Where do Gray and Cavalli fit into Nats' plans at this point?

In an alternate universe, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli would be very much in the Nationals’ Opening Day plans right now, the two right-handers probably joining MacKenzie Gore to fill out the top three slots in the club’s 2025 rotation.

That’s how things were supposed to go. Gray was the team’s Opening Day starter last year after earning an All-Star selection the prior year. Cavalli was on track to make his long-awaited return from March 2023 Tommy John surgery sometime around June 2024 and finally realize his full potential.

In the real universe we all occupy, neither figures to be on the 26-man roster come March 27. Gray, we already know, will miss most of the season while recovering from his Tommy John surgery and internal brace procedure. Cavalli, though reportedly healthy now, still needs to prove he can pitch every five days and have some success in the minors before the Nationals are likely to include him in their big league rotation.

It's clear the organization has prepared to proceed without either. They’ve signed three free agent starters this winter in Michael Soroka, Trevor Williams and Shinnosuke Osagawara, and while none of them is viewed as a frontline starter, all are healthy and are supposed to be part of the staff entering the new season. They also have Gore and Jake Irvin as holdovers, plus young left-handers DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker trying to hold onto the rotation spots they held for much of last season.

So what does that mean for Gray and Cavalli, both in the short- and long-term?

First things first: Both pitchers must prove they’re healthy and ready to thrive in the major leagues again. The good news on that front: Gray took a major step in the right direction Monday when he threw a baseball for the first time since his July 24 elbow surgery.

Those first six months with zero throwing are hard for patients recovering from Tommy John, but the next six-plus months are no picnic, either. No matter how good his arm feels, Gray will be restricted and allowed to proceed only on the predetermined pace all pitchers in his situation must follow.

He won’t throw off a mound for a while longer. Then he’ll eventually be allowed to face live hitters on a back field in West Palm Beach. And then, with about one month to go in his 12-to-14 month rehab program, he’ll finally be cleared to pitch for minor league affiliates in actual games, slowly building his arm back up.

If all goes well, Gray hopes to be pitching for the Nats before season’s end. Of course, who knows what the state of the team will be at that point, or whether there will be an available spot in the rotation for him down the stretch.

Cavalli, meanwhile, already went through much of that same process last year, only to have his rehab program halted in its final stages when he experienced dead arm and struggled to recover after a few minor league starts. The 2020 first round pick insisted by season’s end he was healthy, and he would’ve been able to return to pitch had there been any games left on the schedule. But that guarantees nothing heading into this season.

Now 26, Cavalli has made only one big league start (Aug. 26, 2022). He pitched in only three minor league games last season. Yes, the Nationals would love for him to finally put it all together and blossom into the ace they always believed he could be. But before they can even think about that, they have to see him actually pitch in a competitive baseball game, have success doing it, then come back and do it again five days later.

Perhaps Cavalli will get there sometime in the first half of the 2025 season. And perhaps Gray will join him in August or September. But it’s fair to wonder just how much the organization is counting on either pitcher at this point.

General manager Mike Rizzo spoke over the weekend about the pitching depth the Nationals now have: “This is the deepest starting pitching staff that we’ve had in a long time at the upper minor leagues and the major leagues. We think we go nine or 10 deep now, which is something we’ve been trying to get to for years.”

Gray and Cavalli at this point might be ninth and 10th on that depth chart. The Nats certainly will give them every opportunity to climb the ladder, once healthy. But until either right-hander proves he’s ready to pitch again, neither can be viewed as a guaranteed part of the organizational plan. At least in this universe.