Projection models split on Nationals and Mets in NL East

As equipment trucks (not to mention a handful of early-arriving players) across America make their way to Arizona and Florida, anticipation for the 2017 baseball season perks up. As do season projections by various stat-based sites.

FanGraphs.com and Baseball Prospectus have both published their 2017 projections. They do not, however, agree on the identity of the top dog in the National League East division.

FanGraphs likes the Nationals, projecting 90 wins and a plus-86 run differential for the defending division champs. They've got the Mets well behind at 84 wins and a plus-26 run differential. The Marlins (79 wins), Braves (74) and Phillies (71) bring up the rear.

Baseball Prospectus, on the other hand, likes the Mets to win 88 games with a +67 run differential. The Nationals are right behind them with 87 wins and a +59 run differential. The Marlins (77 wins), Braves (76) and Phillies (74) again bring up the rear in a familiar order.

So what to make of this? First of all, it means nothing. Last year, Baseball Prospectus picked the Mets to win 91 games and the Nationals 90. FanGraphs had the Mets winning 88 and the Nats 87, identical to Baseball Prospectus' prediction this year. (The Nats, of course, actually won 95 and the division, while the Mets won 87 and the wild card.)

But it's interesting nonetheless to get a very early sense how the NL East's top two rivals appear to stack up with each other.

How do they stack up? They're pretty evenly matched. The Mets haven't made any significant additions over the winter, but they were able to re-sign slugger Yoenis Cespedes and relievers Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas. They'll return basically their entire roster from 2016, though there are some notable risks involved in that plan.

New York's roster was decimated by injuries last season. At least a little better fortune in that regard has to be assumed, but this is a team that still will be relying on the likes of Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler and David Wright. It may be too much to ask for all of those players to avoid the disabled list in 2017.

The Nationals have their own injury concerns, most notably Stephen Strasburg (who by all accounts is healthy but was last season walking off the mound with what everyone assumed was a major elbow injury). They're also counting on veterans Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth to both stay healthy and be productive at the plate, which is no sure thing.

And then there's that little bullpen issue. Who honestly knows how that will shake out?

We won't know how the entire division race will shake out for another eight months. Maybe one of the three rebuilding clubs will make a legitimate move to get into the fray. Maybe not.

But all things being equal, this should be a competitive race between the Nationals and Mets. And that may not be such a bad thing.

I've mentioned this before but it's worth repeating: Despite being contenders for five seasons now, the Nats still have not been in a true pennant race. When they've won the division, they've done so in comfortable fashion. When they've lost it, they've trailed by too much margin to make things interesting. They've yet to play the kind of do-or-die games so many other contenders have to play over the final two weeks of September.

Maybe it would be good for them to have to do that at long last. Maybe it would keep the competitive juices flowing and put them in a stronger position once (or if) they make the postseason, rather than trying to ratchet up the intensity level after coasting through the finish line.

Anyway, there's a long way to go until that becomes an actual topic of discussion. For now, just enjoy the fact baseball season is approaching soon enough to warrant projected standings.