Would Nats bring Williams back after bounceback season?

PLAYER REVIEW: TREVOR WILLIAMS

Age on Opening Day 2025: 32

How acquired: Signed as free agent, December 2022

MLB service time: 8 years, 27 days

2024 salary: $7 million

Contract status: Free agent

2024 stats: 6-1, 2.03 ERA, 13 G, 13 GS, 66.2 IP, 51 H, 17 R, 15 ER, 3 HR, 18 BB, 59 SO, 0 HBP, 1.035 WHIP, 199 ERA+, 2.79 FIP, 2.6 bWAR, 2.0 fWAR

Quotable: “I think we learned last year that, even with a pitch I’ve had success with in the past, I kept trying to go to it. And it was getting really damaged. So, just try and avoid damage. That’s pitching. Try and figure out where you can not get hurt by slug. Thankfully, we were able to find that and ride that wave.” – Trevor Williams

2024 analysis: Expectations could not have been any lower for Trevor Williams entering the season. On the heels of a disastrous 2023 (6-10, 5.55 ERA, 1.600 WHIP), there was little reason to believe a significant turnaround was in store. The Nationals didn’t really hide that, all but suggesting Williams could be bumped to the bullpen with a couple of shaky starts to begin the year.

Then the veteran right-hander went out and pitched. And pitched well. And kept pitching well. Eight starts in, he was 4-0 with a 1.94 ERA, completing at least five innings each time and allowing more than one run only twice. By the end of May, he was 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA, having surrendered only two homers in 56 2/3 innings.

And then, out of the blue, Williams landed on the injured list with a sore elbow. He was diagnosed with a flexor strain, a similar diagnosis to the one Josiah Gray initially received way back in April. He was guaranteed to miss a significant amount of time. The only question: Would he have enough time to make it back before season’s end?

Williams did make it back in time to make two final starts late in September. Why bother at that point? To make sure he was actually healthy again, and to give him some peace of mind heading into the winter. So when he picked up right where he left off in May, allowing one total run in 10 innings in those final two starts, he indeed was able to head home for the winter confident he was healthy and able to pitch as effectively as he did prior to the injury.

2025 outlook: How did Williams turn himself into such a different pitcher from one year to the next? As he noted in the above quote, he (with help from coaches Jim Hickey and Sean Doolittle) identified what pitches caused most of his problems in 2023 and tried to eliminate them from his repertoire in 2024.

The biggest changes he made? He dramatically reduced the usage of his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than 50 percent of the time last year and led to an opponents’ slugging percentage of .563. And he ditched his curveball (.629 opponents’ slugging percentage in 2023) and instead threw a sweeper (.152 opponents’ slugging percentage). Those changes, combined with a renewed effort to keep the ball down in the zone at all times, allowed him to lower his home run rate from 5.2 percent to a mere 1.2 percent.

Can Williams do that again next year? And if he can do that, can he stay healthy enough to make 30 starts after missing 3 1/2 months this season? That’s the question any interested teams will have to consider. At this point, the Nationals appear to have enough younger options for their rotation to pass on bringing Williams back as a full-time starter. They would probably view him as a valuable swingman who could open as a long reliever but go back to the rotation if the need arose. But there may be other teams out there willing to consider Williams a full-time starter. And if one of them makes him a decent offer, it’s probably safe to assume he’d take that over a less-defined role in D.C.