Another injury-filled year leaves uncertainty around Strasburg

As our offseason coverage kicks into high gear, we're going to review each significant player on the Nationals roster. We continue today with Stephen Strasburg, whose season was disrupted by neck and shoulder injuries.

PLAYER REVIEW: STEPHEN STRASBURG

Age on opening day 2019: 30

How acquired: First-round pick, 2009 draft

MLB service time: 8 years, 118 days

2018 salary: $15 million

Contract status: Signed for $35 million in 2019 ($30 million deferred), $25 million in 2020 ($10 million deferred), $15 million in 2021, $15 million in 2022, $45 million in 2023 ($30 million deferred). Will receive $10 million signing bonus on July 1, 2019. May opt out of contract after 2019 or 2020 season.

2018 stats: 10-7, 3.74 ERA, 22 GS, 0 CG, 130 IP, 118 H, 59 R, 54 ER, 18 HR, 38 BB, 156 SO, 8 HBP, 1.200 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR, 2.6 bWAR

Quotable: "By no means am I satisfied with how it went this year, and I'm sure a lot of other guys feel the same." - Strasburg

2018 analysis: For the first time in a while, Strasburg entered a season with no significant question marks. Coming off a brilliant finish to his 2017 that was capped by two lights-out starts in the playoffs against the Cubs, the right-hander looked like he was poised to elevate himself to another level and forever leave behind some of the questions that had dogged him in the past.

Strasburg's numbers through the season's first two months (3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) were good, but there were visual signs that suggested he wasn't 100 percent healthy. And sure enough, on June 8 he departed his start against the Giants after only two innings and wound up on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation.

It took Strasburg six weeks to return from that injury, and his return lasted only five innings. After getting roughed up by the Braves on July 20, he landed back on the DL, this time with a cervical nerve impingement that appeared to be the root of all his problems. A nerve block injection allowed him to return to the mound in late August, but he was never really the same.

Though Strasburg pitched well down the stretch (4-0, 2.66 ERA in his final seven starts) his velocity was down several miles per hour. He said at season's end that doctors expect his fastball to return after he has a full winter of rest, but it was nonetheless a significant red flag at the end of a disappointing season.

2019 outlook: Strasburg insists he'll be 100 percent healthy when he arrives for spring training, and that probably will be true. The more pertinent question is whether he can stay 100 percent healthy for the entire season. History suggests he won't.

Only twice in his career has Strasburg made it through an entire year without a trip to the DL: in 2012 (when he infamously was shut down for September and October by the organization) and in 2014 (when he made a career-high 34 starts and totaled 215 innings). He has been forced to miss time - often considerable time - due to injury in every other season, and so the baseline prediction for him now has to include another DL stint at some point.

The Nationals accept this, and their top priority isn't to get as many starts as possible out of Strasburg but rather to make sure he's healthy and available to them at the end of each season. The problem with that, as we found out this year, is that his unavailability for much of the summer made his healthy presence in September meaningless because the team wasn't playing for anything anymore.

One added wrinkle to the coming season: Strasburg will be allowed to opt out of his $175 million contract next winter if he chooses. If he has a big year and believes he can cash in with an even better contract, it will be tempting to opt out. But if he again battles injuries and doesn't see a market ready to offer him more than he already makes, he'll probably stick with what he already has. At which point the Nationals will have to hope he does manage to stay healthy enough to warrant his hefty price tag before his deal expires after the 2023 season.