Qualifying offers and Rule 5 protection highlight today's activities

A week of key dates brings us later today to players accepting or declining the $21.05 million qualifying offer. Decisions must be made by 4 p.m.

This one is easy to predict.

Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander are expected to decline it and dive into free agency. They have rich long-term deals waiting for them. They aren’t settling for anything less.

Burnes is the top starter on the market and the Orioles are keeping the door open for a return. Santander is coming off a 44-homer season and will attract plenty of suitors. His value has never been higher.

The Orioles will receive a draft pick if Burnes and Santander sign with other clubs. That’s why you make the qualifying offer, which only applied to players who haven’t received one in the past and spent the entire season with the team. No deadline additions.

Players also must be protected from the Rule 5 draft this evening, and the Orioles have three openings on their 40-man roster.

The Rule 5 draft is Dec. 11 at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The Oriole passed in the major league phase last year, an unusual development given their history. A streak ended that began in 2006. Santander was chosen in 2016 and Tyler Wells in 2021.

The Orioles no longer get a high pick. They waited until the 29^th last year, and executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias indicated that the Orioles would be bystanders until the Triple-A phase.

“It’s probably a lot less likely than ever,” Elias said. “We’ve got a really good roster, so that’s a big part of it. It’s also a Rule 5 class that is less populated than usual because the 2020 draft was only five rounds. The odds are that we don’t. My impression from our conversations thus far is that we may have a player or two, if they’re still left we’d consider it.”

The Rule 5 draft has morphed into being more about playing defense, shielding prospects from it. And the top candidate this year is right-hander Brandon Young, the organization’s top minor league pitcher in 2024. He received the Jim Palmer Award and a lot of security.

Young, 26, had a combined 3.57 ERA in 27 games between Triple-A Norfolk and Double-A Bowie, and he struck out 132 batters in 111 innings. Elias brought up Young’s name to the media during an Aug. 10 dugout scrum, referring to the former Louisiana-Lafayette pitcher as being “on the radar screen.”

“I thought this was really cool,” Young said in September. “I think I am close. I think it’s cool that he said that.”

MLB Pipeline ranks Young as the No. 19 prospect in the system. It’s a nice success story given how Young signed with the Orioles as a free agent after teams passed on him in the five-round 2020 draft. And how he underwent two Tommy John surgeries, the last in 2022.

My hesitancy to classify players or events as locks is growing, but I’ll put Young in that category today.

Right-hander Alex Pham, the No. 25 prospect, might be No. 2 on the protection list. The former 19^th-round draft pick in 2021 out of the University of San Francisco, made 27 starts with Double-A Bowie and posted a 4.24 ERA with 138 strikeouts in 119 innings.

The Orioles already protected left-handed reliever Luis González.

Juan Nuñez is the No. 8 prospect in the system but he hasn’t pitched above Class A. A team selecting Nuñez would need to keep him on the roster or offer him back. The Orioles probably trust that he won’t stick if he’s taken, but it’s always a gamble.

A little less of one, however, with Nuñez appearing in only seven games with Aberdeen and being shut down in May due to a shoulder injury. He had a 2.45 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings.

Elias really worked some magic at the 2022 deadline to get Nuñez, Yenner Cano, Cade Povich and Juan Rojas from the Twins for Jorge López and cash. This wasn’t a popular trade among fans, but it’s so one-sided now that it could flip on its side.

* Former Orioles outfielder Austin Slater has agreed to a major league deal with the White Sox.

The Orioles made a deadline trade with the Reds, acquiring Slater and infielder Liván Soto for cash considerations. He batted .246/.342/.333 in 33 games and was included on the Wild Card roster.

A right-handed hitting outfielder is a top priority during the offseason.

* Former Orioles center fielder Adam Jones is among 14 newcomers to the Hall of Fame ballot.

Jones joins Carlos González, Curtis Granderson, Félix Hernández, Ian Kinsler, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramírez, Fernando Rodney, CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Troy Tulowitzki and Ben Zobrist.

Candidates remain on the ballot for 10 years if they’re named on at least five percent.  

Closer Billy Wagner appears on the ballot for the last time after receiving 73.8 percent of the votes for 2024. Seventy-five percent is required for induction into Cooperstown.