Is Soriano pitching himself off the playoff roster?

Is deposed Nationals closer Rafael Soriano pitching himself off the playoff roster for the National League Division Series?

Two weeks ago, when Soriano was removed from ninth-inning duties after a terrible stretch since the All-Star break, I'd have told you no (in fact, I wrote that in response to several regular commenters on our blogs). The reasons were simple: Soriano had a track record, the Nationals are a veteran-laden club and first-year manager Matt Williams is a players' skipper who doesn't want to tinker with the delicate balance that is a winning, experienced clubhouse.

I was willing to follow the manager's lead and let Soriano work out the kinks in some low-leverage situations. And while Soriano did look a little better pitching in blowouts and games that didn't matter, Soriano hasn't reverted to form (despite a 3.00 ERA in September, opposing batters are hitting .313 off him in the month and 3.17 for the second half). He isn't the dominant closer who saved 22 games and posted an 0.97 ERA in the first half, holding foes to a .152 average. Quite frankly, for the first time since the Nats correctly installed Drew Storen as their new closer, Soriano looks like he doubts himself.

His slider has showed occasional flashes of its former bite, but not frequently enough to be a go-to pitch. He's still up in the zone, a dangerous thing when you're facing guys who are playing for nothing more than pride and to make an impression for next year. And yesterday's effort in the ninth-inning of a 2-1 win over the Marlins may have been the last straw.

Yes, Soriano got his 32nd save, but he didn't look the least bit comfortable in doing so. He threw nine pitches, six for strikes. But the problem wasn't the efficiency as much as the sound of the balls off the bats of the Marlins. Let's just say it was solid contact. ANd pits of stomachs all across Natstown had started to churn as soon as the broadcast showed Soriano on the mound for the ninth inning in a 2-0 game.

Pinch-hitter Reed Johnson led off the bottom of the ninth by crushing an 88 mph 2-1 fastball deep to left field over Bryce Harper, who wasn't playing deep enough to prevent the double. In fairness, if Harper catches the drive, Soriano's effort doesn't look so bad. But he didn't and it was.

That brought up leadoff man Christian Yelich, whose hard line drive off a 90 mph fastball to center fielder Michael A. Taylor was deep enough for Johnson to advance to third. The next hitter, Donovan Solano, ripped a fly ball to right on the first pitch he saw, a 91 mph fastball, for a sacrifice fly that cut the lead to 2-1.

Casey McGehee, a good contact hitter, stood between Soriano and a save, and the veteran pitcher turned to his bread-and-butter pitch, the slider, to get him out. McGehee took an 83 mph slider for a strike, then hit an 85 mph slider to left-center. It took a nice sliding catch from Harper to corral the sinking liner for the third out.

Only one of Soriano's nine pitches was above 90 mph, a troubling development for a guy who mixed a nasty slider with a rising fastball that reached the mid-90s. A drop in velocity of a couple of miles per hour might not seem like much, but at this stage of the season, it raises red flags.

Williams said all the right things in his postgame press conference, pointing out that Harper could have caught Johnson's drive, and said Soriano was "OK." But it's clear that Soriano's slider no longer has the movement it had before mid-July and it's fair to question whether a pitcher who can't pitch effectively has no business taking up a space on the postseason roster.

Soriano has worked to a 6.75 ERA in 26 games since the All-Star break. His WHIP, which was 0.811 before the break, has been 1.667 since. He's no longer a sure thing, unless you like wagering on risky propositions.

When the Nationals open the National League Division Series, they will probably carry an eight-man bullpen and a five-man bench. One starting pitcher - probably Tanner Roark, which allows Gio Gonzalez to be the lone lefty starter - gets shifted to the bullpen (and since Roark has experience pitching in relief, that move makes sense).

Unless Williams decides to include a surprise pick (Blake Treinen, Xavier Cedeno or Ryan Mattheus), that leaves seven relief spots. They should go to right-handers Storen, Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen and Aaron Barrett, and lefties Matt Thornton, Ross Detwiler and Jerry Blevins. Those are the guys who have been getting it done for most of the season.

I don't see a spot for Soriano. Do you?

I suppose you could make an argument that Blevins' spot could be sacrificed. Acquired from the A's at the Winter Meetings to provide a reliable and durable southpaw out of the 'pen, Blevins has made 61 appearances with mostly spotty results: a 5.17 ERA over 54 innings. He's held left-handed hitters to a .163 average, but has yielded a .307 mark to right-handed hitters. His splits scream LOOGY (left-handed one-out guy), and while he's worked longer over his career - that was one of the things that made him attractive to the Nats - Blevins hasn't flourished in that role in his first season in D.C.

But keeping three left-handers in the playoff 'pen has a certain appeal. Detwiler can handle long relief, function as a bridge to the later innings or be called on for a matchup. Thornton, a shrewd early August waiver claim by general manager Mike Rizzo, gets the call for high-leverage situations or pitches an inning to get to Clippard and Storen. Blevins could serve an important role to get a lefty swinger in a key situation from the fifth inning to the seventh. His presence could allow Williams to throw Blevins, a right-hander and then Thornton if the opposition has lefty-righty-lefty batters in the sixth or seventh. In the postseason, remember, it's all about the matchups.

When Williams removed Soriano from the closer's role, he said the veteran right-hander would get the chance to pitch in low-impact innings to work out his problems. With a week to go in the regular season and the playoffs looming, I'm not sure there are many low-leverage situations left. Not if the Nats want to stay ahead of the Dodgers for the best record in the NL and home field through the National League Championship Series.

Soriano, who signed a two-year, $28 million deal before the 2013 season, has a $14 million club option for 2015 that is automatically triggered if he finishes 120 games between 2013 and 2014. Soriano isn't going to reach that benchmark; yesterday was his 106th game finished and there are only even games remaining in the season. The math isn't in his favor.

For a year and a half, Soriano was money well spent. Now he's an accident waiting to happen. It's ironic that Storen, the guy who blew the save in the 2012 NLDS against the Cardinals, has repositioned himself to be the Nats' ninth-inning savior heading into the 2014 playoffs. But Storen is the right guy for the job; he's been the Nationals' best reliever all season.

The Untuck Era may be over.