Nats' hopes for 2021 rebound start with their starters

We can talk about injuries. We can look at offensive consistency. We can point to the bullpen or poor defensive fundamentals. All played a role in the Nationals' disappointing 2020 season.

But there really is one reason above all others the Nats failed to make the playoffs this year. And it's the same reason they failed to make the playoffs in 2013, 2015 and 2018.

To paraphrase a politician's simplified message from nearly three decades ago: It's the rotation, stupid.

Of course, the biggest factor in the Nationals' 26-34 record this season was their underperforming rotation, which struggled like never before. Starters finished with a gaudy 5.38 ERA, which ranked 27th out of 30 major league clubs.

Other franchises might be built to overcome that. Not this one.

Look back through the Nationals' recent run as perennial contenders, and it's clear nothing has correlated more to their season-by-season success than the performance of their rotation. During the five years they reached the postseason (2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019), their rotation ranked no worse than fourth in the majors. During the four years they failed to qualify for the postseason (2013, 2015, 2018, 2020), their rotation ranked anywhere from seventh to 27th.

Mike Rizzo has long believed the best path to a championship starts with great starters. He saw it work in Arizona during his time as the Diamondbacks' scouting director. And since taking over as Nationals general manager, he has made it his No. 1 priority entering each season.

So the events of this past season, shortened to 60 games or not, was particularly troublesome for a Nats organization that isn't used to this kind of rotation-wide struggle.

Max Scherzer finished strong to lower his ERA to 3.74, but that was still the highest mark he had posted since 2012 with the Tigers. His 1.381 WHIP and 1.3 homers allowed per nine innings were the worst marks of his career. He threw more pitches per plate appearance (4.11) than in any of his five previous seasons in D.C.

"I felt like my pitch counts were getting out of control," Scherzer said. "Sometimes I was not able to go deep in games and guys are fouling me off. Some of those nuanced details of how teams are attacking me now, I'm going to have to go through the offseason and really try to evaluate how guys are approaching me, how they're attacking me, what's working and what's not in certain situations. ... But that's the fun part of this: You've got to go back and reinvent yourself. Because the rest of the league is going to be finding ways to attack me. You've got to match that kind of mentality back at them."

Scherzer at least took the mound every five days and made all 12 of his starts. Stephen Strasburg took the mound only twice and pitched only five innings before he was diagnosed with carpal tunnel neuritis in his right wrist and had season-ending surgery.

Both aces will be back in 2021, Scherzer for the final season of his seven-year, $210 million contract, Strasburg for the second season of his seven-year, $245 million deal. The organization is counting on them leading the way again, providing a distinct advantage over a 162-game marathon that wasn't there over a 60-game sprint.

"No doubt," manager Davey Martinez said. "I expect Stras to come back and make a full recovery. He feels really good right now. And Max is Max. I really believe with Max, he's built for a long season."

The Nationals need Patrick Corbin to return to form, too. The left-hander was hit hard this season, giving up a league-leading 85 hits while posting a 1.569 WHIP that ranked last among the majors' 40 qualifying starters.

"Maybe all year the ball just wasn't coming out as it normally does, not really sure why that was," said Corbin, who has four years left on his six-year, $140 million contract. "I just want to go into next year, hopefully a normal season where you are able to build up, get your arm strength there and be ready to make 33 starts."

The Nationals probably will be in the market for at least one starter this offseason, unlikely to pick up Aníbal Sánchez's $12 million club option. They'll want someone who can be counted on to provide quality innings over a full season and complement the big three at the top of the rotation.

The fifth and final spot, then, could come down to a spring training battle between Joe Ross, Austin Voth and Erick Fedde. Stop us if you've heard that one before.

The Nats had high hopes for that trio entering 2020, believing they had the depth needed to overcome the inevitable injuries to others in the rotation. But Ross opted out just before the start of summer training, Voth endured through a miserable season before finally putting together a couple of strong outings late and Fedde had an inconstant year as the emergency starter who finally got a full-time spot in the rotation.

Beyond that group are a handful of second-tier prospects who got a brief look this summer (Wil Crowe, Ben Braymer) and a couple of first-tier prospects who still need considerable development before they're deemed big-league-ready (Jackson Rutledge, Cade Cavalli).

Point is, unless they make some kind of headline-grabbing move this winter, the Nationals' fortunes next year are going to once again rest on the broad shoulders of the rotation they already have in place. They can only hope each performs better than he did this year.

"We're going to take stock and evaluate where we are as a team moving forward," Rizzo said. "But the quick snapshot that I have for 2021 is: We're going to be hell to play again, because we're going to have our big boys back on the mound. And with the tweaks we're going to make in the offseason, we're going to be competitive, and our goal is going to be to win the World Series."