A look at Baseball America's surprise mock draft O's selection

When Baseball America released its latest mock draft yesterday, it had a real surprise with the Orioles and the No. 2 pick. It was not Vanderbilt's Austin Martin or Asa Lacy of Texas A&M.

This mock had the Orioles taking high school outfielder Zac Veen from Orange, Fla. This would be part of a one-two approach in which the O's could sign Veen, get a top player and save some slot space to go well over slot with their No. 30 pick and get two top-rated talents.

It's a strategy that has worked before but surely has some risk. It worked before for current O's executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias when he led Houston's 2012 draft.

That year Houston had the first overall pick and took shortstop Carlos Correa. They saved money on Correa and used it on other players. Correa's slot amount was $7.2 million and he signed for $4.8 million. Lance McCullers Jr., taken No. 41 by Houston, had a slot amount of $1.259 million and signed over slot at $2.5 million. Current Oriole Rio Ruiz was drafted in the fourth round at No. 129 with a slot value of $360,200 for that pick. But he was signed to a bonus of $1.85 million, well over slot.

Houston saved $2.4 million on Correa and went about $1.2 million over for McCullers and about $1.5 million over on Ruiz.

Yesterday, in a video interview with J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, we discussed this latest speculation. At the end of this entry you can watch the entire interview.

"We have heard multiple people, who would seem to have some indication of this, theorize that the Orioles are at least examining the idea of taking someone at two who is a top talent but who is a guy that is not expected to go two," Cooper said. "Veen is an easy top 10 pick, but two would be very rich for Veen. When Mike Elias was with the Astros we saw this with the Carlos Correa draft.

"In the mock we have the Orioles then getting Jared Kelley, who is a mid-round-one-type talent, with their second pick (at No. 30). We are not saying this will absolutely happen. But we're saying it's one of the options, and this is a legit rumor we've heard."

The Orioles' slot amount for the No. 2 pick is $7,789,900. If they drafted Veen, who is ranked as the No. 7 prospect by Baseball America, they could save money with an underslot bonus. Even if they gave Veen No. 4 pick money, that would be $6,664,000, and for the No. 5 pick that would be $6,180,700. So they get a savings of about $1.1 million in the first scenario and $1.6 million in the second one.

Baseball America ranks Kelley, a high school right-hander from Texas, as the No. 12 prospect for this draft. A fastball that tops out from 97 to 99 mph leads observers to call him the most major league-ready prep pitcher in the draft.

The way this would work would be that a player like Kelley would let teams know of his bonus demands. He would then fall in the draft to the Orioles at No. 30.

The slot amount for the No. 15 pick, for instance, is $3,885,800. For the Orioles' No. 30 pick it is $2,365,500. The difference would come in the Veen savings. And by using what they are allotted for their top two picks, the O's could add players rated No. 7 and No. 12. And Kelley gets his mid-first-round bonus money.

It's an interesting strategy, but you better have backup plans and options in case the second player you want - we speculate on Kelley in this specific example - doesn't fall to you.

"In 2012, the Astros took Carlos Correa, who was not considered the likely 1/1 but he was considered in the mix for the top five," Cooper said. "Saved some money there and they later drafted and spent more on Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz. In the McCullers case, it's really paid off for them. That is something the Orioles could do."

He adds that taking Veen at No. 2 would not be a huge reach.

"This is not taking a guy who we expect to be on the board at 10 and taking him at two," Cooper said. "That's taking a guy we wouldn't be shocked to see at pick four, pick five, pick six. Seven maybe being his floor.".

Cooper also feels the above strategy could work with a variety of players. If the O's used such a strategy it would not rise or fall on the hopes of one player falling to them.

"In this class, there absolutely are going to be high school players, very talented high school players, with significant asking prices, who are going to be on the board," he said. "So, you may miss out on your first pick for what you want to do with this. But I will tell you right now I feel very comfortable in saying in a five-round draft where some teams probably aren't going to spend their full allotment, there will be plenty of talent available for a team that wants to do something like this at the top of the draft. To take guys who are more talented than a second- or third-round talent with a later pick. This year I fully expect there will be high school players who are second- or third-round talent who simply will not get drafted. Because they are looking for X number of dollars, no team is comfortable with going to that point, so they just go on to school."

Meanwhile in the latest mock from MLBPipeline.com, that outlet still has the O's selecting Martin with the No. 2 overall selection.

Check out the entire interview with Cooper here.