Taking stock of the current Baltimore rotation

Sure the Orioles, like most teams that don’t have one, could use an ace pitcher. They still hope to add one before the start of the 2025 season. 

But their current rotation has the makings of being a good one.

Here is how it looks today:

Zach Eflin: He is the probable Opening Day starter. After the trade to the Orioles, over nine starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Only nine pitchers, including the Orioles' Corbin Burnes, that qualified, posted season-long ERAs under 3.00. To do it even for nine starts was impressive.

Eflin finished sixth for the 2023 American League Cy Young Award and has been among the best pitchers in the American League. Over the last two years, while Burnes posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP, Eflin was at 3.54 and 1.085.

He remains among the best control pitchers in baseball. With both Tampa Bay and Baltimore he averaged 1.2 walks per every nine innings over 165 1/3, to rank in the top two percent in the majors.

Grayson Rodriguez: He was scratched from a start Aug. 6 at Rogers Centre and never pitched again last season. He's expected to return fully healthy, which will be big for the rotation. In 20 starts, he was 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA over 116 2/3 innings.

The O’s top pick in the 2018 MLB Draft is turning into a top-echelon starter in front of our eyes. Since he was sent to the minors in the first half of the 2023 season with 7.35 ERA, he has made 33 starts and the numbers are good. In those 33, he is 18-6 with a 3.35 ERA over 193 1/3 innings. It’s not a stretch to say he could make 32 or 33 starts this season and post those numbers.

Dean Kremer: Kremer, who turns 29 on Jan. 7, has ERAs of 4.12 and 4.10 the last two seasons. The Orioles would love to see him find a higher gear. After the O’s went 24-8 in his 2023 games, they were 10-14 last year.

On the plus side, he allows just a .503 OPS the first time through the batting order. That increases to .769 the second time and .794 the third time through. Are there adjustments he can make for better success as the game goes on?

Tomoyuki Sugano: The Japanese-born right-hander had excellent stats in Nippon Professional Baseball, going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 156 2/3 innings for the Yomiuri Giants and was named Central League MVP.

He led NPB in wins and his ERA was second. His walk percentage was 2.6 and he averaged a stunningly low 0.9 walks per nine innings.

Now we find out how those stats translate to the major leagues. If they are even close to what he did in Japan, his one-year addition could prove huge as the O’s try to get back on top of the AL East.

The potential order today looks like Eflin, Rodriguez, Kremer and Sugano, but Sugano could move into that third slot. Another question is how the O’s will use him, as most NPB pitchers throw just once per week. Is a partial or full-year use of a six-man rotation a consideration?

The depth that is the rest: The O’s have some depth building here and some choices for the fifth and - if they use one - sixth spots.

Big Albert Suarez had a 3.70 ERA and made 24 starts for the Orioles. In those 24 games, the Orioles went 13-11 as Suarez posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.328 WHIP. The O’s might prefer to keep him in the bullpen, but he surely could get more starts as well if needed.

Lefty Cade Povich had a 5.20 ERA in 16 starts. But it was his September finish, when every game was vital, that opened some eyes. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five starts the last month, pitching to a 2.60 ERA, allowing a .162 batting average and .558 OPS. Some may not have noticed, but he got better. 

Lefty Trevor Rogers told me this winter his work at Driveline Baseball in Phoenix this offseason is designed to improve what they found was his sub-par lower body strength. He thinks improvements there can help him gain some ticks on his fastball, which averaged 94.5 mph in 2021 but just 91.9 mph last season.

Youngsters Brandon Young – the Orioles' 2024 Jim Palmer Award winner – and Chayce McDermott provide further depth. They seem longshots to make the Opening Day rotation, but could be knocking on the door during the 2025 season.

Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are wild cards for next year. The pitchers had elbow procedures two days apart in June. Both could be back in the second half. But will it take them time to get back up to speed? Do they return mid-year as hoped?

Wells had a revision ulnar collateral ligament procedure with UCL repair and internal brace augmentation. It requires less recovery time. He could return sooner than Bradish, who had Tommy John surgery.

What is your take on this version, as it stands today, of the Baltimore rotation?