SAN DIEGO – The Rule 5 draft begins in less than two hours, and the Orioles aren’t committed to making a selection. Having the 17^th pick creates a rare air of uncertainty.

They chose pitcher Tyler Wells from the Twins organization at No. 17 in 2020, the last year that the Rule 5 draft was held, but after they selected pitcher Mac Sceroler from the Reds at No. 5 – and returned him on June 26.

Wells impressed as a late-inning reliever during his rookie season and made a smooth transition to the rotation this year.

Pitcher Michael Rucker was chosen from the Cubs in 2019, but after the Orioles grabbed pitcher Brandon Bailey from the Astros with the second pick. They didn’t make it through spring training.

The Orioles made three selections in 2017, flexing their Rule 5 muscle to the point where they should have cramped up. They plucked left-hander Nestor Cortés Jr. from the Yankees at No. 9, right-hander Pedro Araújo from the Cubs at No. 16 and right-hander José Mesa Jr. from the Yankees at No. 18.

SAN DIEGO – The Winter Meetings have reached their fourth day of activity if you include Sunday. Some do, some don’t. Depends on your flight schedule.

Let’s say third full day and get on with our lives.

The work rhythm seems a bit off, which I blame on a more condensed version with the Rule 5 draft happening this afternoon instead of Thursday morning. The embedding yesterday of the first draft lottery also provided a new wrinkle for the older beat and national crews.

The Orioles possess the 17^th pick in the Rule 5, which lessens the chances that they’ll use it. Having the first or second makes it a no-brainer.

I’ve been relying on their track record of activity, with a selection made every year since 2006 - the exception, of course, being 2021 because the Winter Meetings were canceled – but executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias talked yesterday about the uncertainty that comes with a later selection and indicated that his club could pass.

SAN DIEGO – The new draft lottery couldn’t budge the Orioles from the 17^th spot.

Their 0.4 percent odds of receiving the first-overall pick proved to be accurate, with no amount of ping pong balls able to influence it. The Brewers remained 18^th, also where they started the day.

The Orioles haven’t drafted outside the top five since taking high school pitcher Grayson Rodriguez 11^th overall in 2018. They haven’t been pushed back this far since choosing prep left-hander DL Hall 21^st overall in 2017.

The lottery system was approved in the new collective bargaining agreement for the 18 teams that missed the playoffs.

The Pirates were the big winners tonight – a rare distinction for the franchise - by receiving the first pick, followed by the Nationals, Tigers, Rangers, Twins, Athletics, Reds, Royals, Rockies, Marlins, Angels, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Red Sox, White Sox, Giants, Orioles and Brewers.

SAN DIEGO - A grand tradition of the Winter Meetings is the enormous media scrum that sets up for agent Scott Boras in the lobby area. Occasionally informative and often entertaining.

The Orioles’ unexpected rise to contender status in 2022 and executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ vow to seek ways to improve the major league roster have put them back on his radar.

“Baltimore, they’re birds of prey,” Boras said. “They’ve feathered up.”

Don’t overthink it. Whatever “feathered up” means, it’s vintage Boras.

“They have an amazing young core,” Boras added, before listing clients Gunnar Henderson and DL Hall. “There are a number of young players that they’re stocked with, and I think they’re trying to supplement this young nucleus. They really feel like they’re ready to compete.”

SAN DIEGO – The Orioles are deepening their pool of left-handed-hitting corner outfielders.

Nomar Mazara signed a minor league contract this morning, providing more competition in camp for a role that’s been defined as a priority at the Winter Meetings.

Mazara, 27, hit 79 home runs in four seasons with the Rangers beginning in 2016, when he finished fifth in voting for American League Rookie of the Year. He had 30 doubles and drove in 101 runs in 2017.

The White Sox acquired Mazara in a Dec. 10, 2019 trade for outfielder Steele Walker, who made his major league debut this year. The Orioles are Mazara’s fourth organization since that day, including the 50 games he played for the Tigers in 2021 and 55 with the Padres this summer.

He’s totaled six home runs since leaving the Rangers, who gave him a $5 million signing bonus as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic.

SAN DIEGO – Veteran pitcher Kyle Gibson passed a physical and signed his contract today with the Orioles that pays $10 million in 2023.

The deal was made after the Orioles declined Jordan Lyles’ $11 million option and gave him a $1 million buyout.

“I think that we targeted Kyle. He was a priority for us,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said today in his suite at the Manchester Grand Hyatt.

“Our jobs as front office evaluators is to look at what we think is going to happen in the future, and not what somebody’s baseball card numbers were last season, and we saw a lot of things to us that project well into the future for Kyle. I think he’s going to have a really nice season for us and is a really good fit, and it puts us in a position of security with our rotation, our pitching staff, as we proceed through the rest of the offseason.

“It’s nice for us to have him in the fold already in this early juncture.”

SAN DIEGO – The Orioles made their first move of the Winter Meetings this afternoon. A minor league deal that won’t get a team to the podium but is aimed at providing depth.

The club announced that it signed pitcher Ofriedy Gómez, who spent this season in the Phillies organization and registered a combined 5.19 ERA and 1.754 WHIP in 38 games between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Gómez is assigned to Triple-A Norfolk’s roster.

The one-year deal with starter Kyle Gibson, pending a physical, hasn’t been announced. An agreement was reached over the weekend.

Gómez, 27, hasn’t pitched in the majors. He spent eight years in the Royals organization beginning in 2013, and the 2021 season in the White Sox’s system following his release. He signed with the Phillies in April.

SAN DIEGO – Justin Verlander is off the Winter Meetings board after reaching agreement with the Mets today on a two-year, $86.66 million deal. The Rangers already secured Jacob deGrom with a five-year, $185 million contract.

Left-hander Carlos Rodón is the top free agent pitcher on the market, and the Orioles have been linked to him based on how they “checked in” – a popular offseason term – their quest for a frontline starter and their willingness to expand payroll.

That’s basically it.  

They aren’t ignoring the top tier, but they’re most aggressive below it.

Rodón is seeking a six-year deal at an annual rate of $30 million or more, according to the New York Post, which is territory that the Orioles aren’t expected to wander into this winter. However, there is legitimate interest in veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon. He’s created the loudest lobby buzz on the first day.

SAN DIEGO – Baseball executives and media are flowing into the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego today for the start of the Winter Meetings that were held virtually two years ago due to the pandemic and canceled in 2021 during the lockout.

The Orioles haven’t announced the signing of veteran pitcher Kyle Gibson to a one-year contract because he must pass his physical before the deal is official.   

Other business is conducted that extends beyond the major league and minor league roster.

The club is operating behind the scenes to promote and hire members of the scouting and analytics departments.

Kevin Carter and Will Roberston have been promoted from Pro Scouting Analyst to Senior Pro Scouting Analyst. Ben Reed is promoted from Pro Scouting Fellow to Pro Scouting Analyst.

The Winter Meetings are back to normal after going virtual in 2020 and disappearing in 2021.

Media can storm the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego, clog the lobby and wait in long lines for its morning coffee.

I’d expect the largest wave of reporters to arrive later today. Some team executives will wait until Monday morning. And then, it’s on.

The Orioles will be linked to pretty much everyone, based on the vow to be more aggressive this winter and to increase payroll - the lobby buzz will be deafening - but much of that money is set aside for arbitration raises. They’re at the stage of the rebuild to begin spending more in free agency and to inherit heftier contracts, but I’ll repeat that they aren’t in hot pursuit of the big four shortstops. I'll also stand by my earlier take that they aren't being super aggressive with the top-tier starting pitchers, as if primed to break the bank and leave everyone else wounded from lesser bids, but I'll happily pivot if they do.

Checking in with representatives isn't the same thing. That's happening a lot, at every tier, because it's the responsible thing to do. And they obviously like left-hander Carlos Rodón, but so do teams like the Mets and Yankees who live in a different financial neighborhood.

The Orioles have made a flurry of moves leading into the Winter Meetings that begin Sunday, with today’s news pertaining to the signing of a veteran starting pitcher who's a year removed from his selection to the All-Star team.

Right-hander Kyle Gibson has agreed to a one-year contract pending a physical, as first reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Gibson isn’t the elite starter that the club is seeking, but he can slot near the back end of the rotation and perhaps serve as Jordan Lyles' replacement. The Orioles declined Lyles’ $11 million option.

The 40-man roster will grow to 38 players after Gibson signs.

Gibson, 35, is a former first-round pick in the 2009 draft out of the University of Missouri who has registered a 4.52 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 10 seasons. He spent the first seven with the Twins, parts of the next two with the Rangers and parts of the last two with the Phillies.

The Winter Meetings that begin Sunday in San Diego will maintain or create new dialogues between Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias and various executives and scouts. Talks aimed at producing a trade or free agent signing, or building momentum toward resolutions later in the offseason.

The Orioles have been fairly predictable in the past, but moving into a more competitive stage, with a more aggressive attitude, could change that entirely.

What should stay the same is the annual selection in the Rule 5 draft, the only interruption blamed on the lockout, unless picking 17^th costs them the players they wanted. They aren’t averse to passing.

They could add to the list of waiver claims that includes third baseman Rio Ruiz at the 2018 Winter Meetings, Elias’ first major league addition, reliever Marcos Diplán at the 2019 event and pitcher Ashton Goudeau in 2020.

It always leads to the line, “Assuring that they won’t go home with just a Rule 5 pick.”

The Orioles are prepared to arrive at the Winter Meetings next week with 37 players on their 40-man roster.

Multiple moves were announced earlier today, with one player joining the organization and two others removed from the 40-man.

The Orioles claimed first baseman Lewin Díaz off waivers from the Pirates. Outfielder Daz Cameron was assigned to Triple-A Norfolk after clearing waivers, and the Phillies claimed outfielder Jake Cave.

Díaz, 26, fits the profile of the left-handed hitting first baseman/designated hitter that the Orioles are shopping for, but they’ll keep checking the market to further address that part of the roster.

The Pirates claimed Díaz from the Marlins on Nov. 22 and designated him for assignment two days ago after signing free agent Carlos Santana. They also traded for first baseman Ji-Man Choi, lessening the chances of Díaz staying with the team.

One of the potential benefits of attending the Winter Meetings, held next week at the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego, is the chance to gain more clarity on the Orioles’ preferences for the construction of their roster. Any specifics regarding the pitching staff or lineup. How they might pivot if the original plan begins to crumble.  

Daily media sessions with executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias can be enlightening, without any expectations of him providing play-by-play on his meetings with executives and agents. Information can be dispensed in broad terms and still satisfy the masses.

The desire to sign or trade for at least one veteran starting pitcher has been confirmed. Nothing new on that front. And the targeted areas in free agency are below the top tier, which you’d hope would douse any reports linking the Orioles to the priciest arms and suggesting that they’d engage in a massive bidding war.

Here's the question that hasn’t been answered: What is the exact level of importance in bringing in a left-hander?

John Means will head back to the 60-day injured list after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Bruce Zimmermann broke camp last spring as the No. 4 starter but made a few trips to the minors and isn’t a lock for the rotation after registering a 5.99 ERA and 1.480 WHIP.

The version of Seth Johnson that didn’t undergo ligament-reconstructive surgery in his right elbow was projected by some outlets to reach the majors next summer. He might have finished this season at Double-A, shortening his climb onto the Orioles’ active roster.

Johnson made seven starts at High-A Bowling Green before the injury, and prior to the deadline trade that sent him from the Rays to the Orioles. He didn’t pitch after May 20 and had his procedure on Aug. 3, which threatens to keep him away from an affiliate until 2024.

A throwing program is set to begin in the middle of January and the Orioles will get a clearer read on his progress. Johnson is hoping at a minimum to pitch in the Florida Complex League before the minors shut down.

The road to Sarasota already has been traveled. Johnson is cleared for weight training, which he’s done at the spring training complex except for a short period when it closed for some renovations.

Johnson has mostly kept his offseason on a normal trajectory other than the whole pitching thing.

The timing of the trade was so good that Seth Johnson didn’t dwell as much on the oddity of his circumstances.

Johnson had just arrived in Dallas on Aug. 1 for the surgical repair of his right elbow that would be done two days later. Waiting for his father to join him at the rental car counter, Johnson received a phone call from the Rays informing him of the three-team trade involving the Orioles.

“With the Rays, you get traded pretty quick and stuff happens kind of fast with them,” he said yesterday, “but it was still kind of a shock just because everything you’ve known goes out the window because you’ve got a new organization to learn.”

A coincidence weaved its way into the introduction.

“It actually worked out nice because later that night I was planning on going to the Orioles and Rangers game anyway, so I got traded like four hours before that game and got to go see the new organization play that night,” he said. “So, that was pretty neat.”

Armchair general managers stayed busy in the early days of the offseason. Imagine how hectic it’s become with the free agent and trade markets wide open and the Winter Meetings approaching.

Your mistakes can’t cost you a job that you don’t actually have, which makes it a sweet gig.

I already posed five questions: whether you’d re-sign first baseman Jesús Aguilar, whether you’d pick up Jordan Lyles’ $11 million option (the Orioles didn’t), whether you’d trade an outfielder, whether you’d stay in-house for a backup catcher, and whether you’d attempt to re-sign Rougned Odor.

Here are two more:

Would you stay in-house for a shortstop?
Four of the top five free agents are shortstops, according to the MLBTradeRumors.com rankings – Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. The cheapest contract projection is Swanson’s seven-year, $154 million deal.

Baseball’s regular season ended on Oct. 5. The World Series finished exactly a month later. The Arizona Fall League wrapped up two weeks ago.

There’s still the annual game of seeing how far the Thanksgiving leftovers can be stretched. And its spinoffs.

Does this smell right? Didn’t that used to be gravy? If that's a mushroom, why is it moving?

The sport has its own leftovers. Delicious nuggets from the Orioles’ public relations staff.

I’ll heat up another batch this morning.

An area of improvement that can’t be predicted or counted upon in 2023 is the Orioles’ success in close games.

A better bullpen deserves much of the credit.

Eighty-three were decided by two runs or fewer, the fifth-most in the American League and ninth-most in the majors. Manager Brandon Hyde would playfully remind everyone that there were no rules prohibiting big early leads and coasting to victories.

His club went 43-40, which tied for the fifth-most wins in the AL and sixth in the majors.  

Flip back to 2021 and you’ll find that the Orioles played 63 games decided by two runs or fewer, tied for the least amount in the majors. Their 24 wins were the second lowest.

An immediate takeaway from Friday night’s announcement that the Orioles tendered contracts to their six arbitration-eligible players:

No one in the group was non-tendered, and there were some questions surrounding pitcher Austin Voth based on projected salary and uncertain role.

MLBTradeRumors.com has Voth’s contract rising from $875,000 to $2 million. He’s got to make the club out of spring training and he’s out of minor league options.

Will the Orioles run out of room in their rotation?

Voth could make a simple transition to bulk relief/swingman if he isn’t starting every fifth day. He’s worked out of the bullpen, including 19 times with the Nationals before the Orioles claimed him off waivers. And he’s a poster child for the benefits of the team’s pitching instruction.