Adding more talent: What the O's might do in the upcoming MLB Draft

After making their first pick in the top five and twice having the No. 1 overall selection between 2019 and 2022, maybe selecting down in the MLB Draft has become the new normal in Baltimore.

The winning Orioles selected No. 17 with their top pick in 2023 and took Vanderbilt outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. This year the Orioles top pick is No. 22 overall. It is their lowest since they selected University of Illinois right-hander Cody Sedlock No. 27 in 2016.

The four players the O’s picked high in the draft starting in 2019 in Adley Rutschman, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday, have all played for the Orioles this season.

This year the O’s have four top 100 picks with selections at No. 22, No. 32, No. 61 and No. 97. The first is their first rounder and the second the Prospect Promotion Incentive pick they got when Gunnar Henderson won Rookie of the Year last year. The third is their second-round pick and fourth will be a third-round selection.

I asked Jim Callis of MLB.com and MLBPipeline.com, how the draft looks in that 20 to 40 range?

“It’s kind of a mess to be honest," Callis said. "This draft is kind of a slightly below average draft. The strength of the draft is college hitters. There is just not depth in terms of everything else.

“By the time we get to pick 22, there are about 10 guys on the first tier of the draft, and they will all be gone. There could be 20 college hitters taken the first round. That is the strength of the draft. So that reflects both that strength and that the other demographics are not particularly strong.

“So the Orioles will be sifting through whatever college hitters might be on the board. And we talk about this every year, you don’t draft for need. But it’s clear with the Orioles, long-term, short term they have so many position players that they could use pitching.”

So what if the O’s do go for a pitcher there, even though they have not taken a pitcher in round one under the Mike Elias front office.

“So I think they would be open to, maybe the perfect world for the Orioles they won’t get one of the top three college pitchers. Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), Trey Yesavage (East Carolina) will be gone. But then maybe they get a shot at Brody Brecht from Iowa. Maybe they get a shot Jurrangelo Cijntje (Mississippi State), the switch-pitcher (he throws left and right).

“Last year I think we talked about Hursten Waldrep from Florida, who I thought might be the best pitcher on the board and who already has pitched in the big leagues, but they passed on him for Enrique Bradfield. You don’t draft for need in the first round so maybe I am wrong.

“Perhaps they do get a pitcher, but Elias also has to be looking at some of those college bats and maybe the second group of high school shortstops.”

I asked Callis if a team expected to make the playoffs and maybe win 100 games can sometimes draft for need? As he pointed out a pitcher taken in the 2023 draft is already in the majors. It can happen fast sometimes for a team. 

“I think you do. I also think when you set up your board and pick 22 you may get someone you have ranked like 15^th on your board, someone they like better than other teams. Sometimes though after the first several players they may be groups of players that you evaluate close together and maybe you set it up with pitchers ahead of hitters.

“But most teams will tell you, first round, they are taking the best available player.," he said.

Covering many of the bases here, if the O’s opt for a college hitter with their top pick as they have four out of five years with Elias, who could be at No. 22?

“You don’t know who is going to be there. It could LSU’s third baseman Tommy White, who has hit I think 75 homers in three seasons of college. He is a better hitter than people realize. There is Vance Hunneycutt from North Carolina, who probably has the best tools in the college class, but also comes with big swing and miss so it’s risk-reward there. You have Kaelen Culpepper, shortstop Kansas State. You have Billy Amick, third baseman from Tennessee.

“You have catchers like Walker Janek of Sam Houston. Caleb Lomavita of Cal and Malcolm Moore of Stanford.

“Six of the top 10 players in this draft are college hitters. And then there are probably another 15 or 16 college hitters that could go in the first round. I would say, quick math here, of that 15 or 16 that could go next, probably six or so will be gone at least. By the time the Orioles pick, there could be a dozen of those college hitters gone, so you just don’t know who is going to get there. There are going to be plenty of options. Just which one do the Orioles like?"