Better, worse or the same in 2020: Pitchers

Yesterday we looked at Nationals position players and tried to project whether the club will be better, worse or the same at each position. Today we'll attempt the same exercise for their pitching staff.

Keep in mind, this is broken down into roles on the pitching staff (i.e. No. 1 starter, setup men). In some cases where there hasn't been a change, it's essentially a projection of how one pitcher is going to compare to last season. But in other cases where there have been changes, it's a broader look at that particular role on the staff and how it might compare to 2019.

With that, away we go ...

NO. 1 STARTER: Slightly better
By his standards (and his standards alone), Max Scherzer regressed some last season. His numbers (2.92 ERA, 1.027 WHIP, 243 strikeouts to 33 walks) were still really, really good. Good enough to finish third in National League Cy Young Award voting. But he spent a prolonged stretch on the injured list for the first time in his career, ultimately missing seven regular season starts. So Scherzer enters 2020 with an obvious goal in mind: Stay healthy all season. If he does that, he assumes he'll continue to be an elite pitcher. He turns 36 in July, and common sense suggests Father Time is finally going to bring him down a peg or two. But who are we to doubt Scherzer's ability to return to peak form again? If he stays healthy, he can be better than he was in 2019.

NO. 2 STARTER: Slightly worse
Stephen Strasburg worked really hard to figure out a system that kept him healthy the entire 2019 season, and it worked. For only the second time in his career, he didn't miss a start. He led the league in wins (18) and innings (209) and produced a 3.32 ERA and 1.038 WHIP. And that's before he took things up another couple notches in October and went 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA, winning World Series MVP honors. So, was that the new norm for Strasburg? It very well could be, but we'd be remiss if we didn't consider a full decade's worth of track record. And that track record suggests Strasburg is more likely to miss at least a few starts due to injury than not. As such, we'll project a slightly worse season for him.

NO. 3 STARTER: Same
Remember when the Nationals signed Patrick Corbin for $140 million and some wondered if that was a risky move considering he had been an erratic starter in Arizona until putting it all together in his final year before free agency? Well, Corbin posted a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts that covered 200 innings and struck out 246 batters in 2018. Then he posted a 3.25 ERA in 33 starts that covered 202 innings and struck out 238 batters in 2019. Looks like he's figured it out, and there's no reason to believe he can't continue to do that again in 2020.

NO. 4 STARTER: Same
Aníbal Sánchez's 2019 season really should be broken into two parts. Before suffering a minor hamstring strain in mid-May, he was 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA. After returning two weeks later, he was 11-2 with a 3.42 ERA. Put that all together and you get 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.271 WHIP. So that total is the baseline we're looking at for these purposes. And that seems like a reasonable total for Sánchez to duplicate this season. Provided he stays healthy. The veteran made 30 starts last season, the first time he had done that since 2012. Though he had no arm troubles whatsoever last season, you still have to worry a bit about the soon-to-be 36-year-old avoiding all physical ailments this season.

NO. 5 STARTER: Better
Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, Austin Voth and Jeremy Hellickson made a combined 37 starts last season and went 12-8 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.456 WHIP. (This only includes their starts, not their relief appearances.) Three of the four are returning, with Hellickson (who was on the IL most of the season anyway) still unsigned and unlikely to be brought back. So, can we expect some combination of Ross, Fedde and Voth to be better than 12-8 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.456 WHIP? Yeah, that seems reasonable. It's hardly a given, because none of the three is a proven commodity. But all three have shown glimpses of success, especially Ross down the stretch last season. It feels like it's time for one of these guys to take the next step and become a big league regular.

CLOSER: Better
Nationals relievers as a whole had a 5.68 ERA last season, but when you limit it to only save situations, that number actually rises to 5.93. Yeah, that's really bad. Here's the good news: Sean Doolittle has help this year. Where Davey Martinez had no choice but to run Doolittle into the ground through the first four months of 2019, he should be able to back off the lefty some in 2020, with both Daniel Hudson and Will Harris capable of pitching the ninth inning when Doolittle needs regular days off. The end result should be improved numbers in the ninth inning, both for Doolittle himself but for the team as a whole.

SETUP MEN: Better
Hey, remember when the Nats went into the season with Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough and thought that duo would get the job done? Feels like a long time ago, doesn't it? On paper, the Hudson-Harris combo looks dramatically better. That doesn't guarantee improvement, because Hudson's brilliant 2019 could've been a mirage, and Harris is a 35-year-old reliever who just got a three-year deal, a combination that often doesn't work out. But if they pitch as expected, the number of blown leads in the seventh and eighth innings should drop significantly this season.

OTHER RIGHT-HANDERS: Better
Tanner Rainey, Wander Suero and Hunter Strickland are back, and their performances could determine whether the Nats bullpen is merely respectable or an honest-to-god strength. Rainey really came on strong by season's end, and the club has high hopes for him. Suero has shown he can dominate; he just needs to prove he can do it consistently from outing to outing. Strickland was not good after his acquisition from the Mariners, but he had spent the previous three months on the IL, so maybe it's unfair to evaluate him off that. Perhaps instead we ought to look at his track record (career 2.91 ERA and 1.195 WHIP from 2014-18). Just don't let him face Bryce Harper, Davey.

OTHER LEFT-HANDERS: Slightly better
How bad were Nationals left-handers last season? Take out Doolittle and their lefty relievers had a combined 7.16 ERA and 1.696 WHIP. That's awful. The main culprits (Tony Sipp, Matt Grace, Dan Jennings, Jonny Venters) are long gone. All that remains is Roenis Elías, who was an unmitigated disaster after his July 31 acquisition and his pair of hamstring strains. The Nats have to believe Elías will be serviceable now, though he'll have to prove he can actually get lefties out after posting wildly reverse splits last year. Then again, if Major League Baseball approves the new three-batter-minimum rule, Elías (and all relievers) will have no choice but to show they can retire batters from both sides of the plate.