Harvey

MLB Network analysts debate the Chris Davis contract; Brian Graham talks Bundy, Harvey
When the Orioles officially re-signed slugger Chris Davis to a seven-year deal worth $161 million, many fans were excited that the club was able to retain the power-hitting first baseman. He leads the majors in homers since 2012 and was the major league homer leader in both 2013 and 2015. But not all analysts saw the signing as a good one for the Orioles. Yesterday, the Davis contract was one topic debated on MLB Network's "MLB Now" show. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com was a guest. In his...
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Steve Melewski

As spring training begins, five questions about the 2016 season

As spring training begins, five questions about the 2016 season
Orioles pitchers and catchers officially report to Ed Smith Stadium today. Spring training is set to begin. Opening day is April 4. That seems a long time away, but it will be here before we know it. As a new season begins, five teams are chasing the American League East championship. It is a title won by four different teams the last four years. The Yankees were first with 95 wins in 2012. Then the Red Sox won with 97 victories, followed by the Orioles with 96 and the Blue Jays with 93 last...
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Steve Melewski

A look at some inaccurate PECOTA projections for the Orioles, plus other notes

A look at some inaccurate PECOTA projections for the Orioles, plus other notes
When Baseball Prospectus released its latest PECOTA projections for the 2016 season, it basically predicted a strong race in the American League East this year - but not one that will include the Orioles. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA: * Major league equivalencies, to allow the...
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Steve Melewski

Are projections for tight AL East race more reason to pursue Gallardo, Fowler?

Are projections for tight AL East race more reason to pursue Gallardo, Fowler?
There has been plenty of debate as to whether the Orioles should or should not sign pitcher Yovani Gallardo and/or outfielder Dexter Fowler. One big reason in favor of doing so for me is that they could push the Orioles over the hump in the American League East. Right now, the division looks very even and open from top to bottom. You could rank teams in almost any order and who could argue? If you see the Orioles in last place with 78 wins, you have some justification to say so. You see them as...
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Steve Melewski

The scoop on Schoop: He could be headed for stardom

The scoop on Schoop: He could be headed for stardom
Is second baseman Jonathan Schoop an emerging star for the Orioles? Schoop, who turned 24 on Oct. 16, had 455 at-bats in 2014 and just 305 last year. But after the big improvement he made last season, you would have to be encouraged by the numbers Schoop may be able to put up with 600 at-bats over a full season. First, here is a look at how Schoop improved last year: Schoop in 2014: .209 average, .244 OBP, .354 slugging, .598 OPS, 65 OPS+ Schoop in 2015: .279 average, .306 OBP, .482 slugging,...
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