Thoughts on ways Orioles can improve in 2025

As the offseason rolls merrily along, except of course for the segment of the fan base that feels flattened by it, win projections and championship odds already have surfaced on the internet.

They seemed premature in December and remain so in the first week of January, but they always can be adjusted later.

The Orioles could or could not be done with their search for starting pitching and they must address the bullpen, but they’re graded now based on losing their ace starter and 44-homer bat. The dip is minimized by the additions of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, along with backup catcher Gary Sánchez, at a combined $71 million.

Expectations could change again after the Orioles announced Friday evening that they signed veteran starter Charlie Morton to a $15 million deal.

The consensus seems to be that the Orioles remain a playoff team, which back in the day would have been celebrated with tremendous enthusiasm. They haven’t qualified for the postseason in three consecutive years since 1969-71, reaching the World Series each time. Perceptions of a dynasty are ruined by losses in ’69 and ’71. Perceptions of the current club are marred by back-to-back sweeps.

The last playoff win was Game 3 of the 2014 Division Series in Detroit. The Orioles were on the winning side of this sweep, with Bud Norris tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings in the clincher, Andrew Miller retiring all five batters faced and Zack Britton getting the shaky save in a 2-1 victory.

The Orioles bested three Cy Young Award winners in Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price. Detroit’s bullpen was a disaster. Times were good in Baltimore. But they’ve lost their last 10 playoff games.

BetOnline.ag still had the Orioles’ projected win total at 88 ½ heading into the weekend, a reduction of a game since Corbin Burnes signed with Arizona, but the second-highest in the American League to the Yankees.

FanGraph’s ZiPS put the win total somewhere between 85 and 90 games per creator Dan Szymborski before the four free agent signings. BetMaryland.com sets the over/under at 91.5 and ESPN presents a win total of 89.5 with World Series odds 12/1. Fox Sports gives the Orioles the sixth-best odds at plus-1100.

How can the Orioles improve on their 91 wins and perhaps claim the division title again, as they did the previous year by going 101-61? They probably can’t count on much cooperation from the Yankees, who lost Juan Soto but gained Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt. The Red Sox traded for Garrett Crochet and signed Walker Buehler and Aroldis Chapman.

O’Neill needs to replace a large chunk of Anthony Santander’s power, though no one is pressing him for 44 home runs. Sugano needs to fortify the back end of the rotation, with a smooth adjustment to the majors and the same pinpoint control and fantastic six-pitch mix.

What else?

* The obvious answer is a new No. 1 starter, but it may not happen. The Morton signing could signal the end of the starter hunt. But in-house improvements also would go a long way toward snapping the 10-loss streak.

Adley Rutschman is expected to bounce back from a second half where he slashed .207/.282/.303 and finished the season batting .219/.290/.342 against right-handers. He’s had an entire offseason to rest up and heal from whatever ailed him. And the guy didn’t suddenly forget how to hit.

The reset should bring marked improvements, and that’s going to make the Orioles a better team than the version that acted like it suddenly forget how to hit after the break.

* The Orioles should be better with runners in scoring position.

They finished with a .251/.314/.428 line, including .254/.324/.401 in the second half. They ranked first in 2023 with a .287 average and .837 OPS.

It kept getting worse as the season moved closer to the playoffs.

The failings really haunted them in the Wild Card series, where the Orioles scored one run, went 1-for-13 with RISP and stranded 16. Assume it’s just one of those flukish occurrences that isn’t easily explained and hope for better results.

* Jackson Holliday will experience fewer growing pains.

Not to put too much pressure on the 20-year-old infielder, but playing closer to the level that made him the top draft pick in 2022 and the No. 1 prospect in baseball would be a huge boost to the offense.

Holliday batted .189/.255/.311 in 60 games, with 15 walks and 69 strikeouts in 208 plate appearances. His walk-to-strikeout ratio figures to improve. These numbers are out of character for him.

Holliday had seven hits in his last 18 at-bats of the regular season. Now, imagine what’s possible in a full season with adjustments made at the plate.

* Colton Cowser will become more consistent.

Again, no pressure. And he was runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting in the American League. The season was a rousing success, enabling Cowser to become established and surrender his shuttle pass.

He’ll be the first to point out that he wants to be more consistent and avoid those steep dips. Cowser was Rookie of the Month for April but slashed .188/.305/.274 in May and .182/.250/.429 in June, followed by a .329/.390/.521 line in July. He hit .234 with a .718 OPS in August and .232 with a .754 OPS in September.

Cowser can help make the offense hum rather than having it strike so many sour notes.

* The Mountain is back.

Félix Bautista will be full-go in camp, and the Orioles should be able to shed the late-inning drama that cost them games and serenity in the ‘pen.

Bautista will be eased back into his role, and the Orioles have a full season of Seranthony Domínguez to handle some of the load. Craig Kimbrel’s second-half collapse was a big detriment. Having a healthy Bautista and his triple-digit fastball and nasty splitter can elevate the Orioles to another level.

* Better team health should bring a better record.

Could it get much worse?

Don’t answer that.

Spotrac lists 17 injured list transactions for the Orioles in 2024, with 1,258 days missed that’s actually lower than only seven teams. It seemed a lot worse, right?

Corbin Burnes was the only full-time starter who stayed healthy, with his lone absence linked to the paternity list. Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells underwent reconstructive elbow surgeries. Dean Kremer had a strained triceps muscle. Grayson Rodriguez had shoulder inflammation and a strained lat/teres. They were dropping like flies.

Zach Eflin made nine starts with the Orioles. It would have been more except for his right shoulder inflammation.

The bullpen had to function without Danny Coulombe for three months. Cionel Pérez didn’t make it past March 31 before straining his oblique. Jacob Webb went on the IL in August with elbow inflammation.

Austin Hays – hurt. Jorge Mateo – concussion and hurt. Ramón Urías – hurt. Ryan Mountcastle – hurt. Jordan Westburg – hurt. Heston Kjerstad – concussion. Burch Smith – hurt.

It would have been comical if not so hard to watch.

Having Bradish and Wells on the roster after the break is a heck of a lot better than losing them in the first.

* New left field dimensions can unlock more power.

Maybe it’s robbing Peter to pay Paul, benefiting the hitters but making life a litter harder on the pitchers. But the Orioles think they’ve found a nice compromise.

Lazy fly balls don’t land in the first two rows of seats in left field after the Orioles moved back the fence in 2022. Bringing it back in, though not to its original distance, is supposed to reward hitters who barrel a ball and watch it die on the track.

This is known in the organization as correcting an overcorrection.

This is known to Mountcastle as a blessing. He’s the king of the unfair result, and the switch could boost his home run total. The same goes for other hitters – mostly right-handed but also some lefties like Cowser, Kjerstad and Gunnar Henderson with opposite-field pop.