Ryan Romano: What's missing in Britton's dominating campaign?

Even though Orioles fans get to watch him take the hill constantly, sometimes I think we still don't truly appreciate how great Zach Britton is. The organization developed him as a starting pitcher, but after flopping in that role, he looked like another bust. Nowadays, he never starts anything - he just finishes things. Since his move to the bullpen in 2014, he's put up an ERA of 1.45, which trails only Wade Davis among qualified relievers. Now that he leads the majors in 2016 ERA at 0.63, his name has come up in Cy Young discussions, and he seems to have a legitimate shot at winning the award.

Yet among all of this, one peculiar development - and potential red flag - arises. It hasn't really harmed Britton to this point, but his recent decision to avoid the strike zone brings with it some new risks. In 2016, he's thrown a mere 39.4 percent of his pitches within the strike zone's confines. That's the fourth-lowest mark in baseball, trailing only Jared Hughes, Brad Ziegler and Marc Rzepczynski. Generally, a pitcher who doesn't throw the ball over the plate will struggle; obviously, this hasn't been the case for Britton.

Why has Britton taken this route, after posting a 44.4 percent zone rate in 2015? The issue certainly isn't command. Anyone who's witnessed a Britton outing knows that he can hit any spot at will with his sinker. Rather, Britton seems to have made a conscious decision to move outside the zone. He knows his sinker's devastating break can dupe hitters into chasing, and it's done exactly that in 2016. Britton has forced opponents to swing at 39.0 percent of his pitches outside the strike zone, the ninth-highest clip among qualified relievers. They don't make very much contact on those swings, either - he has a 24.1 percent whiff rate outside the zone, compared to an 8.7 percent whiff rate inside it. And when they manage to put those pitches in play, hitters usually won't hit it too hard, as his 31.1 percent soft contact rate (second-highest in the majors) and 15.6 percent hard-hit rate (lowest in the majors) reflect.

So what's the problem with this strategy? For one, even with a chase rate that high, Britton won't throw many strikes. After notching a strike for 68.9 percent of his pitches in 2015, he's done so just 63.2 percent of the time in 2016. This has hurt his walk rate, which has jumped from a superb 5.5 percent to a more pedestrian 8.3 percent. His strikeout rate has also fallen a bit, from 31.2 percent to 29.5 percent; that's unsurprising, since strike rate correlates to that. His defense-independent outcomes are still phenomenal, but they've become significantly less so, thanks to his avoidance of the strike zone.

Moreover, hitters didn't really square him up last year: Among qualified relievers, he had the highest soft-hit rate and the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate. Even though his BABIP was an unsightly .308, bad luck - as opposed to a deficiency on his part - accounted for that. In 2015, he had a ton of strikeouts, no walks, and weak contact galore. This season, he's made some sacrifices on the former two, but the gains on the latter haven't made up the difference.

Consider the case of another talented lefty: former Pirate and current Blue Jay Francisco Liriano. FanGraphs' August Fagerstrom broke down Liriano's pitching formula in the offseason. He'd throw a ton of pitches outside the strike zone, which hitters would chase, whiff at and/or fail to make solid contact on. That approach gave him a 3.26 ERA from 2013 to 2015. But in 2016, hitters have ... well, they've stopped swinging. Their patience has caused Liriano to melt down across the board -- he's given out a ton of walks, his hard-hit rate has exploded, and as a result, his ERA has spiked to 5.27.

Because of his elite groundball tendencies, Britton most likely doesn't need to worry about a Liriano-esque meltdown. With that sinker at his side, he can always turn a double play when he needs it. Still, when you live on the edge like this, you run the risk of getting burned. What happens if hitters just step in against him and keep the bat on their shoulders? How many runners will reach base - and how many runs will cross the plate - before he starts to pound the zone again? While he remains an ace reliever, a dropoff isn't difficult to imagine.

Ryan Romano blogs about the Orioles for Camden Depot. Follow the blog on Twitter: @CamdenDepot. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.