The Orioles will need to go 8-2 over their final 10 games to avoid their first losing season since 2011. They're only 1 1/2 games ahead of the last-place Blue Jays in the American League East.
I could bore you with details of the wild card chase - the Orioles remain 5 1/2 games behind the Twins - but the focus should be on smaller gains.
Don't end up in the cellar. Try to claw back to .500.
Don't waste eight runs from the offense and eight shutout innings from the starter on consecutive nights.
"That's how it's going," catcher Caleb Joseph said following last night's 1-0 11-inning loss to the Red Sox. "The story of our 2017 season."
You can flip ahead to the ending, but you're probably not going to like it.
Can left-hander Wade Miley bounce back from his last start, the shortest of his career? And will the Orioles pick up the $12 million option on his contract or let him become a free agent?
Answers to follow later, but let's just focus on tonight's game.
Miley lasted only one-third of an inning at Yankee Stadium and surrendered six runs and six hits in a 13-5 loss. His ERA climbed from 4.96 to 5.32 in 149 innings.
In two starts against the Red Sox this year, Miley has allowed two runs in 12 innings while winning both decisions.
Chris Young is 6-for-18 with two doubles against Miley.
Right-handers are hitting .300 against Miley this season and left-handers are hitting .215.
The Red Sox keep cranking out their ace-like material. Same as the Indians, Yankees and so many other Orioles opponents this summer.
Left-hander Chris Sale is 16-7 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 30 starts, and he's averaging 1.8 walks and 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings. His 201 1/3 innings and 287 strikeouts lead the majors.
The Orioles have faced Sale twice this season. He held them to two runs and three hits and struck out 11 batters over eight innings on May 2 at Fenway Park, losing his pinpoint command just long enough to fire a pitch behind Manny Machado's knees, and allowed three runs with nine strikeouts over six innings on June 4 at Camden Yards.
Sale is 4-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 13 career games (seven starts) against the Orioles and 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in eight games (five starts) at Camden Yards.
The current group is 32-for-150 (.213) against Sale. Machado is 5-for-14 with a double and home run, so Sale can decide whether to poke the bear again.
Chris Davis is 2-for-15 and Tim Beckham is 0-for-11 with six strikeouts.
If you're debating whether to sit Beckham, who struck out four times last night, J.J. Hardy is 4-for-17 with a home run.
Left-handers are hitting .204 against Sale in his career. It's hard to find favorable matchups, but manager Buck Showalter will try to stack his lineup with as many right-handers as possible.
Right-handers actually are batting .204 against Sale this year and left-handers are batting .214. So, yeah, good luck with those matchups.
I wrote yesterday that the fall instructional league begins Monday. The roster includes pitcher DL Hall and shortstop Adam Hall, the 21st and 60th overall picks in the June draft, and pitchers Cody Sedlock and Keegan Akin, the club's top two selections in 2016.
Sedlock is part of the rehab group.
First basemen Preston Palmeiro and Ryan Ripken also will work out in Sarasota. You may recognize the last names.
The Orioles may attempt to shift Palmeiro to second base before next season.
The instructional league opened late because of Hurricane Irma and a few teams canceled their camps. The Orioles will play the Yankees, Braves, Pirates and Rays.
"What happens is, the games are kind of secondary," Showalter said. "It gives you a chance to, I don't want to say experiment, but look at some things that you would have liked to have done. Maybe a position change.
"They have player plans. In other words, they come from the Aberdeen manager and coaches and roving instructors who say, 'Here's something this guy needs to work on to get better at and he needs to do to be a better prospect.' It may be stealing a base, it may be getting a changeup over.
"Winning is obviously important, but the end game is about trying to attack the shortcomings of players. They all have talent and they all have shortcomings, as do guys in the major leagues, so you're able to really attack it in the morning and in the afternoon and the games are almost secondary, and statistically what a guy does. You just want to feel like you're attacking their weaknesses."
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