A look at the 2016 Orioles' power potential

One thing we probably can count on yet again from the Orioles is a lot of home runs. They figure once again to rank among the major league team homer leaders this season.

In fact, since 2012, the Orioles lead the majors with 854 home runs. That is 62 homers ahead of the next closest team, the Toronto Blue Jays at 792.

The Orioles recorded their fourth consecutive season with at least 200 home runs last year. It marks the longest such streak in club history and the O's currently hold the longest active streak of 200-homer seasons. The Orioles have four straight seasons of at least 210 homers.

We certainly don't know which players will start for sure at which positions next year on Jan. 18. But using the potential lineup I projected yesterday, let's take a look at how much longball damage they may be able to do.

Catcher Matt Wieters: He has hit 22 three times in his career. The projection for 2016 is 18.

First baseman Chris Davis: He has averaged 39.8 the last four years and led the majors in homers two of the last three years. A projection of 38 may actually be conservative.

Second baseman Jonathan Schoop: Here is an interesting case. Had he stayed healthy last year, based on his season stats, he would have hit 29 homers with 77 RBIs with 600 at-bats.

After the 2013 season, Manny Machado had 858 career at-bats and had hit 21 career homers. After the 2015 season, Schoop has 774 career at-bats and 32 home runs. No one needs to remind you that Manny hit 35 in 2015. He grew into power and Schoop is doing the same. He hit 15 in 305 at-bats. I will project 25 for Johnny baseball.

Shortstop J.J. Hardy: Another interesting case. Especially after he hit just 17 total homers the last two years. He had averaged 26 the previous three seasons. Hardy seems incredibly motivated to stay healhy and bounce back at bat next year. Let's project 12, knowing he is capable of double that, if not more.

Third baseman Manny Machado: I will make the call for 32 after he hit 35 last year. Will teams look at his 2015 success and find other ways to attack him? It's a game of constant adjustments but the sky seems to be the limit for Machado.

Left fielder Hyun Soo Kim: Who can predict for sure how his Korean Baseball Organization stats will translate to the major leagues? We don't even know for sure he will play every day. If he gets regular at-bats, let's make the call for 10 after he hit 28 in the KBO last season.

Center fielder Adam Jones: Jones hit 32 and 33 in 2012 and 2013 but the last two years those numbers have been 29 and 27. If he can avoid the various injuries that nagged him last season, 30 seems very reasonable.

Right fielder Nolan Reimold: Of course, we don't know if Reimold will be in right. The O's could add another outfielder or someone else could be in this spot in either a full- or part-time role. If he played regularly, I think 15 is reasonable. Reimold hit 15 in 358 at-bats as a rookie in 2009, but health has kept him from getting that many at-bats in a single year since then.

Designated hitter Mark Trumbo: He has hit 29 or more three times. Some feel safe in predicting 30 or more at Camden Yards. Let's go with 25 and realize more is certainly possible.

The projections for those nine players add up to 205 homers. That is pretty impressive. A lineup capable of producing 10 or more homers from every spot. A lineup with five players who have hit 30 or more at least once in the major leagues. We all know the Orioles offense has not been one with much variety in recent years. They don't steal many bases, need more OBP and strike out too much. It is what it is and more of the same seems likely next year.

That is not to say they cannot at least make some gains in the OBP department. In his best years with the Orioles, Davis posted OBPs of .361 and .370. Kim has a KBO career OBP of .406 and was at .438 last season. Machado went from .324 in 2014 to .359 last year and his OBP has gone up every year he's been in the league. Schoop made big gains in this department last season.

The Orioles had a team OBP of .307 last year and that was ahead of only Chicago at .306 and Minnesota at .305 among American League teams. The league average was .318. The O's did score 713 runs (league average was 710) and we can figure they do at least that well again with this lineup.

The Orioles are good at hitting homers. That worries some fans and, yes, you can't always rely on homers. But they are playing to a strength here.

Over the last four seasons, teams have hit 200 homers or more 11 times, four by the Orioles. Since 2012 the Orioles have produced four of their top seven team single-season homer totals. A lot more than homers are needed to win, but we also can't deny that home runs held some importance and likely has been a key part of the O's leading the AL in wins since 2012.

None of this addresses pitching. Yes, I know all about that. This was just an entry on the lineup and homers. But keep in mind, no matter if someone is added or not, four starting pitchers return. If they are all in the rotation next season, they are going to need to pitch better collectively. That was always going to be true and we have seen all four do that previously.

But when it comes to homers, the 2016 Orioles look to be as solid as the O's clubs over the last four years.